2025年港股步入估值修复与结构重塑并行阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化成为核心特征。历经此 前三年调整，恒生指数形成显著的估值洼地，南向资金创纪录净流入与外资转向共同重塑资金格局。 日前，中信证券海外策略首席分析师徐广鸿在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2026年港股将在政策红 利与外部风险博弈中开启第二轮估值修复，内外因素共振有望进一步打开上行空间。在此背景下，投资 需紧扣"业绩确定性+估值弹性"主线，科技、医药、资源品与必选消费四大赛道，凭借政策支撑、产业 景气或供需优势，成为把握港股修复行情的核心方向。 美联储政策成为短期最大变量，徐广鸿认为，市场对12月"鹰派"降息存在担忧，但机构判断此次议息会 议或为"鹰派"恐慌顶点，后续随着美联储主席提名博弈展开，若未出现极端"鹰派"候选人，市场将重回 宽松交易逻辑。 估值洼地凸显 今年以来，港股三大指数震荡上行。Wind数据显示，截至12月9日，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒 生科技指数分别累计涨幅为49.20%、22.59%、24.32%。 "当前港股正处于估值修复与结构重塑的关键阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化构成市场核心特 征。"徐广鸿表示，从估值维度 ...

● 本报记者 谭丁豪 2025年港股步入估值修复与结构重塑并行阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化成为核心特征。历经此 前三年调整，恒生指数形成显著的估值洼地，南向资金创纪录净流入与外资转向共同重塑资金格局。 日前，中信证券海外策略首席分析师徐广鸿在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2026年港股将在政策红 利与外部风险博弈中开启第二轮估值修复，内外因素共振有望进一步打开上行空间。在此背景下，投资 需紧扣"业绩确定性+估值弹性"主线，科技、医药、资源品与必选消费四大赛道，凭借政策支撑、产业 景气或供需优势，成为把握港股修复行情的核心方向。 估值洼地凸显 今年以来，港股三大指数震荡上行。数据显示，截至12月9日，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科 技指数分别累计涨幅为49.20%、22.59%、24.32%。 "当前港股正处于估值修复与结构重塑的关键阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化构成市场核心特 征。"徐广鸿表示，从估值维度看，2021年春节后至2024年1月底，恒生指数经历了连续三年的"杀估 值"行情，累计下跌超50%，持续下跌累积的悲观情绪导致估值压制，甚至对潜在风险过度计价。2024 年起市场迈入估值与业绩双 ...

Core Insights - Brazil's soybean exports to China are at a high level, reflecting the country's increasing strategic position in the international agricultural supply chain [1][2] - The current export advantage of Brazil is attributed to enhanced structural supply capabilities rather than opportunistic factors [2] - Brazil's agricultural export strategy will be crucial for maintaining its sustainable position in the global supply landscape [1] Export Performance - In June, Brazil exported 10.62 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 86.6% of China's total soybean imports for the month, a 9.2% increase from 9.73 million tons in the same month last year [2] - For the first half of the year, Brazil's soybean exports to China totaled 31.86 million tons, while the U.S. exported 16.15 million tons, with both countries together accounting for over 98% of China's soybean imports [2] - Despite significant growth in June, Brazil's total soybean exports to China for the first half of the year decreased by 7.5% compared to the previous year [4] Market Dynamics - The Brazilian soybean production for the 2024/25 season is projected to reach 147.5 million tons, a 4% decrease from the previous season, but still near historical highs due to improved climate conditions [3] - The depreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar has enhanced the international price competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans [3] - Forecasts suggest that Brazil's soybean exports could reach 8.7 million tons by July 2025, significantly higher than 7.36 million tons in the same period last year [3] Structural Changes and Risks - The reliance on a single market for soybean exports poses increasing risks, with experts warning of a potential slowdown in export pace in the third quarter due to global inventory levels and fluctuating demand expectations [4] - Brazil is facing medium to long-term risks related to soybean price volatility, trade policy adjustments, and extreme climate conditions, necessitating diversification of export markets [5] - Efforts are underway to strengthen agricultural trade agreements with East Asian countries and improve non-tariff barriers to enhance market access [5] Future Outlook - Brazil is transitioning from being a global supply hub to a stable strategic exporter, with a focus on improving agricultural infrastructure efficiency and enhancing the value-added of export products [6] - The Brazilian government is actively working to deepen agricultural cooperation with China, emphasizing the importance of diversifying import sources and enhancing traceability mechanisms [5][6] - The ability to negotiate effectively in a complex international landscape will be crucial for Brazil's future role and influence in the global food market [6]

Core Insights - The polysilicon industry is experiencing widespread losses as prices remain below production costs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Historical low operating rates have been recorded for polysilicon, industrial silicon, and silicon wafers, with respective rates of 41.9%, 38.6%, and 44.3% [1] - The average monthly production has dropped to only 100,000 tons, with the lowest operating load of the top five companies at 24.1% [1] Price Trends - Prices initially stabilized after a slight increase from January to April, averaging between 40,600 to 41,700 yuan per ton, before declining to 34,400 yuan per ton from late April to the end of June [1] - The average price for the first half of the year was 36,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.8% [1] Production and Inventory - Domestic production is projected to reach 1.35 million tons for the year, with an expected increase in inventory by approximately 30,000 tons in the second half if production resumes as planned [1] - Inventory levels have decreased from a high of 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons by the end of June 2025, with a reduction of 31,000 tons in the first half of the year [1] Industry Response - The industry is implementing various measures such as reducing internal competition, capacity mergers, and performance standards to adjust supply and demand dynamics and restructure the market [1]