国际货币体系的历史演变 国际货币是在国际市场上充当一般等价物或行使一般等价物职能的货币。国际货币体系的演变是不同时 期货币因素与非货币因素综合作用的结果。不同阶段的国际货币体系运行特征不尽相同，国际金本位 制、布雷顿森林体系、牙买加体系在一定程度上促进了国际经济社会发展，同时也暴露出各自存在的问 题，为未来改革提供了镜鉴。 作者：徐德顺，商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员 国际货币因国际贸易而生，于15世纪地理大发现、国际贸易伙伴大扩容时为早期重商主义者所关注，迄 今已有数百年历史。国际货币体系是国际体系的重要组成部分，由一系列国际货币制度构成，其形成与 发展受到货币内在规律、市场经济需求和地缘政治博弈等多重因素影响。国际货币体系经历了二战前的 国际金本位制、二战后的布雷顿森林体系和牙买加体系三大阶段。其中，牙买加体系的主要特征是 以"脱锚"的主权信用货币为主要国际储备资产，其公平合理性一直以来受到广泛质疑。面对地缘政治博 弈加剧、市场创新加速的现实挑战，国际社会应凝聚共识，促进国际货币体系朝着更加稳健、更有效 率、更加公平合理的方向改革。 一、单一紊乱的国际金本位制 三、令人堪忧的牙买加体系 布雷顿森林体系 ...

当中国央行连续13个月增持黄金储备的消息传来，7158万盎司的数字背后，藏着一条横跨世纪的金融暗线。这不仅是简单的资产配置调整，而是一场关于货 币信用的百年博弈——黄金与美元的较量，从未真正停歇。 数字货币时代的黄金新角色 当各国央行开始研究数字货币时，黄金却意外焕发新生。财信证券研报指出，美联储加息周期结束的预期，正在使黄金"去美元化"功能凸显。中国民生银行 温彬的分析更为直接："黄金超越欧元成为全球第二大储备资产，正是因其脱离了单一主权货币体系。"就像7158万盎司的储备数字，每增加1盎司，都是对 美元信用体系的一次微小但坚定的质疑。 这场持续百年的货币战争远未结束。当38万盎司的月度增持遇上706亿美元的外储增长，中国央行用行动给出了选择题的答案：在美元武器化与地缘冲突叠 加的时代，黄金仍是终极的"金融避雷针"。或许正如那7158万盎司黄金沉默的光芒所暗示的——货币会贬值，但人类对绝对价值的追寻永不褪色。 印钞机与黄金牛市的隐秘联动 翻开美联储资产负债表会发现惊人规律：2008年金融危机后其规模扩张5倍，同期黄金价格从680美元/盎司飙升至2075美元/盎司；2020年疫情后再度扩表 114%，金价随即 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Characteristics - The current gold bull market is characterized by simultaneous increases in both risk assets (stocks) and safe-haven assets (gold) [2] - Gold has significantly outperformed U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar during this bull market [5] - The price of gold has increased approximately 200% since 2018, reflecting its strategic reserve property amid global uncertainties [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Cycles - Historical analysis reveals three distinct cycles of gold price increases: 23-fold from 1970-1980, 6-fold from 2001-2012, and approximately 2-fold from 2018 to present [7] - The first cycle (1970-1980) was driven by inflation concerns, with gold prices rising due to high inflation rates, peaking during the oil crises [6] - The second cycle (2001-2012) was influenced by financial attributes, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis, where gold became a key financial asset [6] Group 3: Macro Factors Influencing Gold - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, opportunity costs, and the collapse of the fiat currency system, reflecting its three properties: commodity, financial, and monetary [8] - The shift in global economic power dynamics has led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, especially as confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries wanes [9] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, marking a notable change in demand structure [7]

Core Viewpoint - The book "Trade Policy Disaster" by Douglas A. Irwin examines the historical recurrence of trade protectionism, particularly during the Great Depression of the 1930s, and its implications for modern economic policy [2][8]. Group 1: Trade Protectionism - Trade protectionism is characterized by self-sufficiency and beggar-thy-neighbor policies, often implemented through high tariffs, import quotas, and foreign exchange controls, leading to the collapse of the international trade system [3][4]. - Once trade barriers are established, they can trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, resulting in a downward spiral that severely hampers global trade and economic recovery [3][8]. Group 2: Causes of Trade Protectionism - The author critiques the notion that trade protectionism arises solely from "special interest politics," arguing that during the Great Depression, the rapid decline in trade outpaced production, reducing external competitive pressures on domestic producers [4][5]. - The limited policy toolbox during the 1930s, particularly the adherence to the gold standard, restricted countries' ability to implement monetary policy, forcing governments to resort to trade restrictions [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Evidence - The book provides empirical evidence from 1930s Europe, where countries faced international balance of payments issues and divided into two models: those maintaining the gold standard and implementing trade protectionism, and those allowing currency devaluation for trade openness [7][8]. - Countries that abandoned the gold standard and adopted flexible monetary policies experienced less trade restriction and better economic recovery during the Great Depression, while those that maintained fixed exchange rates saw a dramatic 25% decline in global trade from 1929 to 1932 [8][9]. Group 4: Contemporary Relevance - The study highlights a persistent policy dilemma: during economic crises, countries must carefully balance their exchange rate and trade policies, recognizing the inherent conflicts between the two [9]. - The historical context of the gold standard's "trilemma" continues to resonate today, as developed economies face similar challenges in managing trade barriers and currency devaluation amidst economic pressures [9].

