当前我国经济正处于转型升级的关键期，外部环境复杂严峻，内部结构性矛盾依然存在。就业总量压力 与结构性矛盾交织，经营主体特别是中小微企业面临成本上升、需求不足等多重挑战，市场运行机制仍 需完善，社会预期偏弱的情况尚未根本扭转。受访的多位专家学者表示，需要"四稳"互为条件、相互支 撑，为实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长奠定坚实基础，推动中国经济行稳致远。 "稳"字当头筑根基 "四稳"是协同并进的有机整体。稳就业是民生底线，稳企业是经济基础，稳市场是运行保障，稳预期是 信心关键。 "稳固实现'四稳'，仍然是目前经济运行的艰巨任务，所以明年仍然会在今年基础上强调'四稳'。"劳动 经济学会就业促进专委会理事、清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院研究员刘培林说，明年我国将从财 政政策、货币政策方面继续发力实现"四稳"。同时，中央经济工作会议提出要制定实施城乡居民增收计 划，对于"四稳"有重要作用。 如何持续发力实现稳中求进，中小企业的作用至关重要。据了解，当前中小企业整体处于恢复发展与转 型升级并行的关键阶段。一方面，随着宏观政策持续发力，市场信心正在逐步修复，部分行业呈回暖态 势；另一方面，企业依然面临需求收缩、成本上升 ...

Economic Goals and Strategies - The 2026 economic work will maintain high target settings to ensure sustainable high-quality development, balancing "hard power" and "soft power" while optimizing resource utilization[3][19] - The growth target for 2026 is expected to remain high, reflecting the resilience of economic growth and guiding positive societal expectations[4][19] Hard and Soft Power Development - The enhancement of national comprehensive strength requires a balance between economic, technological, and defense "hard power" and cultural, institutional, and diplomatic "soft power"[5][20] - Policies supporting the development of "soft power" are anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on quality cultural products and services[5][20] Supply-Side Reforms and Employment - The new round of supply-side reforms will focus on optimizing supply and utilizing existing capacity, addressing "overcapacity" as a resource to be developed[7][24] - Emphasis on "stabilizing employment" as a priority, with policies aimed at creating new job opportunities and addressing structural unemployment among youth[9][29] Policy Implementation and Coordination - Effective policy implementation is crucial, requiring sustained efforts over time to ensure that policies benefit individuals and businesses[10][30] - The focus on policy synergy emphasizes the need for new policies to align with existing ones, avoiding conflicts and ensuring comprehensive implementation[11][31] Domestic Market Strengthening - The domestic market must not only be large but also resilient, with a focus on enhancing internal demand and ensuring supply chain security[12][35] - Building a strong domestic market involves diversifying supply and fostering innovation to make consumption a leading force in domestic demand growth[12][35] Social Welfare and Living Standards - Continuous improvement of living standards is essential, with a focus on social security mechanisms to provide a safety net for citizens[13][36] - The government aims to enhance overall living quality while addressing specific local needs through grassroots initiatives[13][36] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include fiscal and monetary policies falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and complex external environments[14][37][38]

型面 : :: 03 n to work at the state 会社会演变频 作板人展家出11 服区 Jane, 新州福建合被曝 在进出品做到据。这就"指出 国,区都产业提种链条,2 会如图,在盘产业制糖不转,通过 新疆区域 -- 建国合媒体 -- 建筑 SS 全部部,用窗 GE 度和EA B-Eball 与图云合画片 活力年浦南7 线视频在灯头面直有计费 力量高雄康仪器械背景湖路 者由口语都播放本年度安徽| 费占法证书的原作资立场 属于病院"要意子"基礎生活人生 超级关键,进力演练-其中美 糖果"江南的歌"皮印度第一定为推动者 的重要有,但就越的波音和和歌曲剧 中世童,安国了 tive ME we'll 加速建设提代安产业体育 HIX*斯加 MHOC 民会共会議案及合宿務,所 便势,都有建立大学家两副部 产品键,�ME 高峰的发展 达都和生记,也有破禁令相 123)"藏民在洪夏依基和肯,都 KANNE BALL - SAMME 酸*产业表的,无任建本了 0. 每次"批风廉达出 年前重企业理基层 , 体生 "在面, 面积分是原料理的, 如 员机期,引成进会供波罗 "A在體育,以康更优"用情设 (1) 2. ...

