Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market showed an overall volatile adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark during the session. Nearly 5000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets declined, and the trading volume on the day was 2.13 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.11% [1]. - Due to the potential for the US-Iran conflict to last longer than expected, Middle Eastern oil has entered a state of passive production cuts due to limited storage capacity, coupled with rising shipping costs, leading to a significant increase in the oil price center. The imbalance between supply and demand in the commodity market may lead to a tightening of the US dollar money supply, an increase in the US dollar index, a decline in most currency exchange rates, and a general rise in bond market yields [1]. - The US non-farm payrolls data for February decreased by 92,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 55,000, and the non-farm payrolls data for the previous few months was also significantly revised downward, leading to a significant increase in market concerns about the US entering stagflation, which has significantly impacted the valuations of global technology stocks [1]. - The release of the article "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" has triggered market concerns about AI squeezing out traditional economies. The software, services, finance, and other sub - sectors involved in the article are the areas where the Chinese and US stock markets have declined recently, and the market reaction has been intense. This topic may continue to ferment and amplify market volatility before the policy side clearly shifts to focus on social fairness after AI implementation [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. The People's Bank of China conducted 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 19, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, the same as the previous rate. According to qeubee statistics, there were 24.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases due in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 11.5 billion yuan [1]. - The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. In the short term, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment state, with long - term interest rates under more pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital side [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market was volatile and adjusted, with most stocks falling. The decline was affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US non - farm payrolls data, and concerns about AI squeezing out traditional economies. The market outlook is volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital side showed certain changes. The bond market is expected to be in a volatile adjustment state in the short term, with long - term interest rates under more pressure [1][2]. Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 19, 2026, compared with March 18, 2026, IH fell 2.19% (from 2,958.6 to 2,893.8), IF fell 3.21% (from 4,651.4 to 4,502.2), IC fell 5.13% (from 8,086.0 to 7,671.0), and IM fell 1.94% (from 8,080.4 to 7,923.8) [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.53% (from 2,961.4 to 2,916.2), the CSI 300 Index fell 1.61% (from 4,658.3 to 4,583.3), the CSI 500 Index fell 2.71% (from 8,096.4 to 7,877.1), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 2.31% (from 8,096.6 to 7,909.2) [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose 0.03% (from 102.50 to 102.53), TF rose 0.06% (from 106.00 to 106.06), T rose 0.06% (from 108.27 to 108.33), and TL rose 0.08% (from 110.98 to 111.07) [3]. Market News - The Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larry Janani, was killed in an Israeli attack. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China is shocked by this and has always opposed the use of force in international relations, and the killing of Iranian national leaders and attacks on civilian targets are unacceptable [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of various stock index futures [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][15][16][18][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts present the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between other major currencies [21][22][23][25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market had fully priced in the Fed's rate cut, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. There are also uncertainties such as stagflation, hard landing, and geopolitical issues, which may cause the market sentiment to turn cautious [3][8]. - Fundamentally, the theoretical output on the supply - side has increased slightly, but the actual supply of aluminum ingots is expected to be limited due to the high proportion of molten aluminum. Consumption continues to improve marginally, and demand is expected to pick up rapidly due to pre - holiday stocking [3][8]. - Considering the adjustment of macro - sentiment and the favorable supply - demand outlook, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2701 | 2676 | - 25.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21060 | 20790 | - 270.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | | | LME Spot Premium | 6.35 | 5.43 | - 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 485275 | 513900 | 28625.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 72469 | 71959 | - 510.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20818 | 20872 | 54.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 40 | - 20 | 20.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 20762 | 20828 | 66.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 56 | 44 | - 12.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.5 | 63.8 | 1.3 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16383.85 | 16301.97 | - 81.9 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 4434.15 | 4570.03 | 135.9 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20872 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 20828 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. US economic data shows a slowdown in some indicators [6]. - In China, in August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year [6]. - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 63.8 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 13.5 tons [3][7][8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The market expects two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech increased uncertainty. China's economic data in August continued the pattern of overall slowdown with structural highlights [3][8]. - On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, mainly through capacity replacement. Due to the ramping - up of some previously replaced capacities, production has slightly increased recently. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum processing operating rate continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to high aluminum prices. