. 1 2 1 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 任思雨 分析师 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090006 rensy@ctsec.com 相关报告 政策点评 / 2026.01.31 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! 沃什么穷不是 浪尔完 1. 《存款搬家，新路径 》 2026-01-30 2.《工业利润超季节性反弹》 2026-01- 28 3. 《美联储或许并不重要》 2026-01- 27 是不是沃什当选、沃什采取怎样的货币政策其实都不重要,重要的是，谁才 � 是当今的保罗 · 沃尔克?要解决美国的问题,只能靠颠覆性的技术进步,大幅 提高生产力,用更快的增长覆盖高额的债务。这也是美国在 80年代走出大滞 胎的根本原因。 ❖ 并不是沃尔克选择了时代，而是时代选择了沃尔克。1970年代开始的信息技 术革命的有效突破，才给沃尔克大幅加息整治通胀以及里根整顿财政纪律、 供给侧改革提供了最必要的条件和底气。没有信息技术革命的背景，沃尔克 和里根的政策可能也难以有效推行。所以，美联储其实并不重要，在 AI 技术 ...

Core Viewpoint - The governance of the online ecosystem is a crucial task for building a strong network nation, impacting national development, security, and the interests of the people [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Challenges - Significant achievements have been made in information infrastructure and digital inclusive services, with internet penetration continuously increasing and digital dividends benefiting millions [2]. - The rapid development of information technology has introduced new challenges for online ecosystem governance, such as "information cocoons" and "emotional amplification," affecting public opinion and individual perspectives [2]. Group 2: Governance System Improvement - A comprehensive governance system is necessary, involving multiple stakeholders and processes, requiring top-level design and effective legal frameworks to enhance internet governance efficiency [3]. - Continuous actions are needed to address prominent issues like online rumors, false advertising, and online violence through targeted campaigns [3]. Group 3: Technological Empowerment - The integration of emerging technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain is essential for enhancing information security and risk management capabilities [4]. - Establishing a transparent and accountable algorithm governance system is crucial, alongside developing user-friendly tools for different demographics [4]. Group 4: Guidance and Cultivation - Promoting healthy online culture and core socialist values is vital for enhancing the online ecosystem, encouraging rational internet use and improving public information literacy [5]. - Educational initiatives should be implemented to enhance media literacy among various age groups, focusing on internet safety, privacy awareness, and information discernment skills [5].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the long-term bull market in the U.S. stock market since the 1980s is driven by structural economic transformation, technological advancements, and significant capital inflows, leading to a market capitalization to GDP ratio that has increased from 60% in the 1980s to over 200% today [1][3][6] - The U.S. stock market's growth rate has consistently outpaced economic growth, reflecting the market's ability to price in future growth potential [3][6] - The article highlights two historical periods of long bull markets in the U.S., specifically from 1860-1900 and from the 1980s to the present, both characterized by significant structural changes and technological progress [3][6] Group 2 - On the asset side, macroeconomic policies have focused on nurturing high-quality companies, with the Reagan administration's "creative destruction" policy facilitating the exit of outdated industries and promoting high-tech sectors [18][19] - Companies have increasingly prioritized operational efficiency and shareholder returns, with a notable shift towards high cash flow firms post-1980s, which began to outperform lower cash flow firms [23][28] - The introduction of SEC Rule 10b-18 in 1982 allowed companies to repurchase shares without the fear of being accused of stock price manipulation, leading to a significant increase in stock buybacks [28][29] Group 3 - Domestic long-term capital has steadily flowed into the U.S. stock market, driven by the introduction of retirement savings plans and the increasing participation of institutional investors [34][38] - The rise of long-term investors such as pension funds and mutual funds has contributed to market stability and improved price discovery [36][38] - The article notes that from 1980 to mid-2025, foreign investors have accumulated $2.36 trillion in U.S. stocks, significantly outpacing domestic investors' contributions [42][43] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's "put option" policy has provided a safety net for the stock market, with the Fed intervening during market downturns to stabilize confidence and liquidity [48][49] - The article discusses how the Fed's focus on stock market performance has increased since the 1980s, with a notable rise in mentions of the stock market in FOMC minutes [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics driven by liquidity and the potential limitations of this bull market, drawing parallels with Japan's past market behavior during the 1990s [2][14][58]. Market Performance - Since the policy shift on "September 24," the domestic market has rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 47% and 50% from their lows, respectively [2]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a dynamic PE of 11.6, which is above the historical average, indicating that certain high-growth sectors may no longer be considered cheap [2][6]. Valuation Comparisons - While the Hang Seng Index appears cheaper than the S&P 500's dynamic valuation of 22.3, this comparison lacks context regarding profitability and liquidity conditions [6][8]. - The article highlights that the median PE of leading Chinese tech companies is 17.8, which is higher than their median net profit margin of 9.6%, suggesting potential overvaluation in some sectors [6][8]. Economic Indicators - Post-August, domestic demand indicators have weakened, and recent financial credit data supports the view that the credit cycle may be turning downward in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The