Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices on October 21 is attributed to profit-taking, easing global trade tensions, and a stronger US dollar, which has made precious metals more expensive for buyers [1][3]. Price Movements - On October 21, spot gold experienced a drop of over 5%, falling below $4,130 per ounce, marking the largest daily decline since August 2020. Spot silver saw an even larger decline, dropping over 7% and falling below $49 per ounce [1][3]. - Prior to this drop, gold had surged nearly 3% to surpass $4,300 per ounce on October 16, and silver had increased over 2% to exceed $54 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3]. Market Influences - Analysts indicate that profit-taking and a reduction in safe-haven demand due to easing trade tensions are primary factors behind the recent price declines. Additionally, news regarding the potential end of the US government shutdown has further diminished market risk aversion [3][5]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also introduced volatility in the gold market, with European leaders expressing strong support for a ceasefire and increased pressure on Russia [1]. Future Outlook - Analysts from WisdomTree and UBS suggest that while gold prices may continue to rise, the current pace of increase is aggressive, leading to potential pullbacks whenever new highs are reached [5]. - HSBC forecasts that the momentum for gold prices could persist until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases and ongoing fiscal concerns in the US, with a target price of $5,000 per ounce [6]. - Long-term bullish sentiment on gold remains intact, with factors such as US fiscal deficits and the depreciation of the dollar continuing to support gold as a hedge against currency weakness [6][7].

2025 年 10 月 21 日 总量研究 黄金"狂欢"未歇，铜价能否共舞？ ——《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇 要点 核心观点： 近期在中美贸易风波再起、鲍威尔透露将在未来结束缩表、美国地区银行爆雷等 多重事件发酵下，国内外资金加速流入黄金市场。考虑到短期内金价的利多因素 基本交易充分，预计金价上涨动能或有所放缓，但长期看，本轮牛市行情远未结 束。在金价加速上涨后，铜价有望迎来补涨行情。一则，铜金比处在历史极低水 平，存在向上修复空间；二则，在全球能源转型、AI 革命的双轮驱动下，铜的 战略性地位日益凸显，供给约束叠加需求扩张的背景下，铜正进入一轮结构性紧 缺周期，其价格中枢或长期抬升。 上周五（2025 年 10 月 17 日）市场情绪急剧释放后，金价自高位回调。近期在 中美贸易风波再起、鲍威尔透露将在未来结束缩表、美国地区银行爆雷等多重事 件发酵下，国内外资金加速流入黄金市场。考虑到年内剩余两次降息空间已完全 计价，叠加中美贸易摩擦边际降温，短期内金价的利多因素基本交易充分，我们 预计短期金价的上涨动能或有所放缓。但若未来有黑天鹅事件发生，不排除黄金 价格继续冲高的可能。 长期来看，我们看多黄金的大 ...