现货白银价格持续飙升，因市场趋紧，投资者纷纷向贵金属避险。周四，现货白银日内涨超2%，突破 50美元/盎司，这是部分机构自1993年以来的最高单日数据，超过了2011年的峰值。今年以来，白银价 格已经上涨了70%以上，超过了金价创纪录的涨幅。由于担心美国财政风险、股市过热以及美联储的独 立性受到威胁，投资者越来越多地寻找避险资产，这是其中的一部分。与此同时，伦敦关键市场上可自 由获得的白银短缺支撑了价格，同时也大幅推高了借入白银的成本。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and ongoing debt issues pose complex challenges to the global financial market, particularly affecting the stability of the dollar system [5][7] - The recent weak performance of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction reflects growing market concerns about U.S. fiscal health, especially after Moody's downgraded the U.S. AAA credit rating [1][5] - The aggressive fiscal policies proposed by Congress, including significant tax cuts and spending reductions, are projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating market confidence issues regarding the dollar [1][5] Group 2 - The rise of Bitcoin as a digital asset is becoming increasingly significant as an alternative investment, reflecting investor distrust in traditional financial systems and serving as a hedge against dollar depreciation and U.S. fiscal risks [3][7] - The weak dollar is driving funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like the yen, while also highlighting the potential for structural changes in the global financial system due to the growing importance of cryptocurrencies [3][7] - The low performance of the U.S. Treasury market, particularly in long-term bonds, indicates rising concerns about the safety of U.S. debt, which could lead to abnormal fluctuations in bond yields and impact global capital costs [5][7]

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. fiscal risks are accelerating, with the widening divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the USD/JPY exchange rate becoming a crucial market indicator [1] - The recent strength of the Japanese yen, despite rising Japanese long-term yields, is seen as evidence of reduced foreign participation in the U.S. Treasury market [4][6] - The bank believes that the sale of Japanese government bonds poses a greater issue for the U.S. Treasury market by making Japanese assets more attractive to local investors, further encouraging divestment from U.S. assets [6] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos, notes that the strong yen indicates a lack of foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, highlighting U.S. fiscal risks [1] - The bank argues that if Japan were truly facing fiscal concerns, the yen would weaken rather than strengthen, given Japan's positive net foreign asset position [4] - Following a weak U.S. Treasury auction, Saravelos observed a "very negative" reaction from market participants, indicating that the U.S. stock market may struggle to maintain resilience in this environment [7] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that the simultaneous weakening of the dollar is a clear signal that foreign buyers are resisting U.S. assets, reflecting long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal risks [7] - The core issue lies in foreign investors' unwillingness to fund the U.S. dual deficits (fiscal and trade) at current price levels [7] - Saravelos concludes that the solution to the current predicament is complex and ultimately lies with Congress rather than the Federal Reserve, suggesting that a depreciation of the dollar may be the final release valve for the U.S. dual deficit problem [7]