article notes that risk premiums in traditional sectors like finance and real estate have dropped below historical averages, while new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are stabilizing around historical means [9][11]. Historical Context: Japan's Bull Markets - The article analyzes Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, which were characterized by significant government stimulus and external economic trends, yet ultimately faced limitations due to structural issues and market sentiment [14][58]. - Each of Japan's bull markets was initiated by substantial fiscal stimulus, with the first round starting in 1992, leading to a 54% rebound over 12.8 months [19][33]. Investor Behavior - During Japan's first bull market, individual investors' participation surged, while foreign investors' share declined, indicating a shift in market sentiment [28][30]. - The second bull market saw a similar pattern, with individual investor enthusiasm waning as foreign investor participation increased [40][42]. Conclusion and Implications - The article concludes that while liquidity can drive market rallies, without substantial improvements in the underlying economy, these rallies may face ceilings [58]. - It suggests that to break through current market limitations, structural policy changes focusing on technology and income expectations are necessary, rather than relying solely on traditional fiscal measures [67].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system to promote the healthy and orderly development of artificial intelligence (AI) towards beneficial, safe, and equitable directions, as outlined in the recent "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan [1][3]. Group 1: Transition from "Internet+" to "Artificial Intelligence+" - The transition from "Internet+" to "Artificial Intelligence+" represents a deepening of the information technology revolution, with both being general-purpose technologies that exhibit rapid iteration and strong transformative capabilities for traditional industries [2]. - "Artificial Intelligence+" builds upon "Internet+" by adding cognitive capabilities, enabling a shift from mere information connection to knowledge application and creation, thus driving comprehensive and profound changes in economic and social development [2]. Group 2: Implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" Action - The implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action is crucial for accelerating the development of new productive forces and is a necessary step towards transitioning the digital economy into an intelligent economy and society [3]. - The action plan sets overall goals for 2035, with specific targets for 2027 and 2030 regarding the penetration rates of new intelligent terminals and the development level of the intelligent economy [3]. Group 3: Systematic Layout and Sector-Specific Strategies - "Artificial Intelligence+" is a systemic project that requires a comprehensive approach, addressing economic, social, and governance aspects while avoiding issues like the "intelligent divide" and algorithmic discrimination [4]. - The action plan emphasizes tailored strategies for different industries, advocating for specific measures in high-risk sectors like smart connected vehicles and finance, while promoting technological advancements in sectors with higher technical challenges such as healthcare [5]. Group 4: Global Cooperation and Safety Measures - The action plan highlights the need for global cooperation in AI development, aiming to create an inclusive and trustworthy ecosystem for AI capabilities, while establishing a global governance framework for AI [5]. - It addresses the safety risks associated with AI, proposing enhancements in security capabilities, including monitoring, risk warning, and emergency response systems [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of DeepSeek and Trump's tariffs on global asset volatility, investor sentiment, and the macroeconomic narrative between China and the U.S. It highlights the interconnection between AI trends and tariff policies, emphasizing their influence on the financial and current accounts of both economies [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic and Asset Trends - The U.S. has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, primarily due to low savings rates and the dollar's privileged status [2][3]. - Since the pandemic, fiscal expansion has led to an increase in the current account deficit, while the AI trend has attracted capital inflows, supporting the dollar and the economy [2][4]. - The financial account's inflow is crucial for the U.S. economy, with AI being a key driver of this trend, especially since 2023 [2][20]. Group 2: China’s Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO, but its financial account has seen capital outflows, indicating a reliance on external demand [13][18]. - The current economic model in China, which relies on current account surpluses for growth, faces challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and weakening external demand [23][24]. - The need for domestic demand stimulation and structural reforms is emphasized to counterbalance the external challenges and attract capital inflows [23][24]. Group 3: Interconnection of U.S. and China Accounts - The article outlines how the financial account (AI) and current account (tariffs) are interconnected, with the financial account's performance being critical for future economic trends in both countries [20][22]. - For the U.S., the sustainability of capital inflows is contingent on the strength of the AI sector, while for China, the focus should be on stimulating domestic demand to improve the financial account [20][22]. - The potential for a shift in the global investment landscape is highlighted, with the AI narrative playing a pivotal role in determining the flow of capital between the two economies [20][22].