没想到的是，中国还没放弃对俄贸易，俄罗斯普京政府却先对美"让步"，近日俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫表示，已准备好与美国讨论能 源合作，还提到了"萨哈林1号项目"。该项目在2005年启动，由美国埃克森美孚公司占股30%，俄罗斯石油公司占比20%，日本和印度 公司共占比50%。在俄乌冲突后，美企退出了该项目。近期普京签署法令，允许埃克森美孚公司重新获得股份，在外界看来，这是俄 罗斯的一种"让步"，此外美俄在峰会中还提到了能源和商务合作。 在石油资源领域，俄罗斯对美敞开大门有三层因素：一是战时经济，2025年俄罗斯的经济增长放缓，增长预期仅为1.5%，第二季度的 GDP增长率只有1.1%，远低于去年同期。受高利率的影响，俄罗斯央行财政压力巨大，而在西方国家的制裁下，俄能源出口受限，这 种经济领域的"内忧外患"，让普京不得不对美"让步"；二是美俄关系的缓和，美国的武器援助是乌克兰抵抗俄军的最大依仗，欧盟和 北约的对俄行动，同样受美方掣肘，缓和美俄关系，可以为俄罗斯提供难得的喘息之机；三是释放政治信号。美国与俄罗斯的能源合 打不赢中国，美方又想搞"集团作战"吗？面对28国联合重压，中方不退一步，没想到俄罗斯先妥协了，美方要" ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish view due to the easing of the US - Ukraine and Russia - Ukraine situations, which puts pressure on the gold price [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish view as the macro - environment warms up, the copper price stabilizes and rebounds, and the market risk preference may continue to rise, along with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: decline; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation and weakening [1] - **Core Logic**: On August 15 local time, the US and Russian presidents met in Alaska, with positive evaluations but no agreements. Ukraine's President Zelensky will meet with Trump on the 18th, and EU, NATO, and European leaders will also have a meeting at the White House on the 18th. The easing of US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine relations over the weekend puts pressure on the gold price [3] Copper - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: rise; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation and strengthening [1] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the copper price fluctuated upward. After the US - Russia presidential meeting on August 15, the relations between the two countries improved, and the market risk preference may continue to rise. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is increasing, and the industry is approaching the peak season, so the futures price is expected to strengthen [4]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin lasted over two and a half hours, indicating a strong desire for communication between the two nations [1] - The meeting did not result in any agreements, highlighting the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6] - Both parties emphasized the constructive nature of the meeting, suggesting it could help ease US-Russia relations, despite the lack of concrete outcomes [6][10] Group 2 - The US aims to fulfill its campaign promise of achieving a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would allow the government to redirect resources to other areas [4] - Russia seeks to address its own demands through negotiations, but the complexity of the conflict may hinder progress [4][8] - The potential for future communication on key issues was highlighted, indicating that the meeting may have opened a new process, but significant challenges remain [10]

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump announced a meeting with President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, indicating a potential for cooperation amid complex geopolitical situations [1] - Fed Vice Chair Bowman emphasized that recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year, reducing inflation risks [1] - Analyst suggests that gold prices may continue to fluctuate but are at a high level, warning of a potential decline [1] - Geopolitical easing between the US and Russia is suppressing gold price increases, while rising expectations for Fed rate cuts provide some support [1] - Technical analysis shows gold price range has narrowed from $3120-$3500 to $3260-$3450 since June, with a potential drop to around $3345 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Following a meeting between US envoy and President Putin, there are misunderstandings regarding Russia's stance on the Ukraine ceasefire, with ongoing uncertainties in US-Russia negotiations [2] - Supply-side expectations indicate that production will significantly exceed demand in Q3 and Q4, putting downward pressure on oil prices [2] - OPEC+ has increased production by 548,000 barrels in August and plans to do the same in September [2] - Recent EIA reports show a slight decrease in US crude oil inventories, indicating strong overall market demand, which supports oil prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates oil prices are currently in a downtrend, with a focus on whether prices can drop to around $61.50 [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - Recent speeches from Fed officials have raised market expectations for future rate cuts, with a 90.7% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - Economic data shows a cooling labor market and overall economic weakness, suggesting the dollar may continue to consolidate at low levels [3] - Technical analysis indicates the dollar index is fluctuating between 97-100, with a potential for short-term strength [3] Group 4: Copper Market - After a significant drop in copper prices on July 31, the market has maintained a weak sideways trend, currently trading between $4.28 and $4.46 [4] - The strategy suggests shorting on rallies, with support levels to watch at $4.28-$4.30 [4]