报告核心观点 - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impact on the futures market [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of factors such as macro - policies, trade wars, geopolitical situations, and official speeches on the futures market [2] 本周重点关注 - On September 1st at 9:45, Markit will release China's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.5, same as the previous value [2][3] - On September 3rd, a grand military parade will be held in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [2][9] - On September 4th at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions [2][12] - On September 5th at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non - farm payroll report [2][20] 本周热点前瞻 September 1st - China's August SPGI Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures prices [3] - Eurozone's July unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.2%, same as the previous value [4] September 2nd - Eurozone's August CPI preliminary value: Expected eurozone August harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is 2.0%, same as the previous value [5] - US August ISM Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] September 3rd - Military parade in Beijing to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War, lasting about 70 minutes [9] - US July factory orders: If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] September 4th - China's August SPGI Services PMI and Composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 52.5, previous value was 52.6 [10] - Federal Reserve Beige Book of Economic Conditions: Attention should be paid to its content and impact on related futures prices [12] - August下旬 circulation area important production material market prices: Include 9 categories and 50 products [13] - Eurozone's July retail sales: Expected monthly rate is 0.2%, previous value was 0.3% [14] - US August ADP employment change: If lower than the previous value, it will suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [15] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 30th: If slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices and slightly boost other industrial product futures prices [16] - US August ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI: If slightly higher than the previous value, it will slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] September 5th - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 29th: If the inventory continues to decline, it will boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [18] - US August non - farm payroll report: If the seasonally adjusted new non - farm employment is slightly higher than the previous value but the unemployment rate is slightly higher, it will strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, slightly boost non - gold and non - silver commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [20] September 7th - China's August foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves: July foreign exchange reserves were $3292.235 billion, and gold reserves were 73.96 million ounces [21]

This Week's Key Focus - On August 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations [2][3] - On August 27, China's National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July [2][10] - On August 28, the US Department of Commerce will announce the revised value of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2025 [2][15] - On August 29, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for July [2][19] - On August 31, China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August [2][22] - From August 31 to September 1, the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin [2][23] This Week's Hotspot Preview August 25 - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan, a sixth consecutive month of increased renewal [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of customs in safeguarding national security and promoting high - quality development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period [4] - The US will announce July new home sales. If the annualized total is slightly lower than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but mildly help the rise of gold and silver futures [5] August 26 - The State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences, one on the achievements of high - quality energy development during the 14th Five - Year Plan period and the other on the 25th China International Investment and Trade Fair [7] - The US will announce the preliminary value of July durable goods orders. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [8] - The US will announce the August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [9] August 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size for July and January - July. From January to June, the year - on - year profit decreased by 1.8%, and in June, it decreased by 4.3% year - on - year [10] - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference [11] - Germany will announce the September Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, with an expected value of - 22 and a previous value of - 21.5 [12] - The Eurozone will announce the August economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index. If both are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly help the prices of related industrial product futures rise [13] - EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 22. If the inventory continues to decline, it will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] August 28 - The US will announce the revised value of the second - quarter GDP for 2025, with an expected annualized quarterly rate of 3.0% [15] - The US will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly suppress the rise of commodity futures except for gold and silver futures but mildly help the prices of gold and silver futures rise [16] - The US will announce the seasonally adjusted pending home sales index for July. If the monthly rate is higher than the previous value, it will help the prices of non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress the prices of gold and silver futures [17] August 29 - The US will announce personal spending and personal income for July. If the monthly rates are slightly higher than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures but mildly help the rise of industrial product futures except for gold and silver futures [18] - The US will announce the PCE price index for July, with an expected annual rate of 2.6% and an expected core annual rate of 2.9% [19] - The US will announce the August Chicago PMI. If it is slightly higher than the previous value, it will help the rise of non - ferrous metal futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [20] August 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI for August. If both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are slightly lower than the previous values, it will mildly suppress the rise of stock index futures and commodity futures prices [22] - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will be held in Tianjin, and President Xi Jinping will participate in relevant activities and deliver a keynote speech [23]

