Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodity sector will return to fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand". In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the speed of supply recovery will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price is not given, and the basis is 100, which is bullish. For hot - rolled coils, the spot price is 3260 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 15, which is neutral [1][2] Profit and Cost - No information provided Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.5455 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, which is bearish. Hot - rolled coils: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8231 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, and the social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, with prominent inventory pressure, which is bearish [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - No information provided Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The recovery strength of downstream consumption of hot - rolled coils is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory [2] Macro - No information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the loose fundamentals are exerting pressure. However, there is short - term support from geopolitical factors and Two Sessions policies. It is expected that the futures prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate widely [2]. - For coking coal, on the supply side, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, and the operation of coal washing plants continues to increase. On the demand side, the operation of downstream coking enterprises has declined slightly, the coking coal inventory continues to decline, and the coke inventory continues to accumulate, with the profit per ton of coke turning positive [2]. - For coke, on the supply side, the operating load of coking enterprises has been reduced, and the in - plant inventory has continued to accumulate, with the profit per ton of coke turning positive. On the demand side, affected by production restrictions, the operation of steel mills and the molten iron output have declined [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the JM main contract is 1144.50 yuan/ton, up 23.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract is 1718.00 yuan/ton, up 37.50 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The JM futures contract holding volume is 593327.00 lots, down 15322.00 lots; the J futures contract holding volume is 41180.00 lots, down 438.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts is - 82084.00 lots, down 13916.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts is - 3587.00 lots, up 1156.00 lots [2]. - **Spreads**: The JM 9 - 5 month contract spread is 103.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the J 9 - 5 month contract spread is 75.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The coking coal warehouse receipts are 600.00 pieces, up 300.00 pieces; the coke warehouse receipts are 1310.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coking Coal**: The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal is 1043.00 yuan/ton, down 17.00 yuan; the price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) is 167.50 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1640.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi is 1387.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Coke**: The price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke is 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port is 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The JM main contract basis is 160.50 yuan/ton, down 23.00 yuan; the J main contract basis is - 53.00 yuan/ton, down 37.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 19.90 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants is 288.50 million tons, down 10.40 million tons. The monthly raw coal output is 43703.50 million tons, up 1024.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of coal and lignite is 3094.27 million tons, down 2765.73 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 182.90 million tons, up 31.30 million tons [2]. - **Inventory in Ports and Enterprises**: The weekly inventory of imported coking coal in 16 ports is 485.74 million tons, down 8.70 million tons; the weekly total inventory of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 796.15 million tons, down 33.31 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 18 ports is 270.71 million tons, up 9.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 63.20 million tons, up 1.01 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills across the country is 775.64 million tons, down 16.82 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 671.26 million tons, down 3.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Availability Days and Import/Export**: The weekly available days of coking coal in all - sample independent coking enterprises is 12.41 days, down 0.24 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills is 12.53 days, up 0.12 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal is 1376.98 million tons, up 303.87 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke is 100.00 million tons, up 28.00 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Production Capacity Utilization**: The monthly total supply of coking coal is 5478.50 million tons, up 238.97 million tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 72.29%, down 0.54%; the weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is 17.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; the monthly coke output is 4274.30 million tons, up 104.