Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the borrowing costs in the U.S. remain sufficiently high compared to Japanese interest rates, providing ongoing support for the U.S. dollar [1] Group 1: Interest Rates and Currency Support - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan has recently exited its zero interest rate policy, raising rates to a still low 0.75% [1] - This interest rate differential continues to support arbitrage trading strategies, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in U.S. assets [1] Group 2: Market Sensitivity and Risks - Such trading strategies have become more sensitive to short-term market fluctuations [1] - Despite the favorable interest rate structure for the U.S. dollar, there remains a risk that Japan may intervene to support the yen at any time [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global risk appetite has increased following a softening of President Trump's stance on European tariffs and Greenland, leading to a pullback in gold prices from near the historical high of $4900. Meanwhile, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, providing support for the dollar and creating short-term pressure on gold prices. However, market caution prevails ahead of key U.S. economic data, limiting the downside potential for gold, with a medium-term bullish structure remaining intact [1][4]. Technical Analysis - The short-term pullback in gold is considered a normal correction following a strong upward trend. The 100-hour moving average is rising and currently positioned below the price at approximately $4720, serving as significant dynamic support. As long as gold prices remain above this moving average, the overall short-term trend is still bullish [1][4]. - In terms of wave structure, the recovery from a low of $4530 to a high of $4889 has established a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $4800, which acts as the first support. The 38.2% retracement level is near $4750; if this level is breached, it could increase the extent of the adjustment [1][4]. - Indicators show that the MACD remains below the zero line, but the green bars are converging, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. The RSI has retreated to around 46, which is in a neutral zone, allowing for potential directional choices in the future. Overall, as long as the 38.2% retracement level is not effectively broken, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [1][4]. Trading Strategy - Day trading support levels are identified at 4815, 4785, and 4742, while resistance levels are at 4864, 4873, 4880, and 4900. A cautious approach is recommended, with a strategy to take profits when favorable [2][5]. - For intraday trading, resistance levels are set at 4860, 4870, and 4900, with support levels at 4815, 4785, and 4742. Traders are advised to consider light positions upon reaching these support and resistance points, with a suggested error margin of ±2 for initial targets of around 15 points, and a potential breakout target of 30 points [6].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia if no progress is made in the Russia-Ukraine conflict within ten days may support the US dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The announcement has led to an increase in oil prices [1] - Rising oil prices contribute to inflation, which reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The increase in oil prices is expected to support the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Sanctions-related risk aversion is likely to further bolster the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of gold prices, indicating that gold is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation [1] - It highlights the importance of the US dollar as a support factor for gold prices, suggesting that the dollar's strength is influencing gold's performance [1] - The article poses a question regarding the next target for gold bears, indicating a focus on potential downward price movements [1]