来源：中金点睛 Abstract 摘要 1980年代以来，美股进入数十年的趋势长牛。经济结构转型与信息技术革命为企业带来了体量庞大且中短期难以证伪的扩张机会，而资金持续稳定的流入 将未来的经济潜力兑现为当下的股市估值，使得美股的增长幅度（即股市成长性）远高于经济增速（即经济成长性），美股市值占GDP的比例从八十年代 的60%涨至当下的超过200%。 当然，成长性想要持久，仍需各方支持性因素的呵护。 资产来看，政策和企业层面加速培育优质标的。宏观政策层面，1980年里根政府顺应全球化趋势，推动美国产业的"腾笼换鸟"，着力推动落后产能出清和 高新技术行业发展，扭转了美国经济效率长期下滑的趋势。企业层面，战后经济快速扩张阶段结束后，美国企业开始更加注重运营，高现金流企业在股市 中逐渐脱颖而出。金融政策改革也使得企业更加关注市值管理，特别是通过回购来提升股价。 资金来看，增量资金稳步流入股市。国内，受益于养老金体系的改革和金融技术进步，长线资金开始稳定流入股市，养老金、保险金和共同基金等专业投 资者的崛起逐渐起到了市场压舱石的作用。海外，美国从1980年代开启了趋势性贸易逆差，海外美元资金增多并回流美国完成"美元大循 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics driven by liquidity and the potential limitations of this bull market, drawing parallels with Japan's past market behavior during the 1990s [2][14][58]. Market Performance - Since the policy shift on "September 24," the domestic market has rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 47% and 50% from their lows, respectively [2]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a dynamic PE of 11.6, which is above the historical average, indicating that certain high-growth sectors may no longer be considered cheap [2][6]. Valuation Comparisons - While the Hang Seng Index appears cheaper than the S&P 500's dynamic valuation of 22.3, this comparison lacks context regarding profitability and liquidity conditions [6][8]. - The article highlights that the median PE of leading Chinese tech companies is 17.8, which is higher than their median net profit margin of 9.6%, suggesting potential overvaluation in some sectors [6][8]. Economic Indicators - Post-August, domestic demand indicators have weakened, and recent financial credit data supports the view that the credit cycle may be turning downward in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The article notes that risk premiums in traditional sectors like finance and real estate have dropped below historical averages, while new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are stabilizing around historical means [9][11]. Historical Context: Japan's Bull Markets - The article analyzes Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, which were characterized by significant government stimulus and external economic trends, yet ultimately faced limitations due to structural issues and market sentiment [14][58]. - Each of Japan's bull markets was initiated by substantial fiscal stimulus, with the first round starting in 1992, leading to a 54% rebound over 12.8 months [19][33]. Investor Behavior - During Japan's first bull market, individual investors' participation surged, while foreign investors' share declined, indicating a shift in market sentiment [28][30]. - The second bull market saw a similar pattern, with individual investor enthusiasm waning as foreign investor participation increased [40][42]. Conclusion and Implications - The article concludes that while liquidity can drive market rallies, without substantial improvements in the underlying economy, these rallies may face ceilings [58]. - It suggests that to break through current market limitations, structural policy changes focusing on technology and income expectations are necessary, rather than relying solely on traditional fiscal measures [67].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system to promote the healthy and orderly development of artificial intelligence (AI) towards beneficial, safe, and equitable directions, as outlined in the recent "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan [1][3]. Group 1: Transition from "Internet+" to "Artificial Intelligence+" - The transition from "Internet+" to "Artificial Intelligence+" represents a deepening of the information technology revolution, with both being general-purpose technologies that exhibit rapid iteration and strong transformative capabilities for traditional industries [2]. - "Artificial Intelligence+" builds upon "Internet+" by adding cognitive capabilities, enabling a shift from mere information connection to knowledge application and creation, thus driving comprehensive and profound changes in economic and social development [2]. Group 2: Implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" Action - The implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action is crucial for accelerating the development of new productive forces and is a necessary step towards transitioning the digital economy into an intelligent economy and society [3]. - The action plan sets overall goals for 2035, with specific targets for 2027 and 2030 regarding the penetration rates of new intelligent terminals and the development level of the intelligent economy [3]. Group 3: Systematic Layout and Sector-Specific Strategies - "Artificial Intelligence+" is a systemic project that requires a comprehensive approach, addressing economic, social, and governance aspects while avoiding issues like the "intelligent divide" and algorithmic discrimination [4]. - The action plan emphasizes tailored strategies for different industries, advocating for specific measures in high-risk sectors like smart connected vehicles and finance, while promoting technological advancements in sectors with higher technical challenges such as healthcare [5]. Group 4: Global Cooperation and Safety Measures - The action plan highlights the need for global cooperation in AI development, aiming to create an inclusive and trustworthy ecosystem for AI capabilities, while establishing a global governance framework for AI [5]. - It addresses the safety risks associated with AI, proposing enhancements in security capabilities, including monitoring, risk warning, and emergency response systems [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of DeepSeek and Trump's tariffs on global asset volatility, investor sentiment, and the macroeconomic narrative between China and the U.S. It highlights the interconnection between AI trends and tariff policies, emphasizing their influence on the financial and current accounts of both economies [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic and Asset Trends - The U.S. has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, primarily due to low savings rates and the dollar's privileged status [2][3]. - Since the pandemic, fiscal expansion has led to an increase in the current account deficit, while the AI trend has attracted capital inflows, supporting the dollar and the economy [2][4]. - The financial account's inflow is crucial for the U.S. economy, with AI being a key driver of this trend, especially since 2023 [2][20]. Group 2: China’s Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO, but its financial account has seen capital outflows, indicating a reliance on external demand [13][18]. - The current economic model in China, which relies on current account surpluses for growth, faces challenges due to external pressures such as tariffs and weakening external demand [23][24]. - The need for domestic demand stimulation and structural reforms is emphasized to counterbalance the external challenges and attract capital inflows [23][24]. Group 3: Interconnection of U.S. and China Accounts - The article outlines how the financial account (AI) and current account (tariffs) are interconnected, with the financial account's performance being critical for future economic trends in both countries [20][22]. - For the U.S., the sustainability of capital inflows is contingent on the strength of the AI sector, while for China, the focus should be on stimulating domestic demand to improve the financial account [20][22]. - The potential for a shift in the global investment landscape is highlighted, with the AI narrative playing a pivotal role in determining the flow of capital between the two economies [20][22].