Group 1 - The U.S. is pressuring the EU to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, with potential increases up to 100%, which could lead to a united front of 28 countries against China [1][3] - China has not yielded to U.S. pressure, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasizing that excessive tariffs harm all parties involved and warning against unilateral trade restrictions [3][5] - Russia has unexpectedly made concessions to the U.S. regarding energy cooperation, indicating a willingness to discuss projects like Sakhalin-1, which could signal a shift in geopolitical dynamics [5][7] Group 2 - Russia's economic situation is dire, with a projected GDP growth of only 1.5% for 2025 and a second-quarter growth rate of just 1.1%, prompting the need for concessions to the U.S. [7][8] - The potential for U.S.-Russia energy cooperation could create internal divisions within the EU and NATO, which aligns with Russia's strategic interests [8][10] - The U.S. is currently an energy-exporting nation, with projected oil exports reaching 10 million barrels per day in 2024, suggesting that any cooperation with Russia may be more opportunistic than strategic [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish view due to the easing of the US - Ukraine and Russia - Ukraine situations, which puts pressure on the gold price [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish view as the macro - environment warms up, the copper price stabilizes and rebounds, and the market risk preference may continue to rise, along with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: decline; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation and weakening [1] - **Core Logic**: On August 15 local time, the US and Russian presidents met in Alaska, with positive evaluations but no agreements. Ukraine's President Zelensky will meet with Trump on the 18th, and EU, NATO, and European leaders will also have a meeting at the White House on the 18th. The easing of US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine relations over the weekend puts pressure on the gold price [3] Copper - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: rise; Mid - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation and strengthening [1] - **Core Logic**: Last week, the copper price fluctuated upward. After the US - Russia presidential meeting on August 15, the relations between the two countries improved, and the market risk preference may continue to rise. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is increasing, and the industry is approaching the peak season, so the futures price is expected to strengthen [4]

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin lasted over two and a half hours, indicating a strong desire for communication between the two nations [1] - The meeting did not result in any agreements, highlighting the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6] - Both parties emphasized the constructive nature of the meeting, suggesting it could help ease US-Russia relations, despite the lack of concrete outcomes [6][10] Group 2 - The US aims to fulfill its campaign promise of achieving a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would allow the government to redirect resources to other areas [4] - Russia seeks to address its own demands through negotiations, but the complexity of the conflict may hinder progress [4][8] - The potential for future communication on key issues was highlighted, indicating that the meeting may have opened a new process, but significant challenges remain [10]

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump announced a meeting with President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, indicating a potential for cooperation amid complex geopolitical situations [1] - Fed Vice Chair Bowman emphasized that recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year, reducing inflation risks [1] - Analyst suggests that gold prices may continue to fluctuate but are at a high level, warning of a potential decline [1] - Geopolitical easing between the US and Russia is suppressing gold price increases, while rising expectations for Fed rate cuts provide some support [1] - Technical analysis shows gold price range has narrowed from $3120-$3500 to $3260-$3450 since June, with a potential drop to around $3345 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Following a meeting between US envoy and President Putin, there are misunderstandings regarding Russia's stance on the Ukraine ceasefire, with ongoing uncertainties in US-Russia negotiations [2] - Supply-side expectations indicate that production will significantly exceed demand in Q3 and Q4, putting downward pressure on oil prices [2] - OPEC+ has increased production by 548,000 barrels in August and plans to do the same in September [2] - Recent EIA reports show a slight decrease in US crude oil inventories, indicating strong overall market demand, which supports oil prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates oil prices are currently in a downtrend, with a focus on whether prices can drop to around $61.50 [2] Group 3: US Dollar Index - Recent speeches from Fed officials have raised market expectations for future rate cuts, with a 90.7% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - Economic data shows a cooling labor market and overall economic weakness, suggesting the dollar may continue to consolidate at low levels [3] - Technical analysis indicates the dollar index is fluctuating between 97-100, with a potential for short-term strength [3] Group 4: Copper Market - After a significant drop in copper prices on July 31, the market has maintained a weak sideways trend, currently trading between $4.28 and $4.46 [4] - The strategy suggests shorting on rallies, with support levels to watch at $4.28-$4.30 [4]