Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On February 24, the main coke contract closed at 1,634.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.30%. The position of the main contract was 39,200 lots, an increase of 3,937 lots from the previous trading day. The coke fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the supply and demand were stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal has shrunk in the short - term, coke enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks. After the festival, coal mine production has resumed, so the cost support for coke is limited. The coke futures lack unilateral momentum and are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the main coking coal contract remained weak, with increased positions and falling prices, indicating a bearish short - term market sentiment. The coal mines that stopped production for the Spring Festival will gradually resume production, and the import volume of Mongolian coal remains high. Meanwhile, the terminal demand for real estate and infrastructure is continuously low. The current fundamentals of coking coal are still not optimistic, dragging down the coal price to operate at a low level. The upcoming National Two Sessions may bring certain macro - expectation support. Coking coal futures may maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the context of long - short game. If there is no substantial policy support in the near future, coking coal prices will still face certain pressure [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **Trump's Global Tariff Disturbance**: Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House is trying to raise the tariff rate to 15%, but the schedule is undetermined. The 10% temporary import tariff on goods imported into the US took effect at 00:01 on February 24, Eastern Standard Time [9]. - **Stable Coking Coal Price in Linfen Anze Market**: On February 24, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,570 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,520 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,470 yuan/ton | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,230 yuan/ton | +2.50% | - 0.81% | +4.24% | +6.03% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.41% | +0.62% | +8.72% | +11.72% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,700 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | +11.11% | +14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Coke | | 1,634.5 yuan/ton | - 2.30% | 1,682 yuan/ton | 1,607 yuan/ton | 19,187 | +4,906 | 39,187 lots | +3,937 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,101.5 yuan/ton | - 1.65% | 1,135 yuan/ton | 1,081.5 yuan/ton | 592,026 | +130,427 | 468,538 lots | +56,059 lots | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [19][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization rate) [27][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, with coke expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and coking coal facing pressure without substantial policy support [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, the spot market shows that the latest quoted price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port's flat - closing price index is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68%. Recently, there is no significant change in the coke fundamentals, with both supply and demand slightly increasing at a low level. The futures lack unilateral momentum, and it is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The subsequent uncertainties mainly come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32] - For coking coal, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,230.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50%. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are on holiday, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises have replenished their coal stocks to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the festival. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal provide limited support, and the medium - and long - term expectation of loose supply and demand remains an important factor guiding coal price trends. Combining with the recent low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices, in the absence of medium - and long - term drivers, it is expected that coking coal prices will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The bullish risks mainly include three aspects: the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; the approaching of the important policy node of the National Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; and the possible introduction of new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On February 13, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in January 2026, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally narrowed, while the year - on - year prices decreased. In January, the month - on - month sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3%, the same as the previous month. Among them, the price in Shanghai remained flat, while those in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [9] - On February 13, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A9, V28 - 37, S1.0, G75, Mt8) was 93.7 US dollars/ton, and all 64,000 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 96.7 US dollars/ton (all prices are tax - free). The supply location is the customs supervision area at Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being May 14, 2026 [10] 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Closing) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Ex - Warehouse) | 1,470 | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Mongolian Coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,230 | 2.50% | - 0.81% | 4.24% | 6.03% | | Australian - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,620 | - 2.41% | 0.62% | 8.72% | 11.72% | | Shanxi - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,700 | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | 11.11% | 14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,682.0 | 105.0 | 1,682.0 | 1,651.5 | 14,281 | 4,287 | 35,250 | - 2,273 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,121.0 | - 31.0 | 1,128.5 | 1,110.0 | 461,599 | - 67,231 | 412,479 | - 54,413 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills over the years [19][21][22] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production situation, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][28][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is expected to be range - bound this week. The inland market is entering the pre - holiday rest period, with demand shrinking and supply remaining sufficient. The port market is also expected to be range - bound at the bottom before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure [5]. - The MA2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - The domestic methanol market is expected to be range - bound this week. The inland market is in the pre - holiday rest cycle. Demand from traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde has decreased, and supply is sufficient with no obvious pressure. The port market is expected to be range - bound at the bottom before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The MA2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 2210 - 2270 [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some plants are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and there are plans to put into production a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month. Also, CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the traditional off - season, MTBE production has declined significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and inventories in some plants in the production area have accumulated due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 682 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 263 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2265 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 324 US dollars/ton. The prices in different domestic regions have different changes, such as Jiangsu at 2210 yuan/ton, Shandong at 2310 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2241 yuan/ton, the number of registered warrants is 7082, and the number of effective forecasts is 950 [8]. - **Spread structure**: The basis is - 31 yuan/ton, the import spread is 24 yuan/ton, and there are spreads between different regions and international prices [8]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, showing a decline compared with the previous period. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also decreased [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 961,400 tons, with a slight decrease of 32,400 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 35,500 tons to 463,900 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance or planned maintenance, including those in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different production capacities and maintenance time ranges [58]. - **Overseas plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operating conditions, such as some in the process of restarting, some operating normally, and some under maintenance [59]. - **Olefin plants**: Olefin plants in different regions also have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2605 expected to trade between 2,210 - 2,280 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market is likely to experience range - bound fluctuations, with the inland market entering a pre - holiday rest period and the port market facing an uncertain geopolitical situation and unchanged fundamental weakness [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to range - bound fluctuate this week. The inland market is in a pre - holiday rest period, with reduced terminal demand and sufficient supply. The port market is expected to bottom - range fluctuate before the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce risk exposure. The report also suggests observing whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military operation against Iran [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns Long Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May. - Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Short Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. - There is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have declined significantly. - Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling. - Some plants in the production area have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained unchanged at 682 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in various regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78% to 2,207 yuan/ton, while the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12% to 1,805 yuan/ton. - Futures market: The closing price of the main contract increased by 19 yuan/ton to 2,244 yuan/ton. - Spread structure: The basis of Jiangsu methanol was - 37 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The import spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton [8]. Inventory Data - As of February 5, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 961,400 tons, a decrease of 32,400 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas decreased by 35,500 tons to 463,900 tons [4]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average operating rate across the country decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status Domestic Plants - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, and some are still undetermined [57]. Overseas Plants - Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are under maintenance. For example, some plants in Iran are in the process of restarting, and QAFAC in Qatar is under maintenance from the end of February to March 16 [58]. Olefin Plants - Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have normal operations. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants are under maintenance from March 15 for about 45 days, while some plants in Northwest and other regions are operating normally [59].