This Week's Key Focus - On July 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves for June [2][3] - On July 8, the Dalian Commodity Exchange will officially list and trade pure benzene futures and options [2][8] - On July 8, the US tariff suspension period expires [2][11] - On July 9 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's CPI and PPI for June [2][13] - On July 10 at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [2][16] - From July 10 - 17 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce the financial statistics report, the incremental statistics report of social financing scale, and the stock statistics report of social financing scale for June [2][17] - On July 12 at 00:00, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release the USDA monthly supply - demand report [2][21] This Week's Hotspot Preview July 7 - Expected June foreign exchange reserves are $3.3 trillion, compared to $3.285 trillion in May. Gold reserves in May were 73.83 million ounces [3] - The "Procedural Trading Management Implementation Rules" of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges come into effect. The rules define high - frequency trading standards and make differentiated regulatory arrangements [4] - Expected Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for July is 1.2, with a previous value of 0.2 [5] - Expected Eurozone retail sales monthly rate for May is - 0.5%, with a previous value of 0.1%; the annual rate is expected to be 1.4%, with a previous value of 2.3% [7] July 8 - Pure benzene futures will be listed for trading starting at 9:00 am, and pure benzene options starting at 21:00. The daily price limit for pure benzene futures is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and 14% for new contracts on the first listing day. The contract margin is 8% of the contract value, and the option position limit is 2,000 lots [8] - Expected Australian cash rate on July 8 is 3.60%, with a previous value of 3.85%. The RBA governor will hold a monetary policy press conference [9] - Expected Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for July is 0, with a previous value of 0.3 [10] - The US tariff suspension period expires [11] July 9 - The US EIA will release its monthly short - term energy outlook report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [12] - Predicted June CPI year - on - year growth is 0%, compared to a decline of 0.1% previously; predicted June PPI year - on - year decline is 3.1%, compared to a decline of 3.3% previously. If the predictions hold, it will slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures [13] - The US EIA will announce the change in crude oil inventories for the week ending July 4. A continued increase will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [15] July 10 - The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which may impact relevant futures prices [16] - Expected June M2 year - on - year growth is 8.2%, compared to 7.9% previously; expected new RMB loans in June are 2 trillion yuan, compared to 620 billion yuan previously; expected incremental social financing scale in June is 3.85 trillion yuan, compared to 2.287 trillion yuan previously. Higher values may boost commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [17] July 11 - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [18] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products, which may impact relevant agricultural product futures prices [19] - Expected number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5 is 235,000, compared to 233,000 previously. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [20] July 12 - The USDA will release its monthly supply - demand report, which may impact relevant agricultural product futures prices [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the current week (June 16 - 20, 2025) and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 6月16日 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May. Forecasts include 3.9% y/y growth in cumulative urban fixed - asset investment from January to May (4.0% in January - April), 5.9% y/y growth in industrial added value of large - scale industries in May (6.1% in April), 5.0% y/y growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in May (5.1% in April), and a surveyed unemployment rate of 5.1% in May (same as April). Lower - than - previous growth rates may suppress the rise of stock index and commodity futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [4]. - The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation [5]. - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report between 18:00 - 21:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [7]. 6月17日 - The US Department of Commerce will release US retail sales for May at 20:30. The expected monthly rate of retail sales is - 0.7% (0.1% previously), and the expected monthly rate of core retail sales is 0.3% (0.1% previously). A lower - than - previous monthly rate of retail sales may help the rise of gold and silver futures but suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [8]. - The Federal Reserve will release US industrial output for May at 21:15. The expected monthly rate of industrial output is 0.1% (0% previously). A slightly higher - than - previous monthly rate may slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals futures but slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [9]. - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report at 16:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [11]. 6月18日 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18 - 19. The theme is "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation, and High - Quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial regulatory authorities will announce several major financial policies during the forum [12]. - The US Department of Commerce will release data on new home starts and building permits for May at 20:30. The expected annualized total of new home starts is 1.36 million units (1.361 million previously), and the expected initial annualized total of building permits is 1.43 million units (1.422 million previously) [13]. - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 at 20:30. The expected number is 245,000 (248,000 previously). A slightly lower - than - previous number may slightly suppress the rise of gold and silver futures and slightly help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [15]. - The EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 22:30. A continued decrease in inventories may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [16]. 6月19日 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. It is expected that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged. Attention should be paid to the economic outlook summary and Powell's speech and their impact on relevant futures prices [17]. - The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 16:30, expected to keep the policy rate at 0.25% [18]. - The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% [19]. 6月20日 - The People's Bank of China will authorize the National Inter - bank Funding Center to announce the loan prime rate (LPR) for June 2025 at 09:00. The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% (unchanged from the previous value), and the expected 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50% (unchanged from the previous value). If unchanged, the impact on commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures is basically neutral [20]. - Eurostat will release the preliminary consumer confidence index for the eurozone in June at 22:00. The expected preliminary value for May is - 14.05 (- 15.2 previously) [21].