Economic Stability and Growth - The core principle of China's governance is to maintain stability while seeking progress, emphasizing a balanced approach to economic work [1][10] - The Politburo meeting highlighted that China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong advantages and resilience, supporting long-term positive trends [1][3] Economic Performance Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with a quarterly growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, with the core CPI increasing by 0.7% [5] - The trade balance remained stable, with import and export values reaching record highs, and foreign exchange reserves exceeding $3.2 trillion [6] Employment and Business Support - The government is focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year, achieving 58% of the annual target [11][12] - Policies aimed at supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have benefited over 3.6 million businesses, with industrial enterprises' revenue increasing by 2.5% year-on-year [11][12] Market Dynamics - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248.654 billion yuan, up by 2.8% [12] - The manufacturing sector's production and operational expectations improved, with the manufacturing activity expectation index rising to 52.6% in July [12] Global Economic Contribution - China is a major contributor to global economic growth, maintaining a contribution rate of around 30% to world economic growth [17] - The country has seen significant foreign direct investment, with a total of 4.7 trillion yuan from foreign investors from 2021 to May 2025, surpassing the total during the previous five-year plan [18] High-Level Opening and Green Development - China is committed to high-level opening-up, providing new opportunities for global development, as evidenced by significant foreign investments in various sectors [18] - The country is also leading global green development initiatives, sharing its ecological civilization experiences with other nations [19]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that "stability" is the primary objective for China's economy, which is projected to exceed 130 trillion yuan in 2024, amidst changing internal and external environments [1][11]. Policy Direction - The policy governance goal has shifted from "six stabilizations" to "four stabilizations" (stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations), reflecting continuity and precision in policy focus [2][12]. - "Stabilizing employment" remains the top priority, with over 17.7 million new urban laborers and 12.22 million college graduates expected in 2025, indicating unprecedented employment pressure [2][12]. - The new policy framework integrates "stabilizing finance" into "stabilizing enterprises" and "stabilizing markets," focusing on the micro-foundations of economic operations [2][13]. Economic Operation - In the first half of the year, the economy achieved a growth rate of 5.4%, driven by export effects, infrastructure investment from local debts, and consumption subsidy policies [3][15]. - Exports from January to May increased by 6% year-on-year, supported by a rise in non-U.S. exports and a "grab export" effect [3][17]. - The economy faces multiple pressures in the second half, including weakened export momentum due to tariff uncertainties and sluggish recovery in the real estate market [3][35]. Key Areas: Export, Investment, and Consumption - Export enterprises are under pressure from policy uncertainties and challenges in transitioning from export to domestic sales [4][46]. - Investment remains necessary despite export pressures, with high savings supporting high investment, particularly in high-tech and infrastructure sectors [4][48]. - Consumption is a long-term issue, requiring measures to increase income and address consumption bottlenecks, with significant potential for service consumption growth [4][46]. Recommendations - To stabilize exports, the government should address information asymmetries and support enterprises in transitioning to domestic sales [5][46]. - For consumption and investment, enhancing the direct effectiveness of consumption subsidies and stabilizing the real estate and capital markets are crucial [5][46]. - Strengthening the internal economic momentum through policies that improve living standards and facilitate urbanization is essential [5][46].

Group 1 - China's economy has shown a good start in the first quarter, with solid progress in high-quality development, but the foundation for sustained recovery needs further strengthening due to increasing external shocks [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as a response to current international and domestic situations [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of macroeconomic policies as effective means to stabilize the economy, especially in the context of global economic downturn expectations [4] Group 2 - The focus on stabilizing employment includes promoting the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector and developing the service industry to create more high-quality job opportunities [2] - The government aims to optimize the business environment to boost enterprise confidence and improve operational performance, particularly for those facing challenges due to international trade conflicts [2][4] - There is a call for a comprehensive approach to enhance domestic demand, with an emphasis on increasing the income of middle and low-income groups to drive consumption growth [7][8] Group 3 - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies, including accelerating the issuance and use of local government special bonds to support growth [4] - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining ample liquidity and reducing financing costs for micro entities to support the real economy [4] - The need for a unified national market and the cultivation of new driving forces through reform and innovation is emphasized to adapt to new production capacities [5]