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country is 77.71%, down 2.51%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 85.32%, down 2.13%; the monthly crude steel output is 6817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the production capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plant samples this week is 31.0%, a 4.4% increase from the previous week; the daily output of clean coal is 23.1 million tons, a 3.2 - million - ton increase from the previous week; the clean coal inventory is 313.6 million tons, a 25.1 - million - ton increase from the previous week [2]. - Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on the 10th local time that Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran and will coordinate with the United States at an appropriate time to decide when to end the military operation against Iran. He did not give a specific timetable for the current military operation and emphasized that Israel will continue the military operation until it and its partners think it is "suitable to stop" [2]. - U.S. President Trump said on the 10th local time that it is possible to negotiate with Iran under certain conditions. Three informed sources revealed that the Trump administration has asked Israel to stop further air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, especially oil infrastructure. This is said to be the first obvious restraint on Israel's military operation by the United States since the joint U.S. - Israeli military operation against Iran began [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As the policy expectations during the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand." In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and the basis are 116, indicating a bullish situation. For hot - rolled coil, the spot price is 3250 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 6, showing a neutral situation [1][2] Profit and Cost - Not provided in the given content Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The supply is continuously recovering, and both the steel mill and social inventories are accumulating. The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, presenting a bearish situation. Hot - rolled coil: The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, also showing a bearish situation [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - Not provided in the given content Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - For hot - rolled coil, the downstream consumption volume recovery is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory, presenting a bearish situation [2] Macro - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "reality of high inventory" and the "expectation of peak - season demand". In the short term, whether the intensity of demand recovery can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot and Basis - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar and the basis is 101, which is bullish [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3260 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10, which is neutral [2] 3.2 Profit and Cost No information provided. 3.3 Capacity and Inventory - **Rebar**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory pressure is particularly prominent, which is bearish [2] 3.4 Rebar Demand and Downstream No information provided. 3.5 Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The downstream consumption volume of hot - rolled coil has increased, but the strength is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory [2] 3.6 Macro No information provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market opened higher and hit the daily limit, but the limit was lifted in the afternoon. The fundamentals of coking coal are still weak, with downstream resumption of work and production falling short of the upstream mining end. The follow - up trend depends on the duration of the Israel - Iran conflict, and during the conflict, sentiment dominates the market [1] - The geopolitical situation over the weekend continued to heat up, leading to a significant rise in the energy and chemical sector, and the sentiment was transmitted to the coal market. Coupled with the Two Sessions, the market is optimistic about the subsequent policy fermentation and expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with the operating load increased by 20% this period. After the holiday, with the resumption of mines, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce inventory, with steel mills reducing inventory by 168,200 tons and independent coking enterprises by about 494,100 tons. The steel mill operating load declined, and the post - holiday resumption was less than expected, with the current operating rate at 77.71%. Steel mills are mainly digesting their own inventory, with low overall demand for the upstream. One round of price cuts has been implemented, and a second round is expected [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1,168 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From February 27 to March 5, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4] Demand Data - From March 1 to March 5, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the mismatch between the "high - inventory reality" and the "peak - season demand expectation". In the short term, whether the demand recovery intensity can match the supply recovery speed will be the key variable, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot and Basis - For rebar, the spot price and basis information are provided, with a basis of 102, indicating a bullish signal. For hot - rolled coil, the spot price is 3230 yuan/ton and the basis is 0, showing a neutral signal [1][2] Profit and Cost - For rebar, the supply is continuously recovering, the inventory of steel mills and society is accumulating, the spot price is under pressure, and the disk profit is further declining, showing a bearish signal [1] Capacity and Inventory - Rebar: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 6.3775 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, showing a bearish signal. Hot - rolled coil: The social inventory has climbed to the highest level since April 2020, and the inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.8161 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, showing a bearish signal [1][2] Rebar Demand and Downstream - No specific content provided in the report Hot - Rolled Coil Demand and Downstream - The downstream consumption volume has increased, but the intensity is still insufficient to digest the high - level inventory, showing a bearish signal [2] Macro - As the policy expectations of the Two Sessions gradually materialize, the black - series commodities will return to the fundamental logic, and the market is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the