Core Viewpoint - The political polarization, debt expansion, and fiscal imbalance in the United States are expected to continue impacting global markets, making the identification and management of U.S. political risks a crucial aspect of global asset allocation [1][8]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Political Risks - The recent temporary funding bill signed by President Trump ended a 43-day government shutdown, but it highlights long-term vulnerabilities in the U.S. fiscal system and the reality of political polarization [4][5]. - The funding extension only lasts until January 30, 2026, indicating that the fiscal "cliff" has merely been postponed, and future budget negotiations may lead to another shutdown [4][5]. Group 2: Economic and Investment Implications - Political risks are increasingly transforming into investment risks, as fiscal uncertainty diminishes the predictability of the U.S. economy, particularly affecting key investment areas like infrastructure and research [5][7]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $35 trillion, exceeding 120% of GDP, which raises concerns about future debt ceiling negotiations and potential increases in treasury yields, impacting global financing costs [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The end of the shutdown has temporarily improved market sentiment, with stock markets and the dollar index rebounding, but historical trends suggest this optimism may not last [6][7]. - The U.S. fiscal issues represent a long-term structural risk, with rising interest payments potentially consuming a significant portion of federal revenue in the next decade [7][8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to enhance risk defense by optimizing global asset allocation, increasing exposure to quality assets in Asia and Europe, and using defensive assets like gold and short-term bonds to hedge against volatility [8]. - Establishing a dynamic policy risk monitoring system is recommended for institutional investors to assess the effects of U.S. fiscal negotiations and Federal Reserve policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce and silver prices reaching historical highs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On October 13, the domestic futures market saw the Shanghai gold main contract reach a new high of 928.88 yuan per gram, closing up 1.99% [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price also rose, breaking the $4070 per ounce mark [1]. - Since late September, international gold prices have increased significantly, with a weekly rise of 3.4% for gold and 4.47% for silver, leading to a gold-silver ratio drop to around 81 [3]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Holdings - As of September 23, the total gold holdings reported by the U.S. CFTC increased by 12,568 contracts to 528,789 contracts, with non-commercial net positions rising by 339 contracts to 266,749 contracts [3]. - Silver holdings also saw an increase, with total holdings up by 2,851 contracts to 165,805 contracts, and non-commercial net positions rising by 738 contracts to 52,276 contracts [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting economic stability and diminishing the long-term credit appeal of the U.S. dollar and assets, potentially leading global central banks and investors to increase gold holdings as a hedge against political risks [3]. - The first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, while initially bearish for gold prices, is overshadowed by ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other regional issues [4]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The average weekly price for 1 silver ingots was 10,975 yuan per kilogram, up 670 yuan from the previous week [4]. - COMEX silver futures saw a non-commercial long position increase of 695 contracts to 72,318 contracts, while short positions decreased by 43 contracts to 20,042 contracts [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - If the U.S. government shutdown persists, it may lead to a lack of clear economic data, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more accommodative monetary policy to counteract recession risks [4]. - Despite the recent price increases, potential corrections may occur if budget disagreements in the U.S. are resolved or if Federal Reserve officials issue hawkish statements [5]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains strong as they are viewed as valuable safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic uncertainties [6].