上海钢联稀贵金属资讯部贵金属分析师黄廷在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，2025年12月美国非农就业人数低于预期、而失业率意外降低，表明劳动 力市场并未出现快速恶化，进一步强化了市场对美国就业市场处于"低招聘、低裁员"状态的判断，也提升了经济有望避免陷入衰退的信心。在此背景下，市 场对美联储2026年1月降息的预期大幅减弱，几乎已完全定价"维持利率不变"的情形。 浙大城市学院副教授、中国城市专家智库委员会常务副秘书长林先平亦对记者指出，2025年12月美国非农数据呈现"弱增长+低失业"的矛盾特征，直接压制 了市场对美联储降息的预期。 转自：中国经营网 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 美国劳工部日前公布的数据显示，2025年12月，美国非农就业人数增加5万人，市场预期增加7万人；10—11月新增就业合计下修7.6万人。与此同时，12月 失业率降至4.4%，低于预期的4.5%。 黄廷对记者表示："考虑到近来美国宏观经济数据频繁修正，以及2026年美联储主席换届等因素，叠加特朗普政府或将干涉美联储政策独立性的担忧，我们 仍维持对美联储2026年将降息至少75个基点的预期。" 记者注意到，在非农数据发布后，黄金价格走强 ...

黄金、白银价格继续狂飙，再创新高。 具体而言，瞿瑞表示，当前贵金属上涨主要受以下几个因素影响：一是当前全球地缘政治风险居高不下 推升市场避险情绪，支撑贵金属价格上行。 二是美国财政风险仍将对金价构成主要支撑。当前美国债务风险持续上升，主因特朗普政府推行的经 济、财政政策将加重联邦政府债务负担，加之此前美国政府"停摆"也造成了一定损失，市场对美国财政 可持续性的质疑加深，叠加美债收益率波动加大，美元资产吸引力边际下降，推动资金向黄金等避险属 性突出的资产迁移。 多重因素驱动贵金属上涨 据新华社消息，美国《华尔街日报》11日援引匿名美国官员的话报道称，美国总统特朗普计划13日与政 府高级官员讨论美国针对伊朗的下一步措施，包括网络攻击、实施制裁和军事打击等，但预计特朗普不 会在会议上作出最终决定。 1月12日，沪银主力合约开盘大涨，截至发稿报20881元/千克，涨幅为14.07%，最高触及20950元/千 克，创下该合约历史新高；COMEX白银涨超6%，一度触及84.52美元/盎司；伦敦现货白银最高触及 84.589美元/盎司，涨幅超5%。 COMEX黄金触及4612.7美元/盎司，沪金主力合约早盘一度上涨3.07 ...

