来源：许安鸿 周三（7月16日）有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的传闻引发市场震荡，美元指数盘中跳水，最终收跌0.36%，报98.244。美债收益率美盘初短线拉升，随后有所回 落，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.463%，2年期美债收益率收报3.959%。现货黄金坐上过山车，一度升破3370美元关口，但在特朗普否认已起草解雇信函 后收窄涨幅，最终收涨0.67%，收报3347.54美元/盎司。 周三媒体报道称特朗普正在考虑解除美联储主席鲍威尔职务，理由是美联储大楼翻新项目出现25亿美元的成本超支。尽管特朗普否认将会立即解雇鲍威尔， 但是未明确排除这一可能性，这一模糊态度引发市场猜测与担忧。而此前发布的CPI月增0.3%，令市场预期美联储或将继续延后降息决定。美联储易主传闻 愈演愈烈引发市场对货币政策稳定性的担忧，以及中东紧张局势持续与关税战风险，预计贵金属价格将呈震荡偏强格局，继续看好后续金银的表现。 金价上周下探3280一线的支撑后持续反弹，连续三个交易日收阳，周一受阻于3375一线随后回落，周二继续收阴，周三强势反弹一度突破3375的阻力，目前 来看油价继续上行概率较大，上方有望测试3400关口的阻力。四小时线，昨日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

机构：缓和伊以紧张局势的努力似乎是单方面的 金十数据6月17日讯，瑞讯市场策略师伊佩克•奥兹卡德克斯亚表示，缓解中东紧张局势的努力似乎是单 方面的。虽然伊朗似乎在发出克制的信号，但特朗普敦促撤离伊朗，以色列誓言要继续进行袭击。这充 其量只是单方面的降级，并使能源市场和避险资产的风险倾向于上行。全球能源供应依然脆弱，不需要 太大的努力就能动摇石油的实物流动，并在瞬间扭转市场情绪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military has deployed a significant number of refueling aircraft to Europe amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, providing President Trump with strategic options [1] Group 1 - The deployment of refueling aircraft is a response to increasing tensions in the Middle East [1] - The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is heading to the Middle East, although this action was pre-planned [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. military has deployed a significant number of refueling aircraft to Europe amid rising tensions in the Middle East, providing President Trump with options [1]

Group 1 - The core discussion between the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Trump focused on the Middle East tensions and their impact on the energy market [1] - They also evaluated the ongoing US-EU trade negotiations, with the EU expressing a desire to reach an agreement by July 9 [1] - The situation in Ukraine was another topic of discussion between the two leaders [1] Group 2 - The G7 summit is scheduled to take place from July 15 to 17 in Canmore, Alberta, Canada [1] - This summit marks Trump's first participation since the beginning of his second presidential term [1]

中东紧张局势加剧，国际油价飙升，金价大涨。欧美股市集体下跌。 据央视新闻报道，伊朗已发动第三波导弹袭击，向以色列方向发射约150枚导弹。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，已摧毁大量伊朗导弹库存和多个核设施； 以军称伊朗大不里士的空军基地被完全摧毁。 美国总统特朗普13日表示，以色列空袭伊朗后，伊朗核计划是否存在尚不确定。美伊谈判仍计划于15日举行，但他也不确定谈判能否举行。 在阿曼斡旋下，美国和伊朗自今年4月以来已举行五轮间接会谈，取得一定进展，但双方在若干核心问题上分歧依然突出。美方坚持伊朗应全面停止所有 级别的铀浓缩活动，而伊方强调，适度开展铀浓缩活动是其和平利用核能权利的一部分，拒绝"零浓缩"要求。伊朗外交部6月10日凌晨发表声明说，伊朗 将于15日与美国举行下一轮会谈。 欧美股市集体下跌 油价飙升金价大涨 中东紧张局势加剧，国际油价飙升，金价大涨。 周五COMEX黄金期货收涨1.48%，报3452.3美元/盎司，本周累计上涨3.18%。COMEX白银期货涨0.14%，报36.345美元/盎司，本周累涨0.57%。 伊朗对以发动导弹袭击 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间13日，白宫官员称，美国总统特朗普与以色列总理 ...

金十数据6月13日讯，在以色列夜间对伊朗发动空袭、随后伊朗发动无人机反击后，黄金期货因避险需 求上涨，接近4月中旬创下的每盎司3509.90美元的历史高点。Tradu.com分析师Nikos Tzabouras写道，由 于担心中东局势进一步升级，再加上美国关税的不确定性，金价可能达到历史新高。不过，缓和冲突和 遏制冲突的道路仍然是开放的。如果紧张局势缓解，金价可能面临短期的向下调整。尽管如此，考虑到 当前充满风险的背景，看涨势头似乎得到了很好的支撑。 中东紧张局势加剧，黄金期货或挑战纪录高位 ...

美国官员：由于中东紧张局势，美国中央司令部司令推迟了原定于星期四在国会作证的时间。 ...

计划你的交易，交易你的计划，趋势面前不要心存侥幸，否则一不小心被套后痛苦不堪，心烦意乱，越乱越慌，越不知所措，然后不断逆势加仓，结果苦不 堪言。市场充满了机会，机会是留给有准备的人的，假如你每次还是错过机会都是垂手顿足，结果又是拍大腿。市场中赚钱不要过于沾沾自喜，赔钱也不要 垂头丧气，试着保持平衡，对自己的交易持职业化的观点，不要指望交易中一定会这样或者那样，你所要寻求的是对事实的深思熟虑，而不是捕风捉影。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周一（5月5日）欧市尾盘，现货黄金震荡上涨，目前交投于3315.44美元/盎司附近，涨幅约0.92%。本周将迎来美联储利率决议，料将主 导本周行情，另外，需要继续关注国际贸易局势的相关消息。继就业数据周后，市场焦点转向本周三（5月7日）美联储5月FOMC会议（北京时间周四凌晨 公布利率决议及新闻发布会）。尽管市场已定价按兵不动，但鲍威尔主席4月鹰派表态后的最新发言及记者问答将引发高度关注。周五多位联储官员将赴冰 岛雷克雅未克经济会议，就人工智能、就业及货币政策研究等议题参与讨论。 黄金技术面分析：从黄金日线图看，上周五金价冲高回落录得带长上影线的K线形态，价格再度反 ...