美元宽松预期

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镍日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:17
Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The short - term prices of nickel industry chain products are showing a marginal recovery trend, but the fundamental situation of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged, and prices will be under pressure again after the macro - sentiment fades [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The trading sentiment of the US dollar easing expectation has cooled. China's financial data in July was weak, and the economic outlook remains sluggish. The main contract of Shanghai nickel (2509) fell 1.26% to 121,200 yuan/ton. The off - season characteristics of the spot market are still obvious, with supply exceeding demand and weak trading [8]. - The precipitation in the main production areas of the Philippines in the third quarter has limited impact, and shipments will remain at a high level. The approved quota of RKAB in Indonesia is as high as 310 million wet tons, so the supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, and the price is under downward pressure [8]. - Due to the short - term high price of nickel ore, most Indonesian iron plants are still in a state of cost inversion. The NPI price continued to rise, reaching 924.5 yuan/nickel point on the 14th. Large stainless - steel enterprises are still waiting and have limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials [8]. - Supported by cost and rigid restocking of precursors, the price of nickel salts continued to rise. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate on the 14th was flat at 27,530 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh, which is a step towards its goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, achieving similar efficiency with significantly reduced silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10]. - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK power system and Scotland achieve its energy and emission reduction goals [10].
铝日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:11
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of the US dollar easing expectation trading and the weak financial data in July in China, the economic outlook remains sluggish, and Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure and weakens. Maintain the high - short strategy for Shanghai Aluminum due to the off - season and inventory pressure [7]. - Alumina has a surplus in fundamentals, so maintain the idea of selling on rebounds, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by sentiment changes. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both weak, and it continues to operate in a range, with the AD - AL negative spread remaining at a low level for the time being [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 2509 closed at 20,715, down 0.38%, and the 08 - 09 backwardation turned to parity. Cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 510. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream automotive industry is in the off - season, maintaining a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [7]. - After the news stimulus decreases, alumina has a high - level correction. With the unchanged surplus fundamentals, maintain the idea of selling on rebounds. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources decided to adjust the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic clay, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alum [8]. - On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The mining rights of a 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area previously held by GAC have been granted to NMC for 25 years [10]. - The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s bauxite mine in Shanzhou District have been changed, with a valid period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, and a designed production scale of 500,000 tons per year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland, Australia. The construction is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].
全球资产配置每周聚焦(20250802-20250809):特朗普提名美联储理事,全球资金定价宽松预期-20250810
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-10 12:42
Economic Indicators - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is now at 88.90%, up from 80.30% the previous week[3] Market Trends - Global stock markets mostly rose this week, driven by expectations of monetary easing following Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.27%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $0.96 million, while passive funds experienced a larger outflow of $3.44 million from the Chinese market[17] - Domestic funds also faced outflows, with $0.50 million leaving the market, and foreign funds withdrawing $4.40 million[17] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for all A-shares decreased from 64% to 62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP fell from 57% to 53%[3] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 increased from the 48th percentile to the 55th percentile, indicating improved performance expectations[3] Sector Performance - In the US market, funds flowed into the communication, technology, and utilities sectors, while energy, healthcare, and financial sectors saw outflows[3] - In the Chinese market, funds flowed into financials, consumer, and technology sectors, with outflows from infrastructure, real estate, and healthcare[3]