在宋清辉看来，美国政治极化、债务膨胀与财政失衡的阴影，或将会继续笼罩全球市场。对投资者而言，识别并管理美国的政治风险，已成为全 球资产配置的新的一堂"必修课"。 著名经济学家 宋清辉 【沪港通锦囊】管理"美国风险"成投资必修课 美国总统特朗普近日在白宫签署国会通过的临时拨款法案，标志着持续43天、创下历史纪录的联邦政府停摆暂告一段落。虽然市场因此迎来短暂的「复工喜 讯」，但这场政治僵局暴露出美国财政体系的长期隐患与政治极化的现实困境，也再次提醒全球投资者，美国并非绝对安全的投资目的地，其政治与财政风 险正逐步成为全球资本配置中无法忽视的变数。 笔者认为，美国政府「重开」并不意味着风险消除。注意到，此次通过的《持续拨款与延期法案》仅将联邦政府资金延至2026年1月30日，属于典型的过渡 性拨款。换言之，美国财政的「悬崖」只是被延后了。届时若两党在预算、债务上限、社会福利等议题上再陷僵局，美国仍可能面临新一轮停摆。不难发 现，财政谈判短期化、政治化的趋势，已使得美国政府运作的不确定性大大上升，同时也暴露了美国制度性治理的弱点，其风险不容忽视。 美国政治风险正转成投资风险 对市场而言，这种政治风险正逐渐转化为投资风 ...

黄金价格近期出现高位跳水。国际金价突破4000美元大关后快速冲高回落，市场情绪也经历两极。30日 截至发稿，纽约黄金期货价格下挫，伦敦金现货却大幅上涨。金价连日上下剧烈波动，"黄金价格突然 暴跌"和"黄金价格突然反弹"同时站上热搜。 有亚洲央行官员近日表示，其国家或许应考虑抛售黄金。 目前，在菲律宾央行1090亿美元的国际储备总额中，黄金占比约为13%，高于亚洲多数国家的央行。 Diokno认为，理想的黄金储备比例应维持在8%至12%区间。 此外，现任菲律宾央行行长Eli Remolona在今年3月也曾表示，不看好黄金投资。 中国商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院研究员周密对中新社国是直通车表示，从菲律宾央行当前的黄金储 备调整举措来看，其本质是外汇储备管理策略的具体体现。核心逻辑应是判断当前黄金价格已处于相对 高位，未来存在下行可能性，故而通过减持部分黄金以降低潜在风险敞口。 东方金诚研究发展部副总监瞿瑞接受采访时表示，近期菲律宾比索对美元汇率贬值，抛售黄金可快速补 充外汇储备，增强其干预汇市的能力。这种操作与1997年亚洲金融危机期间各国抛售黄金稳定汇率的逻 辑相似，但当前背景更侧重主动管理而非被动应对危机。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged significantly due to market tightening, with investors increasingly seeking refuge in precious metals [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Spot silver prices rose over 2% in a single day, surpassing $50 per ounce, marking the highest daily figure since 1993 and exceeding the peak in 2011 [1] - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by over 70%, outpacing the record rise in gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Concerns over U.S. fiscal risks, an overheated stock market, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to look for safe-haven assets [1] - A shortage of freely available silver in key London markets has supported prices and significantly increased the cost of borrowing silver [1]

Group 1 - The deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and ongoing debt issues pose complex challenges to the global financial market, particularly affecting the stability of the dollar system [5][7] - The recent weak performance of the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction reflects growing market concerns about U.S. fiscal health, especially after Moody's downgraded the U.S. AAA credit rating [1][5] - The aggressive fiscal policies proposed by Congress, including significant tax cuts and spending reductions, are projected to increase federal debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating market confidence issues regarding the dollar [1][5] Group 2 - The rise of Bitcoin as a digital asset is becoming increasingly significant as an alternative investment, reflecting investor distrust in traditional financial systems and serving as a hedge against dollar depreciation and U.S. fiscal risks [3][7] - The weak dollar is driving funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like the yen, while also highlighting the potential for structural changes in the global financial system due to the growing importance of cryptocurrencies [3][7] - The low performance of the U.S. Treasury market, particularly in long-term bonds, indicates rising concerns about the safety of U.S. debt, which could lead to abnormal fluctuations in bond yields and impact global capital costs [5][7]

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. fiscal risks are accelerating, with the widening divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the USD/JPY exchange rate becoming a crucial market indicator [1] - The recent strength of the Japanese yen, despite rising Japanese long-term yields, is seen as evidence of reduced foreign participation in the U.S. Treasury market [4][6] - The bank believes that the sale of Japanese government bonds poses a greater issue for the U.S. Treasury market by making Japanese assets more attractive to local investors, further encouraging divestment from U.S. assets [6] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos, notes that the strong yen indicates a lack of foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, highlighting U.S. fiscal risks [1] - The bank argues that if Japan were truly facing fiscal concerns, the yen would weaken rather than strengthen, given Japan's positive net foreign asset position [4] - Following a weak U.S. Treasury auction, Saravelos observed a "very negative" reaction from market participants, indicating that the U.S. stock market may struggle to maintain resilience in this environment [7] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that the simultaneous weakening of the dollar is a clear signal that foreign buyers are resisting U.S. assets, reflecting long-standing concerns about U.S. fiscal risks [7] - The core issue lies in foreign investors' unwillingness to fund the U.S. dual deficits (fiscal and trade) at current price levels [7] - Saravelos concludes that the solution to the current predicament is complex and ultimately lies with Congress rather than the Federal Reserve, suggesting that a depreciation of the dollar may be the final release valve for the U.S. dual deficit problem [7]