尽管已获得总统特朗普的公开背书，一份旨在避免美国政府部分停摆的两党支出协议在周四深夜遭遇阻 碍，导致预测市场暗示的政府停摆概率飙升至70%。 参议院领导层原计划于周四晚间通过该融资方案，但因至少一名参议员提出异议，导致快速投票程序受 阻。参议院多数党领袖John Thune与少数党领袖Chuck Schumer被迫将审议推迟至周五，这使得立法者 在周五午夜资金到期前仅剩数小时的应对时间，市场面临巨大的不确定性。 Thune承认谈判"双方都遇到了障碍"，并表示随着参议院计划于周五复会，希望各方能达成共识以完成 立法。Schumer则将延误归咎于共和党人，呼吁对方"统一行动"。随着立法僵局持续，投资者对华盛顿 政治风险的担忧显著升温，密切关注这一"生死时速"般的谈判进展。 此次程序性延误主要源于对特定法律条款及国土安全部（DHS）资金期限的争议，这使得旨在避免拨款 中断的一致同意协议变得复杂化，令达成最终方案的路径充满变数。 Graham阻挠快速投票 据The Epoch Times报道，参议员Lindsey Graham对该方案实施了拦截，阻止了快速通过投票所需的"一 致同意"程序。Graham指出的核心分歧在 ...

新华财经北京1月27日电美元指数日内继续下跌，逼近2022年2月以来低点。市场屏息等待美联储稍后的利率决议，以寻找美元方向线索。 欧洲交易时段盘中，美元指数日内跌幅扩大至约0.50%，现报96.61。其他主要货币对美元均维持涨势，欧元兑美元涨0.3%至1.1920，创2021年6月 以来最高水平。英镑兑美元涨0.4%至1.3730，创去年7月2日以来最高水平。澳元兑美元一度涨0.54%至0.6952，创2023年2月以来的新高。 高盛预计，美联储将在6月进行下一次25个基点的降息，随后在9月进行本轮周期最后一次降息，利率目标区间将降至3%-3.25%。这与联邦基金期 货合约目前定价大致相符，即到2026年底累计降息约46个基点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 当前汇市正处于政策敏感期，美联储利率决议、美国财政风险及地缘政治动向均可能成为打破僵局的关键变量。美元短线可能维持低位震荡格 局，直至美联储决议给出关于利率路径的更清晰信号。FP Markets分析师Aaron Hill表示，若鲍威尔明确回击政治压力，展现出捍卫美联储独立性 的坚定立场，可能推升美元；而若其表态倾向于支持渐进式降息，则可能进一步打压美元走势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The political polarization, debt expansion, and fiscal imbalance in the United States are expected to continue impacting global markets, making the identification and management of U.S. political risks a crucial aspect of global asset allocation [1][8]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Political Risks - The recent temporary funding bill signed by President Trump ended a 43-day government shutdown, but it highlights long-term vulnerabilities in the U.S. fiscal system and the reality of political polarization [4][5]. - The funding extension only lasts until January 30, 2026, indicating that the fiscal "cliff" has merely been postponed, and future budget negotiations may lead to another shutdown [4][5]. Group 2: Economic and Investment Implications - Political risks are increasingly transforming into investment risks, as fiscal uncertainty diminishes the predictability of the U.S. economy, particularly affecting key investment areas like infrastructure and research [5][7]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $35 trillion, exceeding 120% of GDP, which raises concerns about future debt ceiling negotiations and potential increases in treasury yields, impacting global financing costs [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The end of the shutdown has temporarily improved market sentiment, with stock markets and the dollar index rebounding, but historical trends suggest this optimism may not last [6][7]. - The U.S. fiscal issues represent a long-term structural risk, with rising interest payments potentially consuming a significant portion of federal revenue in the next decade [7][8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to enhance risk defense by optimizing global asset allocation, increasing exposure to quality assets in Asia and Europe, and using defensive assets like gold and short-term bonds to hedge against volatility [8]. - Establishing a dynamic policy risk monitoring system is recommended for institutional investors to assess the effects of U.S. fiscal negotiations and Federal Reserve policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce and silver prices reaching historical highs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On October 13, the domestic futures market saw the Shanghai gold main contract reach a new high of 928.88 yuan per gram, closing up 1.99% [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price also rose, breaking the $4070 per ounce mark [1]. - Since late September, international gold prices have increased significantly, with a weekly rise of 3.4% for gold and 4.47% for silver, leading to a gold-silver ratio drop to around 81 [3]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Holdings - As of September 23, the total gold holdings reported by the U.S. CFTC increased by 12,568 contracts to 528,789 contracts, with non-commercial net positions rising by 339 contracts to 266,749 contracts [3]. - Silver holdings also saw an increase, with total holdings up by 2,851 contracts to 165,805 contracts, and non-commercial net positions rising by 738 contracts to 52,276 contracts [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting economic stability and diminishing the long-term credit appeal of the U.S. dollar and assets, potentially leading global central banks and investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against political risks [3]. - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, while initially bearish for gold prices, is overshadowed by ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other regional issues [4]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The average weekly price for 1 silver ingots was 10,975 yuan per kilogram, up 670 yuan from the previous week [4]. - COMEX silver futures saw a non-commercial long position increase of 695 contracts to 72,318 contracts, while short positions decreased by 43 contracts to 20,042 contracts [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If the U.S. government shutdown persists, it may lead to a lack of clear economic data, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodative monetary policy to counteract recession risks [4]. - Despite the recent price increases, potential corrections may occur if budget disagreements in the U.S. are resolved or if Federal Reserve officials issue hawkish statements [5]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains strong as they are viewed as valuable safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainties [6].