晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 核心结论 【电子】汇顶科技(603160.SH) 2025 年半年报点评:多点布局新品持续 放量，旺季催化看好业绩增长 公司是指纹传感器全球领先企业，覆盖"传感、AI 计算、连接、安全"四大 核心业务,成长动力充足。我们预计汇顶科技 2025-2027 年营收分别为 55.24、65.8、78.4 亿元，归母净利润分别为 8.56、10.78、12.68 亿元。我 们持续看好公司未来业务拓展及业绩增长,维持"买入"评级。 【电子】聚辰股份（688123.SH）2025 年半年报点评：DDR5 SPD 与车规 EEPROM 齐放量,利润率显著提升 我们预计公司 25/26/27 年营收分别为 13.09/17.95/24.03 亿元,归母净利润 分别为 4.42/6.32/8.67 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 【传媒】芒果超媒（300413.SZ）2025 年上半年业绩点评: 芒果 TV 表现相 对稳定,看好新政下平台发展 我们预计公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 14.47/15.10/18.95 亿元, YoY+6%/+4%/+25%，内容储备丰富 ...

那么，特朗普为什么这么急于提名米兰呢？这还要从他和鲍威尔之间的恩怨说起。自2017年提名鲍威尔 以来，两人在降息问题上就一直存在分歧。鲍威尔坚持美联储的独立性，多次拒绝了白宫"迅速降息"的 要求。这导致特朗普对鲍威尔心生不满，甚至在社交媒体上骂他是"灾难""太迟先生"。 如今，特朗普提名米兰，显然是想绕过鲍威尔，直接在美联储内部安插一个"听话的人"。这样一来，他 就可以通过操控货币政策来为自己的连任竞选筹码。然而，米兰的"降息药方"真的能够拯救美国经济 吗？ 事实并非如此。米兰在财政部时力推的低利率政策，早就被证明是饮鸩止渴。2020年，美联储实行零利 率和无限量量化宽松政策，结果导致通胀飙升至40年新高。现在，美国经济刚有点降温迹象，特朗普又 想故伎重演，这无疑是在火上浇油。 特朗普的这种做法，不仅损害了美联储的百年信誉，也破坏了全球金融秩序。国际投资者已经开始抛售 美债，美元指数也一度跌破98.6，创一年新低。如果放任这种政治化操作继续下去，美元的"避险光 环"恐怕真的要彻底凉凉了。 8月8日，美国总统特朗普突然宣布了一项重大人事提名，引发了各界的广泛关注。他提名白宫经济顾问 斯蒂芬・米兰接任美联储理事， ...

马科斯紧握着白宫协议，手指上的青筋暴起——美国单方面19%的关税像一把悬顶的利剑，而菲律宾却 向美国敞开了零关税的大门，完全没有反击之力。与此同时，特朗普在镜头前轻松一笑："我很快要去 中国！"这句话就像狠狠抽在马科斯的脸上，狠狠戳破了他心中的幻想。与此同时，他背后电子屏上的 116亿美元天然气采购单，也在此时透露出冷汗。更令人不解的是，第一夫人丽莎的专机航线，竟然巧 妙地避开了华盛顿，仿佛在暗示着什么。美国优先的政策，似乎连最亲密的盟友都不能幸免。那么，精 心设计的白宫剧情背后，究竟隐藏了什么不为人知的秘密？ 1%的关税恩赐与零关税陷阱 7月22日，白宫玫瑰园的聚光灯下，特朗普突然抓过话筒宣布："关税从20%降到19%——感谢我的慷 慨！"现场记者闻风而动，迅速嗅到了血腥味：协议细节显示，菲律宾将永远对美国商品实行零关税， 而美国对菲律宾的关税依然保持在19%。这意味着菲律宾每年将为美国付出26.8亿美元（根据2024年 142亿美元的出口额计算）。更加令人心寒的是，与其他国家相比，菲律宾的待遇简直是最差的：日本 与美国达成了15%的互惠关税，越南和印尼的关税分别为20%和19%，而菲律宾作为美国的"唯一条 ...