Core Insights - The price of gold has increased by nearly 30% over the past year as investors seek stability amid geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the likelihood of war with Iraq [2] - Ken Fisher argues that gold is often misinterpreted as a reliable indicator of market performance, suggesting that equities have historically outperformed gold [3][4] - The historical performance of gold and equities shows that while gold has periods of significant gains, equities tend to provide higher long-term returns [7][8] Gold as an Inflation Hedge - Fisher claims that gold is not a great hedge against inflation, citing 2022 when inflation reached 40-year highs while gold experienced declines [5] - The article posits that the inflation seen in 2022 was not true inflation but rather a result of disruptions in global production, leading to higher prices without the underlying economic conditions typically associated with inflation [5] - Historical data indicates that gold's price surged during the 1970s, suggesting it can be a reliable measure of inflation during certain periods [6][9] Market Dynamics - The 2000s saw a significant increase in gold prices, closing the decade at $1,226 per ounce, representing a 360% return, while the S&P 500 declined [8] - The article suggests that gold's current price levels, while high, are relatively modest compared to previous decades, indicating a potential for stronger equity returns if the dollar were not weak [10] - The distinction between inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation as indicated by gold prices raises concerns for investors, as gold may signal deeper economic issues [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that for a currency to achieve internationalization, the issuing country must be a global economic, technological, trade, and financial power. It suggests a phased approach for China to accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi by enhancing economic development, increasing gold reserves, and building a modern financial market system while adhering to market-driven principles [1]. Summary by Sections International Currency Definition - An international currency is widely accepted and used in international economic transactions, characterized by convertibility, relative stability, and broad acceptance. Its internationalization is a natural outcome of historical economic development and a reflection of a country's comprehensive economic, technological, trade, and financial strengths [2]. Historical Review of Major Currencies - The article reviews the internationalization processes of major currencies, highlighting that the U.S. dollar, euro, and British pound have all followed similar paths influenced by economic and geopolitical factors [3]. U.S. Dollar Internationalization - The U.S. dollar became the world's leading international currency starting in 1900, primarily due to: - The Second Industrial Revolution, which established the U.S. as the world's leading economic power [4]. - World Wars I and II, which allowed the U.S. to accumulate substantial gold reserves while remaining largely unaffected by the conflicts [4]. - The "Dollar Diplomacy" policy, which expanded the dollar's influence in Latin America and Europe, particularly through the Marshall Plan post-World War II [5]. - The establishment of the Gold Standard Act, the Federal Reserve System, and the Bretton Woods System, which provided a stable institutional framework for the dollar [7]. Euro Internationalization - The euro emerged as the second-largest international currency within a few decades, driven by: - The establishment of the European Economic and Monetary Union, which laid the groundwork for the euro's creation [8]. - The introduction of the European Currency Unit (ECU), which stabilized member currencies and facilitated trade [8]. - The internationalization of the German mark and French franc, which contributed to the euro's acceptance [9]. - The establishment of the European Central Bank, which ensured monetary stability for the euro [11]. - The strong gold reserves and economic power of eurozone countries, which bolstered the euro's global influence [10]. British Pound Internationalization - The British pound was the first modern international currency, with its internationalization supported by: - The establishment of a modern financial system and the founding of the Bank of England, which provided a stable monetary framework [11]. - The First Industrial Revolution, which positioned the UK as the "world's factory" and increased the pound's use in international trade [11]. - A significant gold reserve, established through colonial expansion and mining, which underpinned the gold standard [12]. - Aggressive foreign investment strategies that enhanced the pound's international standing [12].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes that gold is a form of currency that is least likely to depreciate or be confiscated, reinforcing its historical role as a stable monetary asset [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Significance - Throughout history, currencies have either been backed by hard assets or have been fiat currencies, with the former allowing fixed exchange rates to convert paper money into tangible assets [3]. - The collapse of currency systems often occurs when there is significant debt, leading to either a deflationary depression or inflationary pressures depending on whether governments adhere to or abandon gold convertibility [3]. - Since the shift to a pure fiat currency system in 1971, historical analysis of previous fiat systems during debt excess has become increasingly relevant, with central banks typically resorting to significant money supply increases, driving inflation and gold prices higher [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Risk Considerations - While other currencies can store wealth effectively, holding cash can yield higher returns when interest rates sufficiently offset depreciation risks, suggesting a strategic approach to asset allocation based on market conditions [4]. - Gold's low confiscation risk is a significant advantage, as it does not rely on third-party payment promises and is immune to cyber attacks, making it a preferred asset during financial crises and geopolitical tensions [4][5]. - In times of monetary, debt crises, and wars, the value of gold tends to rise significantly due to increased confiscation