coking coal market opened higher and rose during the day. Although the international Middle - East geopolitical conflict and strong expectations of domestic Two Sessions policies have jointly pushed up coking coal prices, the fundamental situation is weak. The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with a significant 20% increase in the operating load this period. After the holiday, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons, while independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce their inventories. The steel mill operating load has dropped, and the post - holiday resumption of production has fallen short of expectations. The first round of coke price cuts started on Monday and is expected to be implemented on Friday. Caution is advised regarding potential market pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and rose during the day. The domestic mines are in the process of resuming work, with a 20% increase in the operating load. After the holiday, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory decreased by about 494,100 tons, and steel mills' inventory decreased by 168,200 tons. The steel mill operating rate is 77.71%, and the post - holiday resumption of production is less than expected. The first round of coke price cuts started on Monday and is expected to be implemented on Friday. The international Middle - East geopolitical conflict and strong expectations of domestic Two Sessions policies have jointly pushed up coking coal prices, but caution is needed for potential market pullbacks [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal is 1,021 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1,123 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Data**: From February 27th to March 5th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4]. - **Demand Data**: From March 1st to March 5th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the coke industry is "Oscillating and slightly stronger" [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the coke fundamentals have few contradictions, the hot metal production has increased this week, and the steel mill maintenance intensity should be monitored during important meetings. With the opening of the Two Sessions, there are still policy expectations. In the short - term, coke is slightly stronger, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted, while paying attention to the support near the previous low and the pressure near the previous high [2] Group 3 Market Analysis - As of February 27, the coke inventory of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country increased by 75,400 tons to 1,078,200 tons, reaching an 8 - month high; port coke inventory decreased slightly by 21,600 tons to 2,617,000 tons; steel mill coke inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 6,751,100 tons; the comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.77% to 10,446,300 tons, ending a 9 - consecutive - increase trend [1] - During the Spring Festival, the coke price remained stable. This week, the profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country remained stable at - 8 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton of coke in each region basically remained unchanged [1] - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production of steel mills increased, and the supply rebounded. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.09% to 80.22% month - on - month and increased by 1.93% year - on - year; the profitability rate increased by 1.3% to 39.83% month - on - month and decreased by 10.39% year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output increased by 27,900 tons to 233,280 tons, reaching the highest level in nearly three months [1] - During the Spring Festival, coal mines were on holiday and production stopped, and the coking coal supply decreased. After the holiday consumption, the inventories of coke enterprises and steel mills decreased. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal decreased by 2,784,000 tons to 26,473,100 tons month - on - month, 3.94% lower year - on - year [1] News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened today, and the State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on March 5 to interpret the "Government Work Report" [2] - Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin will reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on March 6, 2026 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In March, the bond market may be slightly affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the overall main line still revolves around the policy expectations of the Two Sessions. The supply pressure of government bonds is generally controllable, and the "weak recovery" pattern of the fundamentals has not been reversed, providing bottom support for the bond market. As the 2026 Two Sessions are about to begin, the market's game on policy expectations intensifies, which may bring periodic fluctuations. It is expected that the bond futures in March will continue the range - bound pattern [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为108.555，环比上涨0.05%，成交量68845，较前一日增加8010；TF主力收盘价106.145，环比上涨0.08%，成交量60049，较前一日增加20957；TS主力收盘价102.518，环比上涨0.05%，成交量35956，较前一日增加11331；TL主力收盘价112.770，环比下跌0.03%，成交量62998，较前一日减少11958 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2606 - 2603价差为0.24，环比下降0.01；T2606 - 2603价差为0.02，环比上升0.01；TF2606 - 2603价差为0.10，环比上升0.00；TS2606 - 2603价差为0.01，环比上升0.02；T06 - TL06价差为 - 4.21，环比上升0.06；TF06 - T06价差为 - 2.41，环比上升0.02；TS06 - T06价差为 - 6.04，环比下降0.01；TS06 - TF06价差为 - 3.63，环比下降0.03 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量308558，较前一日增加7191；T前20名多头持仓264713，较前一日增加5397；T前20名空头持仓285631，较前一日增加6393；T前20名净持仓20918，较前一日增加996；TF主力持仓量161209，较前一日增加5872；TF前20名多头持仓143574，较前一日增加3751；TF前20名空头持仓165893，较前一日增加6851；TF前20名净持仓 - 22319，较前一日增加3100；TS主力持仓量68744，较前一日增加1836；TS前20名多头持仓56516，较前一日增加747；TS前20名空头持仓64831，较前一日增加2267；TS前20名净持仓8315，较前一日增加1520；TL主力持仓量134669，较前一日增加703；TL前20名多头持仓129986，较前一日减少115；TL前20名空头持仓141195，较前一日增加516；TL前20名净持仓 - 11209，较前一日增加631 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 230004.IB(6y）净价108.3879，环比上涨0.0485；250025.IB(6y）净价99.0955，环比上涨0.0543；250014.IB(4y）净价100.3246，环比上涨0.0689；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比上涨0.0366；250024.IB(1.6y)净价100.0529，环比上涨0.0281；250025.IB(1.6y)净价102.6471，环比上涨0.0188；220008.IB(17y)净价119.8304，环比上涨0.1109；220024.IB(18y)净价116.156，环比上涨0.1620 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1年期国债收益率1.2850%，环比下降0.75bp；3年期国债收益率1.3600%，环比下降0.50bp；5年期国债收益率1.5350%，环比上升0.50bp；7年期国债收益率1.6550%，环比上升0.40bp；10年期国债收益率1.7960%，环比上升0.50bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.2837%，环比上升3.61bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.2660%，环比下降0.10bp；银质押7天利率1.4268%，环比下降1.56bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比下降3.30bp；银质押14天利率1.4300%，环比下降1.75bp；Shibor14天利率1.4540%，环比下降4.