Core Points - The U.S. will impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 global trade partners starting August 7, with India facing a 25% tariff, the highest among major economies [1][3] - Trump's administration aims to reduce trade deficits and encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S. through these tariffs, impacting allies like Japan, South Korea, and the UK as well [3][4] - The tariffs are also seen as a strategy to pressure Russia regarding the Ukraine situation, as India is a significant buyer of Russian oil [4][6] Trade Relations - The trade volume between the U.S. and India is projected to exceed $118 billion in the fiscal year 2023-2024, making the U.S. India's largest trade partner [3] - Trump's comments highlight that high tariffs and non-tariff barriers from India have limited trade relations, despite India being a key player in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy [3][4] Geopolitical Implications - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to leverage economic pressure on Russia, with India’s continued purchase of Russian oil being a critical factor [4][6] - India's relationship with Russia is characterized as a "privileged special strategic partnership," making it unlikely for India to significantly reduce oil imports from Russia despite U.S. pressure [7] Domestic Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of domestic manufacturing and consumption, indicating a reluctance to compromise economic interests for U.S. favor [7] - The Indian government faces domestic criticism regarding its relationship with the U.S., particularly in light of recent geopolitical tensions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican President responded to the U.S. Department of Transportation's sanctions against Mexico, asserting that the decision was made for security reasons and emphasizing Mexico's right to address airport congestion issues, framing it as a matter of national sovereignty [1] Summary by Relevant Categories U.S.-Mexico Aviation Relations - The U.S. Department of Transportation accused Mexico of violating the 2015 U.S.-Mexico air transport agreement, claiming that since 2022, Mexico has forced U.S. cargo airlines to withdraw from Mexico City International Airport and restricted flight schedules, disrupting market order and causing U.S. companies losses of millions of dollars [1] - The U.S. plans to impose three restrictions on Mexican airlines and may deny future flight applications, reflecting a continuation of the "America First" policy from the Trump administration aimed at curbing perceived abuses in the aviation market by Mexico [1] Bilateral Economic Relations - Recent tensions between the U.S. and Mexico have escalated in the aviation and agricultural sectors, indicating a new round of challenges for bilateral economic relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on goods imported from the Philippines, exacerbating the economic and strategic challenges faced by the Southeast Asian nation, which had previously relied on U.S. support for trade and security [1][3]. Economic Impact - The 20% tariff will significantly increase export costs for the Philippines' key industries, including electronics, textiles, and agriculture, which already have profit margins below 5% [3]. - In August, the Philippines' electronic exports reached $3.57 billion, accounting for 52.9% of total exports, but the high tariffs may weaken its competitiveness in the global supply chain [3]. - Agricultural exports have also suffered, with a 14.3% year-on-year decline in 2023, particularly affecting major products like coconuts and mangoes [3]. - The peso has been depreciating, leading to rising import costs and increased domestic inflation, with rice prices rising 19.6% year-on-year by December 2023 [3]. Government Response - President Marcos plans to negotiate with the U.S. to reduce the tariff rate to 10% and secure exemptions for critical exports like semiconductors [3]. - The negotiations may require the Philippines to open its markets further to U.S. products, including pork and poultry, which could lead to more market share being ceded to U.S. capital [3]. Public Sentiment - Public opinion in the Philippines is shifting, with 72% of citizens identifying inflation as the most pressing issue and 73% dissatisfied with the government's handling of it [5]. - There is growing discontent regarding the U.S. tariff policy, with sentiments emerging on social media that criticize the Philippines' alignment with U.S. interests [5]. Geopolitical Context - The U.S. tariff measures are part of a broader pattern affecting multiple countries, indicating a potentially arbitrary and destructive trade policy under the "America First" agenda [5]. - The unpredictability of U.S. trade policies is undermining its credibility as a partner, creating opportunities for deeper cooperation between China and ASEAN nations [5][7]. - The Philippines risks becoming a geopolitical pawn if it continues to align closely with the U.S. in the context of regional power dynamics [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the dual pressure faced by Japan and South Korea from the United States regarding defense spending and tariffs [1] - President Trump has demanded that South Korea increase its annual defense spending for U.S. troops stationed there to $10 billion, which is significantly higher than the current agreement [2][6] - South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it will continue to adhere to the existing Special Measures Agreement, which stipulates a defense cost of approximately $11.34 million for 2026, reflecting an 8.3% increase from 2025 [3][5] Group 2 - Japan is also under similar pressure, with Trump previously requesting an increase in defense spending, although no specific amount has been disclosed [4][8] - The current agreement between Japan and the U.S. requires Japan to cover approximately $7.41 billion for the fiscal years 2022 to 2026, with the agreement typically updated every five years [8] - Japanese officials have emphasized that the defense spending agreement is separate from tariff negotiations, indicating a desire to maintain a stable defense cost structure [9] Group 3 - Both countries have expressed dissatisfaction with the recent tariff increases announced by Trump, which are set to take effect on August 1 [10][12] - There is a growing sentiment among the public in both Japan and South Korea against U.S. policies, with trust in the U.S. government declining significantly in Japan [11][14] - Recent polls indicate a marked increase in the perception that the U.S.-South Korea relationship is deteriorating, reflecting the impact of Trump's "America First" policy [14]