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased slightly [3][8]. - Considering the macro and fundamental factors, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - The preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is about 2.15 million units, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [9]. - The US Department of Commerce plans to include more products derived from steel and aluminum products in the tariff scope, and will consider requests for additional tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [9]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, etc., to show the market situation of aluminum [10][11][16].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura has revised its year-end forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate from 140 to 137.50, influenced by concerns over U.S. President Trump's tariffs and worries regarding U.S. stagflation and the credibility of U.S. assets [1] Group 1 - Nomura's adjustment reflects a significant change in outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] - The revision is attributed to increasing concerns about tariffs imposed by the U.S. government [1] - There are growing worries about stagflation in the U.S. economy and the impact on the credibility of U.S. assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura has revised its year-end forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate from 140 to 137.50 due to concerns over U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump and increasing worries about U.S. stagflation and asset credibility [1] Group 1 - Nomura's strategists Yujiro Goto and Jin Moteki are responsible for the report [1] - The adjustment in the forecast reflects a significant shift in market sentiment regarding the U.S. economy [1] - The concerns about U.S. tariffs and stagflation are key factors influencing the revised exchange rate prediction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to face downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, high Russian exports, trade wars, and economic growth concerns, but short - term long positions are recommended considering factors like strategic reserve purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][6] - For steel products, the short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly due to potential news of crude steel production cuts and steel exports [7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 due to supply disruptions, unmet demand during the peak season, and macro uncertainties [11] - It is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt in the near term considering supply and demand changes and geopolitical factors affecting crude oil [12][14] - For PP, the PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly due to supply and demand situations [15] - For plastic, it is recommended to short the plastic 05 basis at high levels as it is expected to decline [16][17] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with limited room for further significant decline [18] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the 2505 contract operating between 750 - 810 yuan/ton [19] - Coking coal is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] - Urea futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [22] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 13.8 barrels per day in April. The US may intercept Iranian oil tankers. The US oil rig count decreased by 2 last week, and US crude production increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 13.574 million barrels per day in the week of March 21 [3] - Demand: US refinery operating rates rose by 0.1 percentage points to 87.0%. US crude inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. China's domestic crude processing volume has been declining slightly since March [3] - Outlook: The IEA raised the expected crude surplus, indicating downward pressure, but short - term long positions are recommended [3][6] Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Market Performance: The black series opened lower and then strengthened. The closing price of finished products moved slightly higher [7] - Supply and Demand: The demand for ribbed bars is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coils continue to resume production, and demand is rising, with good inventory reduction. Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the space for further increase is limited [7] - Outlook: Short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly [7] Copper - Supply: In February 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons, and it also decreased significantly month - on - month [11] - Demand: The peak season demand in March and April did not meet expectations, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low [11] - Outlook: Prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 [11] Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 26.7%, and the expected production in March increased by 13.2% month - on - month [12] - Demand: The downstream industries of asphalt are gradually resuming work, but the operating rate is still low. The actual demand is yet to recover [12][14] - Outlook: Long positions are recommended in the near term [14] PP - Supply: PP enterprise operating rates decreased to around 81%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn products decreased to around 29%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15] - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15] - Outlook: The PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly [15] Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate decreased to around 88%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are short - term maintenance devices [16] - Demand: PE downstream operating rates are rising, but they are still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar. New orders are slow to follow up [16][17] - Outlook: It is expected to decline, and shorting the plastic 05 basis at high levels is recommended [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 79.81%. There are a small number of new maintenance devices, and spring maintenance has not started on a large scale [18] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies. Social inventory is still high [18] - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18] Iron Ore - Supply: Supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and port inventories are rising slightly [19] - Demand: Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the demand space is limited [19] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton for the 2505 contract [19] Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic mine operations have increased significantly, and imported coal resources are abundant [21] - Demand: Downstream steel and coking enterprises' operations are rising, but overseas resource prices are under pressure [21] - Outlook: It is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] Urea - Supply: Upstream maintenance is progressing steadily, and the daily output is expected to remain above 190,000 tons this week [22] - Demand: Agricultural demand is increasing, and compound fertilizer factories are operating as before [22] - Outlook: Futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and cautious about chasing up [22]