智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑渣打集团(02888)净利息收入预期改善，该行上调公司2026 年/2027年经调营业收入预测2.7%/3.8%至219/225亿美元;维持2026年经调归母普通股净利润基本不变， 上调公司2027年经调归母普通股净利润预测1.7%至56亿美元。公司当前交易于1.2x/1.1x 2026E/2027E P/B。综合考虑业绩预期与市场风险偏好变化，该行小幅上调公司目标价6.6%至227.27港元，对应 1.3x/1.2x 2026E/2027E P/B与14.8%的上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 中金主要观点如下： 股息超预期，重视股东回报 公司4Q25单季净利息收入环比+8%，同比-1%，高于一致预期7.5%。主要由于4Q25 HIBOR高于预期， 带动全年净利息收入YoY +0.8%。向前看，公司预计2026年按货币敞口结构计算的加权平均利率将下降 44bp，为控制信用成本而进行的零售部门信贷组合结构优化也将对2026年NII产生约2%的负面影响，综 合考虑信贷规模增长，2026年NII预计与2025年大致持平。 公司4Q25非息收入环比-21.2%，同比+2.3%，低 ...

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Group is focusing on expanding its presence in ASEAN and the Middle East while maintaining a strong foundation in Asia, benefiting from a stable recovery in profitability and high overall return rates, with a significant stock price increase of over 250% in 2023 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, Standard Chartered's total assets reached nearly $914 billion, a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] - The current Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) has improved to 16.5%, exceeding the official guidance of 13% for the year, driven by high non-interest income contributions and low credit costs [2] - The projected net profit growth rates for Standard Chartered from 2025 to 2027 are 25.1%, 16.9%, and 16.2% respectively, with a target valuation of 1.40 times the 2026 price-to-book ratio, indicating a potential upside of 23% [4] Group 2: Revenue Drivers - Non-interest income is expected to remain stable at around 50%, supported by transaction banking, financial markets, and wealth management, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5% in wealth management revenue from 2022 to 2024 [2] - The bank's structural hedging tools, including interest rate swaps and long-term bonds, amount to $75 billion, with an average interest rate of 3.6%, limiting the impact of potential interest rate cuts on net interest income [3] Group 3: Risk Management - Standard Chartered has limited exposure to commercial real estate in China, with real estate loans accounting for only 0.6% of total loans, and a high non-performing loan coverage ratio of 89% [3] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio stands at 1.93%, a decrease of nearly 300 basis points since 2015, with a provision coverage ratio of 80%, significantly higher than peers [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Standard Chartered Group [5][9]. Core Views - Standard Chartered Group is a globally positioned international bank with a strong focus on Asia, actively embracing emerging market opportunities, particularly in ASEAN and the Middle East. The bank's total assets reached approximately $914 billion as of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [5][22]. - The bank's return on tangible equity (ROTE) has shown a consistent upward trend, reaching 16.5% in 9M25, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability and shareholder returns [8][11]. - The report highlights the bank's strong non-interest income contribution, which stabilizes revenue amidst fluctuating interest rates, and its limited exposure to risks in the Chinese real estate sector [8][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Presence and Market Focus - Standard Chartered operates in 54 markets globally, with a significant emphasis on Asia, contributing over 64% of the group's revenue and 72% of pre-tax profit in 2024. The bank is strategically focusing on high-growth regions such as ASEAN and the Middle East [5][22][25]. 2. Financial Performance and Profitability - The bank's revenue is projected to grow from $17.38 billion in 2023 to $21.08 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.25% for 2023 and 7.03% for 2025. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from $3.47 billion in 2023 to $5.07 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 25.11% [6][9]. - The report anticipates a stable credit cost of around 0.2% in 2024, with a low non-performing loan ratio of 1.93% as of Q3 2025, indicating strong asset quality management [8][46]. 3. Business Segments - The bank's revenue is primarily driven by its Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) segment, which contributes over 60% of total revenue, while Wealth Management and Retail Banking provide stable contributions of around 38% [5][31][35]. - Non-interest income has increased significantly, accounting for nearly 50% of total adjusted revenue, driven by strong performance in transaction banking, financial markets, and wealth management [8][46]. 4. Investment Analysis - The report projects a comprehensive return rate exceeding 7% for 2026, positioning Standard Chartered as a leader in the H-share banking sector. The anticipated growth in net profit and ROTE is expected to drive valuation recovery, with a target price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.40 for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 23% [9][10][11].