Group 1 - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is pressuring South Korea and Japan to significantly increase their defense spending for U.S. troops stationed in their countries, with Trump suggesting a figure of $10 billion for South Korea [1][2] - South Korea's current defense spending under the 12th Special Measures Agreement is approximately 11.34 million USD for 2026, which is significantly lower than Trump's demand [2] - Japan's defense spending for U.S. troops is set at approximately 74.1 million USD for the fiscal years 2022 to 2026, with no specific demands from Trump yet, but previous dissatisfaction has been expressed [2][3] Group 2 - Both South Korea and Japan are responding to U.S. tariff threats with a mix of negotiation and emphasis on protecting their national interests, indicating a potential shift towards greater independence from U.S. influence [4] - Recent public opinion polls show a significant decline in trust towards the U.S. among Japanese citizens, with only 22% expressing trust, and a doubling of South Koreans who believe the U.S.-Korea relationship has worsened [5]

Group 1 - Trump plans to impose tariffs on specific industries, including a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign supplies and ensure national security [1] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the copper tariffs will be implemented in late July or August 1, with investigations into pharmaceuticals and semiconductors expected to conclude by the end of the month [1] - Copper is critical for military equipment, electric vehicles, data centers, and power networks, highlighting its importance to U.S. defense and emerging technologies [1] Group 2 - The global semiconductor industry faces a new supply chain crisis due to droughts affecting copper supply, with a report indicating that climate-related disruptions could impact 32% of global semiconductor capacity by 2035 [3][4] - Chile, the largest copper producer, is grappling with water shortages that threaten production, with 25% of its copper production currently at risk, projected to rise to 75% in ten years [5][6] - If material innovations do not adapt to climate challenges, the risk of copper supply disruptions will continue to escalate, affecting major copper-producing countries [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing tensions in Sino-U.S. relations since the Trump administration, emphasizing the need for bilateral cooperation to improve the situation [1][3][4] - Experts attribute the strained relationship to multiple factors, including domestic political dynamics in the U.S. and the evolving nature of both countries' policies [3][4] - The Trump administration's "America First" policy and its trade war are seen as attempts to address domestic fiscal issues and revitalize U.S. manufacturing, rather than a direct intention to harm other nations [4] Group 2 - Scholars suggest that despite current difficulties, there are still opportunities for cooperation in various fields, and rebuilding trust is essential [5][6] - Historical examples, such as the 1971 invitation of the U.S. table tennis team to China, are cited as potential models for improving relations through smaller, symbolic gestures [5] - The need for the U.S. to recognize the interconnectedness of trade, investment, technology, and finance is emphasized, as well as the importance of addressing economic challenges collaboratively [6]