野村将美元兑日元年底预测从140下调至137.50，受美国总统特朗普加征关税及对美国滞涨和美国资产 信誉的担忧加剧影响。 ...

野村下调美元兑日元年底预测至137.5 智通财经4月21日电，Yujiro Goto、Jin Moteki等野村策略师在一份报告中写道，将美元兑日元年底预测 从140下调至137.50，受美国总统特朗普加征关税及对美国滞涨和美国资产信誉的担忧加剧影响。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to face downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, high Russian exports, trade wars, and economic growth concerns, but short - term long positions are recommended considering factors like strategic reserve purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][6] - For steel products, the short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly due to potential news of crude steel production cuts and steel exports [7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 due to supply disruptions, unmet demand during the peak season, and macro uncertainties [11] - It is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt in the near term considering supply and demand changes and geopolitical factors affecting crude oil [12][14] - For PP, the PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly due to supply and demand situations [15] - For plastic, it is recommended to short the plastic 05 basis at high levels as it is expected to decline [16][17] - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level with limited room for further significant decline [18] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the 2505 contract operating between 750 - 810 yuan/ton [19] - Coking coal is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] - Urea futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [22] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 13.8 barrels per day in April. The US may intercept Iranian oil tankers. The US oil rig count decreased by 2 last week, and US crude production increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 13.574 million barrels per day in the week of March 21 [3] - Demand: US refinery operating rates rose by 0.1 percentage points to 87.0%. US crude inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. China's domestic crude processing volume has been declining slightly since March [3] - Outlook: The IEA raised the expected crude surplus, indicating downward pressure, but short - term long positions are recommended [3][6] Steel Products (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Market Performance: The black series opened lower and then strengthened. The closing price of finished products moved slightly higher [7] - Supply and Demand: The demand for ribbed bars is weak, and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coils continue to resume production, and demand is rising, with good inventory reduction. Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the space for further increase is limited [7] - Outlook: Short - term pressure on finished products increases, but they are expected to fluctuate mainly [7] Copper - Supply: In February 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons, and it also decreased significantly month - on - month [11] - Demand: The peak season demand in March and April did not meet expectations, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low [11] - Outlook: Prices are expected to fluctuate between 79000 - 82000 [11] Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 26.7%, and the expected production in March increased by 13.2% month - on - month [12] - Demand: The downstream industries of asphalt are gradually resuming work, but the operating rate is still low. The actual demand is yet to recover [12][14] - Outlook: Long positions are recommended in the near term [14] PP - Supply: PP enterprise operating rates decreased to around 81%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn products decreased to around 29%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15] - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15] - Outlook: The PP05 contract is recommended to be observed mainly [15] Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate decreased to around 88%. New production capacity was put into operation, and there are short - term maintenance devices [16] - Demand: PE downstream operating rates are rising, but they are still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar. New orders are slow to follow up [16][17] - Outlook: It is expected to decline, and shorting the plastic 05 basis at high levels is recommended [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 79.81%. There are a small number of new maintenance devices, and spring maintenance has not started on a large scale [18] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies. Social inventory is still high [18] - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [18] Iron Ore - Supply: Supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and port inventories are rising slightly [19] - Demand: Iron - making water increase is slowing, and the demand space is limited [19] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton for the 2505 contract [19] Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic mine operations have increased significantly, and imported coal resources are abundant [21] - Demand: Downstream steel and coking enterprises' operations are rising, but overseas resource prices are under pressure [21] - Outlook: It is expected to have a short - term weak oscillation [21] Urea - Supply: Upstream maintenance is progressing steadily, and the daily output is expected to remain above 190,000 tons this week [22] - Demand: Agricultural demand is increasing, and compound fertilizer factories are operating as before [22] - Outlook: Futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and cautious about chasing up [22]