risks, highlighting its role as a fundamental currency that has proven its value over millennia [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition from a silver-based monetary system to a gold standard in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, highlighting China's unique position as a major user of silver during this period [3][4][5] - It emphasizes the complex interactions between global monetary changes and China's economic decline, illustrating how foreign powers influenced China's monetary system for their own economic benefits [6][8] Group 1: Historical Context - In the late Ming Dynasty, the demand for a stable currency grew due to the flourishing commodity economy, leading to silver becoming the dominant form of currency in China [4] - The Qing Dynasty faced a chaotic monetary system with multiple currencies in circulation, which hindered economic development and increased transaction costs [5] Group 2: Foreign Influence - Foreign powers, particularly in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, intervened in China's monetary system, using various means to control and influence it for their own economic interests [6][8] - The establishment of foreign banks, such as HSBC, played a significant role in shaping China's silver trading and financial operations, reflecting the passive position of China's monetary system in the international economic landscape [6] Group 3: Reform Efforts - The Nationalist government attempted significant monetary reforms in the early 20th century, including the introduction of the "National Currency" and the abandonment of the silver standard, which aimed to centralize currency issuance and stabilize the economy [7] - Although these reforms faced challenges, they marked a crucial step towards modernizing China's monetary system and ending the reliance on silver [7] Group 4: Conclusion and Implications - The end of the silver era in China illustrates both historical inevitability and contingency, driven by external interventions and internal modernization needs [8] - The study of this period provides valuable insights into the importance of a stable and autonomous monetary system for national economic development, especially in the context of globalization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, nearing $4000 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of declining real interest rates and increased demand from central banks and retail investors, rather than inflation concerns [2][5][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold's price has increased over 50% in the past year, with historical parallels drawn to the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The decline in the 10-year TIPS yield from 2.2% to 1.8% has made gold a more attractive asset as real returns on dollar-denominated bonds diminish [5][7]. - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025 and an additional 166 tons in Q2, indicating a shift towards gold as a non-liability asset [7][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Record inflows into global gold ETFs reached $64 billion from January to September 2025, reflecting a trend of investors using gold as a hedge against uncertainty while still engaging in riskier assets like AI stocks and cryptocurrencies [7][11]. - The current gold buying behavior is characterized by a dual approach of seeking returns while also securing against potential market downturns [7][11]. Group 3: Historical Context - Gold has historically been viewed as the ultimate currency, transitioning from the gold standard to a fiat currency system, which has led to a renewed interest in gold as a hedge against the perceived instability of paper currencies [8][9]. - The rise in gold prices can be seen as a vote against the paper currency system, reflecting a deeper concern about trust in financial institutions and government debt [9][10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Historical patterns suggest that rapid increases in gold prices are often followed by prolonged corrections, indicating potential volatility ahead [10]. - Gold is not merely an anti-dollar asset but is influenced by the broader dynamics of the dollar system, including interest rates and inflation [10]. - The interplay between gold and emerging technologies, such as AI, highlights the complex relationship between optimism for innovation and anxiety about systemic risks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising interest in gold as a reserve asset among central banks globally, driven by increasing distrust in the US dollar and the evolving international monetary order [2][6][8]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article outlines the historical evolution of the monetary system, starting from the gold standard established in 1816, transitioning to the Bretton Woods system in 1944, and finally to the dollar standard post-1971 after the Nixon shock [5][6]. - It highlights the unprecedented international cooperation achieved during the Plaza Accord in 1985, where countries recognized the irreplaceable value of the dollar [5]. Group 2: Current Trends in Gold Holdings - Central banks' gold holdings have surged back to levels not seen since the Bretton Woods era, reaching approximately 37,000 tons, with gold now becoming the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [6]. - Countries like Poland and Indonesia are increasing their gold reserves, with Poland's central bank aiming for gold to constitute 30% of its foreign exchange reserves by 2025 [6]. Group 3: Distrust in the Dollar - There is a growing sentiment of distrust towards the US dollar, even among US citizens, with criticisms aimed at the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies, which are perceived as leading to inflation and financial instability [7]. - The article notes that the lack of a viable alternative to the dollar is driving investors towards gold, which is seen as a "currency G-zero" in the current financial landscape [8]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article suggests that the current trends indicate a significant transformation in the global monetary order, with gold's rising prominence being just the beginning of this change [8]. - Notable investors predict that substantial financial, economic, and political upheavals are likely to occur in the coming years, further influencing the dynamics of currency and reserve asset preferences [8].