央广网北京12月22日消息（记者 宓迪）国际金银价格22日齐创历史新高。Wind数据显示，截至12月22 日15时37分，现货黄金（伦敦金现）报4413.269美元/盎司，日内涨1.73%，最高触及4420.470美元/盎司 创历史新高；COMEX黄金期货价格报4447.7美元/盎司，当日涨1.38%。 除黄金以外，截至15时37分，伦敦银现报68.928美元/盎司，日内涨幅达2.80%；COMEX白银报69.005美 元/盎司，日内涨幅达2.25%。 "本轮贵金属上涨源于投资者对美联储降息的强预期、全球地缘形势的不确定性以及美国通胀黏性等多 种复杂因素。"中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，尽管当前宏观环境对贵金属较为有利，但主要贵金属 价格已经处于高位，对普通投资者而言，应充分认识到当前参与贵金属投资的风险，明确自身风险偏好 后再参与交易。 记者关注到，黄金珠宝板块方面，22日多只个股收红：据Wind数据显示，截至收盘，西部黄金涨 5.78%；山东黄金、中金黄金涨超4%；四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金涨超3%。 永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，当前黄金股板块正处于"宏观政策利好+长期配置需求+基本面高 增"的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The political polarization, debt expansion, and fiscal imbalance in the United States are expected to continue impacting global markets, making the identification and management of U.S. political risks a crucial aspect of global asset allocation [1][8]. Group 1: U.S. Government Shutdown and Political Risks - The recent temporary funding bill signed by President Trump ended a 43-day government shutdown, but it highlights long-term vulnerabilities in the U.S. fiscal system and the reality of political polarization [4][5]. - The funding extension only lasts until January 30, 2026, indicating that the fiscal "cliff" has merely been postponed, and future budget negotiations may lead to another shutdown [4][5]. Group 2: Economic and Investment Implications - Political risks are increasingly transforming into investment risks, as fiscal uncertainty diminishes the predictability of the U.S. economy, particularly affecting key investment areas like infrastructure and research [5][7]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $35 trillion, exceeding 120% of GDP, which raises concerns about future debt ceiling negotiations and potential increases in treasury yields, impacting global financing costs [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The end of the shutdown has temporarily improved market sentiment, with stock markets and the dollar index rebounding, but historical trends suggest this optimism may not last [6][7]. - The U.S. fiscal issues represent a long-term structural risk, with rising interest payments potentially consuming a significant portion of federal revenue in the next decade [7][8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to enhance risk defense by optimizing global asset allocation, increasing exposure to quality assets in Asia and Europe, and using defensive assets like gold and short-term bonds to hedge against volatility [8]. - Establishing a dynamic policy risk monitoring system is recommended for institutional investors to assess the effects of U.S. fiscal negotiations and Federal Reserve policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to significant market volatility, with prices experiencing both sharp declines and rebounds, indicating a divided market sentiment [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - International gold prices surged past $4,000 before quickly retreating, with New York futures prices dropping while London spot prices increased [2]. - As of October 30, gold prices were oscillating around $3,950 after a peak of $4,381 earlier in the month, reflecting a nearly $600 increase in the first two weeks [6]. - The recent volatility is attributed to profit-taking after rapid price increases, which some analysts view as a normal market reaction [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Philippine central bank officials have suggested considering gold sales due to high current holdings, which stand at approximately 13% of their $109 billion international reserves [3]. - The former central bank governor indicated that an ideal gold reserve ratio should be between 8% and 12%, suggesting potential adjustments to current holdings [3]. - Analysts believe that the Philippines' gold sales would have a limited direct impact on the global gold market due to the country's small economic size, accounting for only 0.4% of the global economy [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The decline in gold prices is also linked to reduced market risk aversion, influenced by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts [7]. - Despite the recent volatility, analysts maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, supported by ongoing U.S. fiscal risks and strong central bank demand for gold [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks and institutional investors will continue to increase their gold allocations amid rising global uncertainties [8].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged significantly due to market tightening, with investors increasingly seeking refuge in precious metals [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Spot silver prices rose over 2% in a single day, surpassing $50 per ounce, marking the highest daily figure since 1993 and exceeding the peak in 2011 [1] - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by over 70%, outpacing the record rise in gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Concerns over U.S. fiscal risks, an overheated stock market, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to look for safe-haven assets [1] - A shortage of freely available silver in key London markets has supported prices and significantly increased the cost of borrowing silver [1]

Group 1 - The deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and ongoing debt issues pose complex challenges to the global financial market, particularly affecting the stability of the dollar system [5][7] - The recent weak performance of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction reflects growing market concerns about U.S. fiscal health, especially after Moody's downgraded the U.S. AAA credit rating [1][5] - The aggressive fiscal policies proposed by Congress, including significant tax cuts and spending reductions, are projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating market confidence issues regarding the dollar [1][5] Group 2 - The rise of Bitcoin as a digital asset is becoming increasingly significant as an alternative investment, reflecting investor distrust in traditional financial systems and serving as a hedge against dollar depreciation and U.S. fiscal risks [3][7] - The weak dollar is driving funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like the yen, while also highlighting the potential for structural changes in the global financial system due to the growing importance of cryptocurrencies [3][7] - The low performance of the U.S. Treasury market, particularly in long-term bonds, indicates rising concerns about the safety of U.S. debt, which could lead to abnormal fluctuations in bond yields and impact global capital costs [5][7]

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. fiscal risks are accelerating, with the widening divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the USD/JPY exchange rate becoming a crucial market indicator [1] - The recent strength of the Japanese yen, despite rising Japanese long-term yields, is seen as evidence of reduced foreign participation in the U.S. Treasury market [4][6] - The bank believes that the sale of Japanese government bonds poses a greater issue for the U.S. Treasury market by making Japanese assets more attractive to local investors, further encouraging divestment from U.S. assets [6] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos, notes that the strong yen indicates a lack of foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, highlighting U.S. fiscal risks [1] - The bank argues that if Japan were truly facing fiscal concerns, the yen would weaken rather than strengthen, given Japan's positive net foreign asset position [4] - Following a weak U.S. Treasury auction, Saravelos observed a "very negative" reaction from market participants, indicating that the U.S. stock market may struggle to maintain resilience in this environment [7] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that the simultaneous weakening of the dollar is a clear signal that foreign buyers are resisting U.S. assets, reflecting long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal risks [7] - The core issue lies in foreign investors' unwillingness to fund the U.S. dual deficits (fiscal and trade) at current price levels [7] - Saravelos concludes that the solution to the current predicament is complex and ultimately lies with Congress rather than the Federal Reserve, suggesting that a depreciation of the dollar may be the final release valve for the U.S. dual deficit problem [7]