Market Overview - Gold prices reached a high of $3508.92 per ounce, reflecting a strong upward trend amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [3][4] - The current gold price is quoted at $3497.71, indicating a high volatility environment with significant fluctuations [1] Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet mentioned that several candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are also potential nominees for the vacant positions on the central bank's board [1] - President Trump criticized India for proposing to reduce tariffs to zero after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian oil purchases from Russia, stating it was too late for such negotiations [2] Technical Analysis - The gold market is showing a strong bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $3505 and $3530, while support levels are identified at $3490, $3480, and $3452 [8] - A potential strategy includes short positions near $3515 with a stop loss at $3525 and targets at $3500 and $3490, as well as aggressive long positions near $3470 with a stop loss at $3465 and targets at $3485 and $3500 [8] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to watch includes the Eurozone's August CPI and the U.S. manufacturing PMI reports scheduled for release on September 2, 2025 [8]

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is driving funds towards non-yielding gold [1][3] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions are supporting safe-haven gold [1][3] - Despite a mild rebound in the dollar, these supportive factors for gold have largely offset any negative impacts [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have continued to rise for six consecutive days, reaching a historical high and breaking the psychological barrier of $3,500 per ounce [1] - Short-term charts indicate an extremely overbought condition, suggesting that gold bulls should exercise caution before further positioning for an increase [3] - Important U.S. macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payroll report, is set to be released this week, leading investors to potentially adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - The interest in gold remains strong amid rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, supported by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, concerns over the Fed's independence, and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have continued to rise for six consecutive days, reaching a historic high and surpassing the psychological barrier of $3,500 per ounce [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month is a key factor driving funds towards non-yielding gold [1] - The uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions are additional factors supporting safe-haven gold [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The slight rebound of the U.S. dollar has had minimal impact on the upward momentum of gold prices [1] - Short-term charts indicate an extremely overbought condition, suggesting that gold bulls should exercise caution before further positioning for an increase [1] - Upcoming releases of significant U.S. macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payroll report, may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach [1]

Core Insights - The ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs may impact India's trade performance in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 1 - The report highlights that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is a significant factor affecting India's economic outlook [1] - Potential trade performance issues could arise as a result of these tariff uncertainties, suggesting a cautious approach for businesses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's manufacturing activity has entered a contraction phase in July due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, with the manufacturing PMI dropping below the neutral mark for the first time in 13 months [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value for July fell from June's final value of 50.1 to 48.8, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Key sub-indices such as output and new orders decreased at the fastest rates in four months and three months, respectively, as companies reassess the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] Services Sector - In contrast to manufacturing, Japan's services sector continues to perform well, with activity growth reaching its fastest pace in five months driven by strong demand [1] Future Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies is negatively impacting expectations for the upcoming year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following Israel's airstrikes on Iran and Iran's drone retaliation, have led to a surge in gold futures, approaching the historical high of $3,509.90 per ounce reached in mid-April [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices are rising due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid fears of further escalation in the Middle East [1] - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach new historical highs due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Potential Outcomes - There remains a possibility for de-escalation of the conflict, which could lead to a short-term downward adjustment in gold prices [1] - Despite the potential for price corrections, the current risk-laden environment appears to support bullish momentum for gold [1]

Group 1 - The chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane, indicated that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs will be incorporated into the June forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is leading companies to increasingly postpone capital expenditure plans and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 1 - Companies are becoming more cautious in their investment strategies due to the unpredictability of U.S. tariffs [1] - The trend of delaying capital expenditures indicates a shift in corporate behavior influenced by external economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Goldman Sachs, Hazus, indicates that the US dollar is expected to decline further due to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and concerns about an economic recession [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty regarding US tariffs is impacting the strength of the US dollar [1] - Concerns about a potential economic recession are contributing to the anticipated decline of the dollar [1]