Group 1 - Global trade and economic growth are expected to decline due to multiple uncertainties, with HSBC forecasting a slowdown in global goods and services trade growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, alongside economic growth rates of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively [1] - The "import rush" effect in the US has led to a contraction in economic growth, and weakening data on employment and real wage growth may pressure private consumption spending [2] - Asian economies are facing export and manufacturing investment pressures, with potential for significant slowdown in export growth if US tariffs are reinstated, while expansionary macro policies may provide some buffer [3] Group 2 - US core inflation is expected to remain sticky, influenced by delayed tariff effects and reduced immigration, with forecasts indicating inflation will stay above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, which could lead to a series of economic repercussions [3] - The reliance on private consumption recovery is becoming increasingly important for economic growth in Asia as both exports and investments face challenges [3]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 06 月 12 日 美国核心 CPI 会连续走低吗？ 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 基数走弱、关税冲击的双重背景下，美国 5 月核心 CPI 反而连续第三 个月持平，主要拖累为与能源价格关联度较高的耐用品分项以及房租涨幅 降温，市场对美联储年内降息预期小幅升温带动美元指数短时回落。据当 地时间 6 月 11 日公布的最新数据，美国 5 月 CPI（经季节调整，下同）、 核心 CPI 同比分别小幅上行 0.1 个百分点至 2.4%、持平于 2.8%，当月环比 涨幅分别为 0.08%和 0.13%。美联储 6 月 FOMC 会议召开在即，在基数逐 步走低、高额关税冲击的双重背景下，核心 CPI 非但没有大幅反弹反而连 续三个月持平，加之特朗普的低利率主张，令市场对美联储年内的降息预 期再度升温，美元指数和美债收益率当即大幅下行。但从结构来看，拖累 核心 CPI 涨幅的核心耐用消费品分项或主要受能源价格持续走弱的渗透性 影响，非耐用品与核心服务价格稳定增长，在特朗普"大而美法案"与原 油价格回升的共同支撑下，未来核心通胀展现高位黏性的概率仍然不低。 证 券 核心 CPI 连续三 ...