投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 美乌及俄乌趋于缓和，金价承压 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 宏观氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：当地时间 8 月 15 日，美国总统和俄罗斯总统于阿 ...

中国人民大学国际关系学院教授 刁大明：对于美方而言，特朗普政府持续关注俄乌冲突，希望尽快兑现"俄乌冲 突停火"这一去年竞选期间的关键竞选承诺。实现所谓停火，可以让特朗普政府将更多资源转而投入其他领域。同 时如果能实现一定美俄关系的所谓缓和，也有助于美国在地缘政治、在国际经济贸易等领域维护自身地位的诉 求。 对俄罗斯而言，相对于当前持续僵局的俄乌冲突战场，如果可以通过谈判等方式，实现自己的自身诉求，当然也 是其乐见的一种选择。不过对于会晤双方展现出的迫切，也并不意味着这种迫切能够转化成为解决问题的可能 性。与这种迫切同步的其实是俄乌冲突问题的复杂性，目前的会晤可能只是一个起点。 会晤未达成协议 凸显俄乌冲突的复杂性 当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇市埃尔门多夫-理查森联合军事基地 举行会晤。会晤持续超过两个半小时。会后双方举行联合新闻发布会。 此次，俄美元首会晤和联合新闻发布会整体释放了哪些信号？ 中国人民大学国际关系学院教授 刁大明：此次美俄元首会晤虽然没有达成任何协议，但还是释放了一些比较明确 的信号。一方面，此次会晤能够在短时间内实现，充分显示了双方希望沟通的迫切诉求 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump announced a meeting with President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, indicating a potential for cooperation amid complex geopolitical situations [1] - Fed Vice Chair Bowman emphasized that recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year, reducing inflation risks [1] - Analyst suggests that gold prices may continue to fluctuate but are at a high level, warning of a potential decline [1] - Geopolitical easing between the US and Russia is suppressing gold price increases, while rising expectations for Fed rate cuts provide some support [1] - Technical analysis shows gold price range has narrowed from $3120-$3500 to $3260-$3450 since June, with a potential drop to around $3345 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Following a meeting between US envoy and President Putin, there are misunderstandings regarding Russia's stance on the Ukraine ceasefire, with ongoing uncertainties in US-Russia negotiations [2] - Supply-side expectations indicate that production will significantly exceed demand in Q3 and Q4, putting downward pressure on oil prices [2] - OPEC+ has increased production by 548,000 barrels in August and plans to do the same in September [2] - Recent EIA reports show a slight decrease in US crude oil inventories, indicating strong overall market demand, which supports oil prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates oil prices are currently in a downtrend, with a focus on whether prices can drop to around $61.50 [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - Recent speeches from Fed officials have raised market expectations for future rate cuts, with a 90.7% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - Economic data shows a cooling labor market and overall economic weakness, suggesting the dollar may continue to consolidate at low levels [3] - Technical analysis indicates the dollar index is fluctuating between 97-100, with a potential for short-term strength [3] Group 4: Copper Market - After a significant drop in copper prices on July 31, the market has maintained a weak sideways trend, currently trading between $4.28 and $4.46 [4] - The strategy suggests shorting on rallies, with support levels to watch at $4.28-$4.30 [4]