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including economic data releases, policy meetings, and international events [2]. - The outcomes of these events, such as economic data deviations from expectations, can influence different types of futures prices, including commodity, treasury bond, and stock index futures [4][7]. Key Events and Their Impacts June 9 - **China-US Economic and Trade Consultation**: Deputy Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The results may affect relevant futures prices [3]. - **China's May CPI and PPI**: Expected CPI to decline by 0.2% year-on-year (previous: +0.1%), and PPI to decline by 3.2% year-on-year (previous: -2.7%). A lower CPI and larger PPI decline may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures [4]. - **China's May Import and Export Data**: Expected export growth of 5% year-on-year (previous: 8.1%) and import decline of 0.9% year-on-year (previous: -0.2%). Lower growth rates may suppress commodity and stock index futures but benefit treasury bond futures [7]. June 10 - **Press Conference on Livelihood Policies**: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies to improve people's livelihood. The content may impact the futures market [8]. June 11 - **EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report**: The US Energy Information Administration will release the report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [9]. - **US May CPI**: Expected unadjusted CPI to rise 2.5% year-on-year (previous: 2.3%) and 0.3% month-on-month (previous: 0.2%); core CPI to rise 2.9% year-on-year (previous: 2.8%) and 0.2% month-on-month (previous: 0.2%). Higher values may delay the Fed's first rate cut and slightly boost commodity futures prices [10]. June 12 - **China's May Financial Data**: Expected social financing scale increment of 2280 billion yuan (previous: 1159.1 billion yuan), new RMB loans of 830 billion yuan (previous: 280 billion yuan), and M2 balance growth of 8.1% year-on-year (previous: 8.0%). Higher values may benefit stock index, commodity, and treasury bond futures [11]. - **Agricultural Products Supply and Demand Report**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release a report on agricultural products, which may affect relevant agricultural futures prices [12]. - **IEA Monthly Crude Oil Market Report**: The International Energy Agency will release the report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13]. - **US May PPI**: Expected PPI annual rate of 2.7% (previous: 2.4%), monthly rate of 0.2% (previous: -0.5%); core PPI annual rate of 3.3% (previous: 3.1%). Higher values may slightly boost industrial product futures prices [14]. - **US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims**: Expected 250,000 (previous: 247,000). A higher number may slightly boost gold and silver futures prices and suppress other industrial product futures prices [15]. - **US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change**: If inventory continues to increase, it may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16]. June 13 - **Fed's Quarterly Financial Account Report**: The Fed will release the report, which may affect relevant futures prices [17]. - **USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report**: The US Department of Agriculture will release the report, which may affect relevant agricultural futures prices [18]. June 14 - **China's June Early Circulation Production Material Prices**: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 50 products in 9 categories [19]. - **US June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index**: Expected initial value of 53 (previous: 52.2). A higher value may suppress gold and silver futures prices and benefit other commodity futures prices [20]. June 15 - 17 - **G7 Summit**: The G7 Summit will be held in Canada, with President Trump attending. The meeting's content may impact the futures market [22].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, focusing on significant events and data releases that may impact the futures market, including Sino-US economic and trade talks, various economic data from the US and other countries, and reports on agricultural products and crude oil markets [2][3] Key Events and Data Releases May 12 - Sino-US economic and trade talks will release a joint statement. The talks were constructive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [3] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will release the monthly report on the supply and demand situation of agricultural products, which may affect related agricultural futures prices [7] May 13 - The USDA will release its monthly supply and demand report, which may impact related agricultural futures prices [8] - The ZEW will announce Germany's May economic sentiment index, with an expected value of 6.9 and a previous value of -14 [9] - The US Department of Labor will release the US April CPI. The expected unadjusted CPI annual rate is 2.4%, and the unadjusted core CPI annual rate is 2.8% [10] May 14 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the first ten days of May [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending May 9. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [12] - OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may affect crude oil and related commodity futures prices [13] May 15 - The People's Bank of China will release April financial statistics and social financing scale data. The expected new RMB loans are 765 billion yuan, and the expected growth rate of M2 is 7.5% [15] - The IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, which may impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [16] - The EU will announce the revised value of the Eurozone's Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly rate is 1.2% [17] - The US Department of Commerce will release April retail sales. The expected monthly rate is 0.1%, and the core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% [18] - The US Department of Labor will release April PPI. The expected annual rate is 2.8%, and the core PPI annual rate is 3.4% [19] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10, with an expected value of 225,000 [20] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give an opening speech and speak on the Fed's monetary policy assessment [21] - The Federal Reserve will release US April industrial output. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% [22] - The National Energy Administration will release April全社会用电量 data, which may affect related futures prices [23] May 16 - Japan's Cabinet Office will announce the preliminary value of Q1 GDP. The expected seasonally adjusted quarterly rate is -0.1%, and the annualized quarterly rate is -0.2% [24] - The US will release April building permits and new housing starts. The expected annualized total of building permits is 1.368 million, and new housing starts is 1.45 million [25] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the US May consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 53 [26]