美元传统的避险地位今年遭遇重大挑战，"避险天堂"头衔仍难以回归。 据追风交易台消息，高盛最新报告显示，美元正经历数十年来最显著的避险属性弱化周期——今年当美股下跌时，美元同步贬值的概率较过去十年飙升逾 两倍，这迫使全球投资者重构外汇对冲策略。政策不确定性、美国回报率优势收窄及资本流动转向三大因素，正形成持续压制美元的力量。 高盛策略师Karen Reichgott Fishman和Lexi Kanter在研报中写道，尽管近期美元与风险资产的相关性已呈现正常化迹象，分析师认为美元仍可能继续表现 为"风险"货币（ "riskier" currency）。该投行建议外国投资者增加外汇对冲，美国投资者则应减少对日元、瑞郎、欧元等防御性货币的对冲，以应对这 一结构性变化。 避险属性弱化成新常态 今年，美元在美股回调时频繁贬值。 高盛数据显示，截至7月初的27周内，股汇双跌现象出现频次较2014-2024年均值高出两倍有余。当周美股下跌时，美元同步走低的概率从历史均值16%跃 升至33%。 更为严重的是，股票、美国国债和美元三者同时下跌的情况也较以往更加频繁，这被视为美国资产整体吸引力下降的关键信号。高盛策略师Karen ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over inflation due to soaring oil prices [1][4][5] - The US dollar index is expected to rise by 0.5%, marking the largest weekly increase in a month, driven by investor fears of potential US military intervention in the region [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the current rebound of the dollar reflects a desire for certainty during turbulent times rather than a reassessment of the US economic fundamentals [4][8] Group 2 - The sharp increase in oil prices has introduced new inflation uncertainties for central banks, complicating their policy decisions between supporting growth and controlling inflation [5] - The Bank of England has expressed vigilance regarding the potential impact of rising oil prices on the UK economy, following a spike of over 10% in oil prices due to recent conflicts [5] - The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates for the sixth consecutive time, contributing to expectations of further policy easing from other central banks, which indirectly supports the dollar's strength [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has further bolstered the dollar, with officials still anticipating two rate cuts this year, despite warnings from the Fed Chair not to overemphasize this outlook [6] - Concerns over tariffs and their impact on costs, corporate profit margins, and overall growth continue to weigh on the dollar, which has declined approximately 9% year-to-date [8] - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the dollar is being tested by various factors, including trade policies, rising fiscal deficits, and challenges to US global leadership [8]

智通财经APP获悉，随着以色列对伊朗的袭击升级，美元作为传统危机避险货币的角色正迎来严峻考 验。在多方压力之下，美元全球货币主导地位出现的裂痕已成为今年金融市场的核心议题。 与历史规律相悖的是，当以色列空袭伊朗目标的新闻爆出时，美元最初应声下跌，随后才逆转走势兑多 数主要货币走强。在WTI原油期货暴涨10%的当日，美国作为全球最大产油国的地位可能助推了美元反 弹。 但就在周四，彭博美元指数触及三年低点，市场担忧关税上调及美国经济前景恶化。席卷美股美债等各 类资产的"卖出美国"交易风潮持续施压，也使美元避险属性备受质疑。 澳洲国民银行驻悉尼策略师Rodrigo Catril表示："首要关注点是美国政府的贸易政策、财政挥霍及对法 治的挑战是否正在弱化美元避险属性。其次，以色列袭击事件显示'美国似乎正在退出地缘政治领导角 色，这为其他国家推行自身议程打开了大门'。" 美国国务卿鲁比奥称美方"未参与"以色列袭击，并警告伊朗不得以美国利益或人员为报复目标。 周五亚洲交易时段，美元指数上涨约0.3%，日元震荡波动，瑞士法郎攀升约0.1%。4月创下历史新高的 黄金涨幅一度达1.7%，美债价格小幅走高。 Bloomberg ...