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1年期LPR利率3.00%，环比无变化；5年期LPR利率3.5%，环比无变化 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模0亿，到期规模4095亿，利率1.4%，期限7天，净回笼4095亿 [2] 3.9 Industry News - 国新办将于3月5日上午11时30分举行吹风会，解读《政府工作报告》并答记者问；十四届全国人大四次会议大会发言人表示中国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，中国是外商理想、安全、有为的投资目的地；央行公布2026年2月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放3000亿元，7天期逆回购净回笼1205亿元，公开市场国债买卖净投放500亿元 [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - 3月6日21:30关注美国2月失业率、美国2月非农就业人口变动；3月5日十四届全国人大四次会议在北京召开 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Report Core View - The direct impact of the Iran situation on China's steel exports is limited, but the indirect impact is significant, and the short - term monthly impact on exports is about 1.1624 million tons. The futures market shows little reaction. During the Two - Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%. Some mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and the iron - water output in Tangshan is expected to decline in early March and recover in mid - March. Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand declined. The downstream construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is steady. The global iron ore shipment volume from February 23rd to March 1st was 33.407 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 22.3 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 21.469 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3328 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons. The current market trading logic is that the expectations of the Two - Sessions policies, infrastructure, and the resumption of work in the real estate industry still exist. The resumption of work in steel mills is expected to increase molten iron production, which supports prices. However, the terminal demand such as real estate is still weak, the supply and demand of iron ore are relatively loose, and the port inventory is close to the high level of 180 million tons, which suppresses the upward space. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar and iron ore closed up, while hot - rolled coils closed down. At night, rebar closed flat, iron ore closed down, and hot - rolled coils closed up [1] Important Information - By 2027, the cumulative comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules will reach 250,000 tons according to the six - department plan including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. As of February 28th, 16 cities have introduced 21 policies to relax the property market, including Shanghai's "Seven Measures" which lower the purchase threshold for non - Shanghai household residents, expand the purchase eligibility for residents with residence permits, and moderately relax the purchase restrictions within the outer ring. From February 23rd to March 1st, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival, and the cumulative transaction area since the beginning of this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [1] Market Logic - The Iran situation has a limited direct impact on China's steel exports but a significant indirect impact. The short - term monthly impact on exports is about 1.1624 million tons, and the futures market shows little reaction. During the Two - Sessions, most steel mills in Tangshan plan to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%. Some mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, and the iron - water output in Tangshan is expected to decline in early March and recover in mid - March, with a relatively limited overall impact. Last week, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, inventory continued to rise, and apparent demand declined, which is in line with expectations. The downstream construction industry has tight funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is steady. The global iron ore shipment volume from February 23rd to March 1st was 33.407 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.907 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 226,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 22.3 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 911,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 21.469 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 55,000 tons. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3328 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons [1] Trading Strategy - The current market trading logic is that the expectations of the Two - Sessions policies, infrastructure, and the resumption of work in the real estate industry still exist. The resumption of work in steel mills is expected to increase molten iron production, which supports prices. However, the terminal demand such as real estate is still weak, the supply and demand of iron ore are relatively loose, and the port inventory is close to the high level of 180 million tons, which suppresses the upward space. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term. The support level for rebar is 3000, and the resistance level is 3100. The support level for hot - rolled coils is 3180, and the resistance level is 3300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the resistance level is 770. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to operate short - term or wait for the right opportunity and set stop - losses well. In terms of arbitrage, based on the night - session closing price, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is 147. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar and enter the market at a low price, with a recommended take - profit level of over 200 [1]