Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel market maintains a volatile state, lacking a clear price - rebound driver. The cost - collapse narrative of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has increased. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited. It is recommended that industrial customers participate in hedging [6][7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the steel tender prices have been finalized, and the prices are temporarily stable. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - In the iron ore market, the basis has rapidly shrunk. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products showed different changes in prices, increases, and decreases. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated on Monday, and spot prices varied. The transaction volume rebounded to over 100,000 tons. The cost collapse of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a futures - at - discount - to - spot structure, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventory. Pay attention to short - term spreads for arbitrage on the futures market [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has exceeded 90%. The prices of some coking coal varieties have rebounded, and the prices of Mongolian coal in some regions have changed. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is priced at 1140 (-10), and the coking coal price index is 937.6 (-1.2) [6]. - **Futures Market**: The black chain index continued to oscillate strongly. The coking coal price closed above the 800 mark, mainly affected by strict safety inspections in the main producing areas. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Industrial customers are recommended to actively participate in hedging [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Tender Prices**: The new round of ferrosilicon tender price of a North China steel mill is 5500 yuan/ton (tax - included, ex - factory acceptance), a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 290 tons. The June silicomanganese alloy tender price of a large North China steel mill is 5650 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price and a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the May price, with a purchase quantity of 1700 tons, a 100 - ton increase compared to the previous month [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, but market confidence has slightly stabilized. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a long position in ferrosilicon and a short position in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading with options [7]. Iron Ore - **Basis and Transportation**: The basis has rapidly shrunk to 20 on Monday, and the optimal deliverable is brbf. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage [7]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price has fallen to narrow the basis. The molten iron output has slightly increased, and the steel mill inventory has significantly rebounded. Although the downstream steel demand in the off - season is better than expected, if the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of investment opportunities in China, highlighting the transition from traditional investment-driven sectors to innovation-driven industries, particularly in the context of the new economic landscape shaped by artificial intelligence and technological advancements [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Economic Transition - In 2003, the "Five Golden Flowers" represented key investment sectors in China, driven by rapid urbanization and industrialization, with public funds successfully identifying value in steel, automotive, petrochemical, electricity, and banking [1]. - The current economic environment has shifted from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, with significant changes in economic speed, core drivers, industry trends, and policy directions [2]. Group 2: Emerging Sectors and Investment Focus - Potential new sectors that may emerge as the "Five Golden Flowers" in the current economic context include semiconductors, AI, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and new consumption [2][3]. - The financial market's risk appetite has increased, and the government emphasizes balancing quality improvement with total volume growth, creating a stable environment for innovation [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Fund managers are focusing on AI-enabled sectors such as electronics, internet, software, automotive, and machinery, driven by a surge in automation demand [5]. - The rise of domestic technology and the push for self-sufficiency in computing power are seen as critical investment opportunities, particularly in the context of global trade tensions [6]. - New consumption patterns and innovative business models are emerging, driven by changes in consumer demographics and preferences, presenting growth opportunities for companies that adapt to these trends [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The investment landscape is characterized by the need to navigate potential disruptions in industry competition due to new technologies, as well as the risk of speculative bubbles in certain sectors [8]. - Identifying genuine growth versus speculative hype is crucial, with a focus on companies that demonstrate real consumer demand and sustainable business models [9]. Group 5: Future of Fund Management - The introduction of the "Public Fund High-Quality Development Action Plan" is expected to reshape the investment ecosystem, emphasizing absolute valuation and long-term performance metrics [10][11]. - Fund managers will increasingly prioritize shareholder returns, focusing on cash flow, competitive advantages, and dividend capabilities in their investment strategies [11].

Core Insights - Zhang Jiansheng, a fund manager at Baodao Fund, has shifted his investment strategy towards Hong Kong stocks, increasing their representation in his portfolio from 3 to over 50% by Q2 2024, indicating a positive outlook on the market [1] - His investment philosophy emphasizes a bottom-up stock selection framework, focusing on competitive barriers, industry dynamics, and valuation metrics [1][2] - Zhang's approach to valuation is unique, prioritizing the implied return over a five-year horizon rather than traditional price-to-earnings ratios, which he believes provides a more rational assessment of a company's worth [2] Stock Selection Criteria - Competitive barriers are deemed essential; companies lacking these barriers, regardless of growth rates, are not considered for heavy investment [1][3] - Industry supply-demand dynamics are critical for risk management, with Zhang highlighting the domestic innovative drug sector as an example of improving investment value due to favorable conditions [2] - Cash flow value is prioritized over market sentiment, as demonstrated by a past missed opportunity in telecom operators due to an overemphasis on short-term negatives [2][3] Focus Areas and Market Trends - Zhang identifies three key sectors for investment: 3D stacking technology, cloud computing, and edge AI, anticipating significant growth driven by technological advancements [3] - The changing pricing logic in the Hong Kong stock market, influenced by increasing southbound capital, presents new opportunities for bottom-up stock selection [3] - Despite the rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index, many quality assets in the Hong Kong market remain undervalued, suggesting potential for future appreciation [3]