油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/03/05 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 分析师预计美国2025-26年度大豆年末库存料为3.44亿蒲式耳 分析师预计供需报告将显示，美国2025-26年度大豆年末库存平均预计为3.44亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于2.65-3.5亿 蒲式耳，USDA2月供需报告中预测为3.50亿蒲式耳。 分析师预计全球2025-26年度大豆年末库存平均预计为1.2474亿吨，预估区间介于1.233-1.26亿吨，USDA2月供需报 告预测为1.2551亿吨。 截至2月26日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增30-110万吨 分析师预估显示，截至2月26日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增30-110万吨，其中2025/26市场年度料净增30-100万 吨，2026/27市场年度料净增0-10万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增20-55万吨，其中当前市场年度料净增20-45万吨，下一市场年度料净增0-10万吨。美国豆 油出口销售料净减2万吨至净增2.6万吨，其中当前市场年度料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，下一市场年度料净减1万吨至 净增1.万吨。 Anec：巴西3月大豆出口料为1,610万吨 Anec表示，巴 ...

中东紧张局势持续升级。 当地时间3月3日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队公共关系部宣布，已经针对地区的美军目标展开"真实承诺-4"行动的第 15轮攻击。本轮导弹攻击重创了位于巴林一处美军基地内的10个关键地点。 同日，以色列国防军表示，以色列空军连夜袭击了伊朗在德黑兰的"领导层建筑群"。以军称，此次袭击的目标 建筑包括伊朗总统府、伊朗最高国家安全委员会总部等重要机构。 市场层面，黄金、白银等贵金属价格全线跳水，现货黄金一度大跌超4%，现货白银日内一度暴跌超12%，截 至北京时间3日21:00，现货黄金跌超2%，现货白银大跌超7%，现货铂金暴跌超8%，现货钯金大跌超5%。 美元指数则持续走强，日内一度大涨近1%，截至北京时间21:00，涨幅为0.64%，周一美元指数收涨0.93%。 伊朗：重创美军基地 据央视新闻，当地时间3月3日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队公共关系部发布公告称，已经针对地区的美军目标展 开"真实承诺-4"行动的第15轮攻击。 伊朗方面称，本轮导弹攻击重创了位于巴林一处美军基地内的10个关键地点。被摧毁的目标包括美军空中指挥 控制中心、飞机加油的油箱以及美军高级指挥官住所。实地和卫星情报检测显示，该基地所有基础设施 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced volatility due to rumors about President Trump considering the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a drop in the US dollar index by 0.36% to 98.244 [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.463%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.959%, indicating fluctuations in bond markets amid the uncertainty [1] - Gold prices saw significant movement, initially rising above $3,370 per ounce before closing at $3,347.54, reflecting market reactions to the rumors and subsequent denial from Trump [1] Group 2 - The report indicated that Trump was contemplating Powell's dismissal due to a $2.5 billion cost overrun in a Federal Reserve building renovation project, which raised concerns about the stability of monetary policy [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, leading to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and trade war risks are expected to keep precious metal prices in a volatile but upward trend [1] Group 3 - Oil prices have been fluctuating within a range, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $66.60 per barrel after a slight decline of 0.13% [3] - The EIA reported a decrease of 3.859 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending July 11, which was significantly higher than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels [3] - Market sentiment regarding oil prices is mixed, with expectations of a potential oversupply later in the year contributing to the recent price movements [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

Core Viewpoint - Efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East appear to be one-sided, with Iran signaling restraint while Israel continues its aggressive stance [1] Group 1: Middle East Tensions - Iranian signals of restraint contrast with Israel's commitment to continue its attacks, indicating a lack of mutual de-escalation [1] - The situation suggests that any de-escalation is superficial and primarily unilateral, which could impact market perceptions [1] Group 2: Energy Market Implications - The global energy supply remains fragile, and even minor disruptions could significantly affect oil flow and market sentiment [1] - The risk appetite for energy markets and safe-haven assets is skewed upwards due to the ongoing tensions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military has deployed a significant number of refueling aircraft to Europe amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, providing President Trump with strategic options [1] Group 1 - The deployment of refueling aircraft is a response to increasing tensions in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is heading to the Middle East, although this action was pre-planned [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. military has deployed a significant number of refueling aircraft to Europe amid rising tensions in the Middle East, providing President Trump with options [1]

Group 1 - The core discussion between the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Trump focused on the Middle East tensions and their impact on the energy market [1] - They also evaluated the ongoing US-EU trade negotiations, with the EU expressing a desire to reach an agreement by July 9 [1] - The situation in Ukraine was another topic of discussion between the two leaders [1] Group 2 - The G7 summit is scheduled to take place from July 15 to 17 in Canmore, Alberta, Canada [1] - This summit marks Trump's first participation since the beginning of his second presidential term [1]

Group 1 - The Middle East tensions have escalated, leading to a surge in international oil prices and a significant increase in gold prices [1][2] - Iran has launched a third wave of missile attacks, firing approximately 150 missiles towards Israel, with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that many Iranian missile stockpiles and nuclear facilities have been destroyed [1][4] - The U.S. stock markets experienced a collective decline, with major indices dropping over 1% [6][9] Group 2 - International crude oil futures saw a substantial increase, with WTI crude oil rising by $4.94, a 7.26% increase, closing at $72.98 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rising by $4.87, a 7.02% increase, closing at $74.23 per barrel [7] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.48%, closing at $3452.3 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 3.18% [2] - The energy sector showed significant gains, with Houston energy rising over 119% and U.S. energy up over 55% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following Israel's airstrikes on Iran and Iran's drone retaliation, have led to a surge in gold futures, approaching the historical high of $3,509.90 per ounce reached in mid-April [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices are rising due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid fears of further escalation in the Middle East [1] - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach new historical highs due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Potential Outcomes - There remains a possibility for de-escalation of the conflict, which could lead to a short-term downward adjustment in gold prices [1] - Despite the potential for price corrections, the current risk-laden environment appears to support bullish momentum for gold [1]