Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting indicates a positive trend in the economy, but emphasizes the need to solidify the recovery amidst increasing external shocks [1] - The meeting introduces the concept of "coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles," addressing unilateralism and bullying tactics from the U.S. [2] - The focus shifts from the "six stabilizations" to "four stabilizations," prioritizing employment while also emphasizing the resilience of enterprises [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy maintains a proactive stance, with new requirements for accelerated implementation and effective utilization of policies [3] - Fiscal policy will expedite the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, while monetary policy may include timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3] - The meeting outlines a new policy toolkit to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [3] Group 3 - The meeting conveys a strong confidence in China's economic resilience, asserting that high-quality development will navigate uncertainties from external environments [4]

首先，"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，意味着"攘外"和"安内"紧密联系，存量政策要用（兜住 对内底线）、增量政策要等（取决于外交成果）；其次，"办好自己的事"永远不会错，"以高质量发展 的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"；最后，针对外部环境的不利影响，会议既强调底线思 维，也做了诸多部署，为下一阶段的政策方向给出指引。 一、会议部署的核心脉络 按照逻辑脉络展开，二季度将是"外交密集期+存量加速期+经济观察期+增量储备期"。 外交是头等大事，存量政策要用，增量政策要等。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 4月政治局会议通稿的脉络非常清晰，充分展现了高层对当前形势的冷静判断和应对方略。 大规模增量政策的储备和推出需要观察和时间，或要等到年中附近，一些既定和有针对性的增量政策有 望更早出现。 外交密集期。 外交是当前的头等大事，是降低外部风险、化不确定性为确定性的治本之策。 会议强 调"同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径"，4月9日召开的首次中央周边工作会议 明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 对美外交，我们已经展现过诚意，外交部发言人近期表示"打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开"；对非美国 家外交，我 ...