在宋清辉看来，美国政治极化、债务膨胀与财政失衡的阴影，或将会继续笼罩全球市场。对投资者而言，识别并管理美国的政治风险，已成为全 球资产配置的新的一堂"必修课"。 著名经济学家 宋清辉 【沪港通锦囊】管理"美国风险"成投资必修课 美国总统特朗普近日在白宫签署国会通过的临时拨款法案，标志着持续43天、创下历史纪录的联邦政府停摆暂告一段落。虽然市场因此迎来短暂的「复工喜 讯」，但这场政治僵局暴露出美国财政体系的长期隐患与政治极化的现实困境，也再次提醒全球投资者，美国并非绝对安全的投资目的地，其政治与财政风 险正逐步成为全球资本配置中无法忽视的变数。 笔者认为，美国政府「重开」并不意味着风险消除。注意到，此次通过的《持续拨款与延期法案》仅将联邦政府资金延至2026年1月30日，属于典型的过渡 性拨款。换言之，美国财政的「悬崖」只是被延后了。届时若两党在预算、债务上限、社会福利等议题上再陷僵局，美国仍可能面临新一轮停摆。不难发 现，财政谈判短期化、政治化的趋势，已使得美国政府运作的不确定性大大上升，同时也暴露了美国制度性治理的弱点，其风险不容忽视。 美国政治风险正转成投资风险 对市场而言，这种政治风险正逐渐转化为投资风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce and silver prices reaching historical highs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On October 13, the domestic futures market saw the Shanghai gold main contract reach a new high of 928.88 yuan per gram, closing up 1.99% [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price also rose, breaking the $4070 per ounce mark [1]. - Since late September, international gold prices have increased significantly, with a weekly rise of 3.4% for gold and 4.47% for silver, leading to a gold-silver ratio drop to around 81 [3]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Holdings - As of September 23, the total gold holdings reported by the U.S. CFTC increased by 12,568 contracts to 528,789 contracts, with non-commercial net positions rising by 339 contracts to 266,749 contracts [3]. - Silver holdings also saw an increase, with total holdings up by 2,851 contracts to 165,805 contracts, and non-commercial net positions rising by 738 contracts to 52,276 contracts [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting economic stability and diminishing the long-term credit appeal of the U.S. dollar and assets, potentially leading global central banks and investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against political risks [3]. - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, while initially bearish for gold prices, is overshadowed by ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other regional issues [4]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The average weekly price for 1 silver ingots was 10,975 yuan per kilogram, up 670 yuan from the previous week [4]. - COMEX silver futures saw a non-commercial long position increase of 695 contracts to 72,318 contracts, while short positions decreased by 43 contracts to 20,042 contracts [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If the U.S. government shutdown persists, it may lead to a lack of clear economic data, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodative monetary policy to counteract recession risks [4]. - Despite the recent price increases, potential corrections may occur if budget disagreements in the U.S. are resolved or if Federal Reserve officials issue hawkish statements [5]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains strong as they are viewed as valuable safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainties [6].