Economic Performance - In April, China's total import and export value reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports at 22,645 billion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 15,745 billion yuan (up 0.8%) [1] - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is highlighted by a 9.5% increase in electromechanical product exports, which accounted for 60.1% of total exports [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors seeing increases of 9.8% and 10.0%, respectively [2] - The service sector production index also rose by 6.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [2] Domestic Consumption - China's retail sales of consumer goods totaled 37,174 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.24% [2] - The consumption upgrade policies have shown effectiveness, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (38.8%), cultural and office supplies (33.5%), furniture (26.9%), and communication equipment (19.9%) [2] Price Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a need for further stimulation of consumption and economic vitality [3] Trade Relations - Following the Geneva trade talks, the cancellation or suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. took effect on May 14, leading to a recovery in trade orders [3] - The domestic tourism sector showed strong performance during the "May Day" holiday, with 314 million domestic trips and total tourism revenue of 1,802.69 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and 8.0%, respectively [3]

Macro Strategy and North Exchange - The macro policy remains stable with LPR unchanged at 3.10% for 1-year and 3.60% for 5-year [5] - Industrial enterprise profits showed a year-on-year increase of 2.60% in March, marking the first positive growth since the previous year [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for high-quality development to address international economic and trade struggles, focusing on "Four Stabilities" [7][8] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, with a deficit rate set at around 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [8] - Monetary policy will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with new structural monetary policy tools to support innovation and consumption [10][11] A-Share Market Overview - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, most A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.38% [15] - The market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation state due to the recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US and the upcoming May Day holiday [15][23] - The report indicates a "slow bull" market trend for A-shares in 2025, with a focus on technology, green energy, consumption, and infrastructure sectors [23] North Exchange Market Overview - As of April 25, 2025, the North Exchange had 265 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 755.47 billion yuan, an increase of 1.53% from the previous week [24] - The liquidity in the North Exchange decreased, with average trading volume dropping by 9.79% to 1.384 billion shares [25] - The North Exchange's 50 Index closed at 1300.19 points, down 2.16% from the previous week [26] Industry Insights: Food and Beverage - Salted Fish reported a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan and a net profit of 640 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.89% and 26.53% respectively [34] - The company is focusing on core product categories with strong growth, particularly in spicy snacks and baked goods, with significant revenue increases [35] - Salted Fish is accelerating its overseas expansion, with a projected revenue of 6.678 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 25.9% year-on-year [38] Industry Insights: Medical Devices - The sales of ultrasound imaging devices showed a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with sales revenue increasing by 87.95% year-on-year [40] - The report highlights a shift towards domestic brands, with domestic sales accounting for 37.79% of the market share in 2024, up from 34.20% in 2023 [42] - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic ultrasound device manufacturers like Mindray and KAILI Medical, as the market for these devices is expected to continue recovering [48]

Group 1 - The central government has introduced the concept of "Four Stabilities" for the first time, which includes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1][2][4] - Stabilizing employment is aimed at increasing residents' income, which in turn drives consumption and stabilizes enterprise production [2][3] - Stabilizing enterprises not only effectively absorbs employment but also enriches product supply, enhancing market vitality [3][4] Group 2 - Stabilizing the market involves creating a predictable investment and consumption environment, which itself fosters positive expectations [4][6] - The focus on stabilizing expectations is essential to mobilize societal enthusiasm and fully leverage both stock and incremental policies [6]

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for high-quality development to address the uncertainties arising from external shocks [1] - The meeting reiterated the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations as key points for economic work [1] - Structural monetary policy is expected to play a greater role in guiding financial resources to support the "four stabilizations" [1] Group 2 - Traditional monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions still hold significance in signaling appropriate monetary easing to stabilize market expectations [1] - The meeting proposed the creation of new structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign trade stability [1] - Existing tools like the technological innovation relending and inclusive elderly care special relending are considered temporary, with expectations for the central bank to enhance support through measures like extending terms and optimizing lending conditions [1][2]