所以美国为什么常年如此？答曰这是与美元的霸主地位有关，想要维持美元的地位，必须如此，而这也 带来了一系列的挑战和问题。 首先，贸易顺差和逆差究竟是什么？它是一个国家进口和出口的差值，当进口额大于出口额时，即是逆 差，反之则是顺差。由此可见，当一个国家呈现贸易顺差时，表示它在国际贸易中正在挣钱，而当呈现 逆差时则表示他正在花钱给别的国家。 如果是其他国家，长期处在逆差下，当然是个大问题，这意味着这个国家的钱在不断流失。但是美国不 一样。美国是全世界最主要的国际货币美元的发行国，这就意味着美国的贸易顺差和逆差需要站在不同 的角度来考虑。 美国一直保持着巨大的逆差，而且已经几十年都如此。画一张图如下： 归根结底其实是因为现在的美国已经走出了当年的金本位制时代，美元已经不再与黄金挂钩，而赋予了 美国政府可以无限制的印钱的可能。实际上，美国出现大量贸易逆差的时代，恰恰就是1971年布雷顿森 林体系解体，美国与黄金脱钩之后。这绝对不是巧合，而是在金本位制下可以避免这样的情况，这就是 所谓的休谟平衡或者休谟机制。 在金本位之中，黄金既是各国的本国货币，又是国际支付工具。贸易顺差国会因为自己的顺差而从别国 赚回黄金，从而让该 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced a long-term bull market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, leading to a significant increase in market capitalization relative to GDP, from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% currently [1][3][4]. Macro Policy: "Replacing Old with New" - The Reagan administration's "Replacing Old with New" industrial policy enhanced U.S. economic efficiency by promoting the exit of outdated industries and fostering high-tech sectors [16][19]. - Specific measures included expanding international trade to phase out basic industries, reducing subsidies, and stimulating high-tech manufacturing through tax reforms and military industrial development [16][19]. Micro Enterprises: Focus on Profit Quality and Shareholder Returns - Companies began to prioritize operational efficiency and shareholder returns, with a shift in market focus from growth narratives to profitability metrics, particularly cash flow [21][26]. - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 facilitated stock buybacks, allowing companies to manage their stock prices more effectively [26][27]. Asset Side: Incremental Capital Flow - Long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, supported by the rise of institutional investors and changes in retirement savings plans, significantly increasing household participation in equity markets [32][33]. - The share of long-term investors, such as pensions and mutual funds, rose to 40% in the 1980s, enhancing market stability and price discovery [33][37]. Globalization: Continuous Inflow of Overseas Capital - The formation of a "dollar cycle" and the influx of overseas capital have been crucial for the long-term bull market, with foreign investors significantly increasing their holdings in U.S. stocks since the 1980s [40][42]. - From 1980 to mid-2025, foreign investors accumulated $2.36 trillion in U.S. stocks, compared to $633.3 billion from domestic investors, highlighting the importance of foreign capital in supporting the bull market [40][42]. Federal Reserve Put: Guardian of the Bull Market - The strengthening of the Federal Reserve's "put" option has provided market stability, with the Fed intervening during crises to support liquidity and market confidence [44]. - This trend began in the late 1980s and has continued through various market downturns, establishing a market expectation that the Fed will act to stabilize the stock market during significant declines [44].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the long-term bull market in the U.S. stock market since the 1980s is driven by structural economic transformation, technological advancements, and significant capital inflows, leading to a market capitalization to GDP ratio that has increased from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% today [1][3][6] - The U.S. stock market's growth rate has consistently outpaced economic growth, reflecting the market's ability to price in future growth potential [3][6] - The article highlights two historical periods of long bull markets in the U.S., specifically from 1860-1900 and from the 1980s to the present, both characterized by significant structural changes and technological progress [3][6] Group 2 - On the asset side, macroeconomic policies have focused on nurturing high-quality companies, with the Reagan administration's "creative destruction" policy facilitating the exit of outdated industries and promoting high-tech sectors [18][19] - Companies have increasingly prioritized operational efficiency and shareholder returns, with a notable shift towards high cash flow firms post-1980s, which began to outperform lower cash flow firms [23][28] - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 allowed companies to repurchase shares without the fear of being accused of stock price manipulation, leading to a significant increase in stock buybacks [28][29] Group 3 - Domestic long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, driven by the introduction of retirement savings plans and the increasing participation of institutional investors [34][38] - The rise of long-term investors such as pension funds and mutual funds has contributed to market stability and improved price discovery [36][38] - The article notes that from 1980 to mid-2025, foreign investors have accumulated $2.36 trillion in U.S. stocks, significantly outpacing domestic investors' contributions [42][43] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's "put option" policy has provided a safety net for the stock market, with the Fed intervening during market downturns to stabilize confidence and liquidity [48][49] - The article discusses how the Fed's focus on stock market performance has increased since the 1980s, with a notable rise in mentions of the stock market in FOMC minutes [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term bull market in the U.S. stock market since the 1980s, driven by economic structural transformation and the information technology revolution, leading to a significant increase in market capitalization relative to GDP, which has risen from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% currently [2][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The "腾笼换鸟" (tenglong huan niao) policy initiated by the Reagan administration aimed to enhance economic efficiency by phasing out outdated industries and promoting high-tech sectors, which helped reverse the long-term decline in U.S. economic efficiency [16][17]. - The policy included measures such as reducing subsidies, promoting international trade, and stimulating high-tech manufacturing, contributing to productivity growth [16][17]. Group 2: Microeconomic Enterprises - U.S. companies have shifted focus towards profitability quality and shareholder returns, with an increasing emphasis on cash flow and dividends since the 1980s [17][23]. - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 facilitated stock buybacks, allowing companies to manage their stock prices more effectively, which became a common practice post-1980s [23][24]. Group 3: Asset Side - Incremental Capital Flow - Long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, supported by the rise of institutional investors and changes in retirement savings plans, significantly increasing household participation in equity markets [28][31]. - The share of long-term investors, such as pension funds and mutual funds, in the U.S. stock market rose to nearly 40% in the 1980s, enhancing market stability and price discovery [31][33]. Group 4: Globalization and Foreign Capital - The globalization process initiated in the 1980s led to significant inflows of foreign capital into the U.S. stock market, with overseas investors accumulating $2.36 trillion in U.S. equities from 1980 to mid-2025 [36][38]. - The "美元大循环" (dollar circulation) phenomenon facilitated the return of overseas dollars to the U.S., further supporting the bull market [36][38]. Group 5: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's "put option" policy has provided a safety net for the stock market, with interventions during major downturns since the late 1980s, reinforcing market confidence [40][41]. - The Fed's increasing focus on stock market performance has been evident, with more frequent mentions of the stock market in FOMC minutes since the 1980s [40][41].