格隆汇2月21日｜周五（2月20日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.53个基点，报4.0826%， 北京时间21:30披露美国GDP和美联储青睐的PCE通胀数据时刷新日低至4.0520%， 美国最高法院宣判特 朗普关税政策违法之际拉升至4.1018%刷新日高，本周（四个交易日）累计上涨3.43个基点。两年期美 债收益率涨2.07个基点，报3.4781%，日内交投于3.4318%-3.4949%区间，也在前述两个关键的时间节点 先后刷新日低和日高，本周累涨7.04个基点。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report] - Dollar Index Drops, Non-ferrous Sector Oscillates Higher [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling, Lin Jingyan Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The dollar index has declined, leading to an oscillating upward trend in the non-ferrous sector [1] - For copper, short - term price pressure exists due to the US delaying new tariffs on key mineral imports, but the decline is limited due to the falling dollar index and improved market sentiment [8] - For zinc, the fundamental contradictions are insufficient, and its price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [95] - For nickel and stainless steel, due to factors such as potential supply shortages in Indonesia and shipping incidents in the Philippines, nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level, with attention to potential risks such as short - squeeze in near - month contracts [198][199] Group 4: Summary by Section 4.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The dollar index is at 97.5, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a weekly decline of 1.88%, and an annual decline of 0.78%. The exchange rate CNH is 6.9642, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, and an annual decline of 0.35% [6] - Most non - ferrous metals show varying degrees of price changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the price of lithium carbonate has a significant increase, with a daily increase of 7.55%, a weekly increase of 24.16%, and an annual increase of 49.30% [6] 4.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: China's 2025 GDP growth meets expectations, and recent domestic policies may improve domestic demand. The US has some policy stances that affect market risk appetite, and the dollar index is under pressure [8] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreases, the port inventory slightly increases, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 is set at 0 [8] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore slightly expands, while the profit of those using long - term contracts increases [8] - **Demand End**: The downstream demand is released as the copper price falls, and the operating rate of refined copper rods increases [8] - **Inventory**: Global copper inventories increase significantly [8] - **Investment View**: The copper price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 4.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The macro - sentiment is complex, with geopolitical disturbances and central bank policy expectations affecting the market [95] - **Raw Material End**: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, the imported processing fee continues to decline, and the supply of zinc ore may be affected by geopolitical risks [95] - **Smelting End**: The domestic zinc ingot production continues to shrink, and the average loss per ton of zinc for smelters narrows slightly [95] - **Demand End**: The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, and the procurement is mainly for rigid needs [95] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and LME inventory of zinc ingots both show a slight increase [95] - **Investment View**: The zinc price is mainly affected by the sector's trend, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [95] 4.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Macro Factors**: The US PCE inflation data meets expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged. The Chinese central bank may implement further policies. Indonesia's policies increase concerns about nickel supply [198][199] - **Raw Material End**: The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is firm, the rainfall in the Philippine production area affects transportation, and the domestic port inventory of nickel ore is decreasing [198][199] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel and nickel - iron may increase, and the production of stainless steel is expected to rise in January [198][199] - **Demand End**: The social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The demand for new energy is affected by the production schedule of precursor enterprises [198][199] - **Inventory**: Global nickel inventories are increasing [198] - **Investment View**: Nickel prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and stainless steel prices will run at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances and potential short - squeeze risks [198][199]

Group 1 - The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data from the US aligns with market expectations, indicating no substantial impact on the current monetary policy framework [1] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, with core PCE also at 2.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with market forecasts [1] - Energy prices have temporarily increased, pushing short-term inflation readings higher, while food prices remain stable, indicating a lack of substantial change in the inflation structure [1] Group 2 - The third quarter GDP final value shows an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, the fastest in nearly two years, with initial jobless claims remaining low, reinforcing the view that the economy has not significantly cooled [2] - There is a notable imbalance in growth dynamics, with high-income groups and large enterprises being the main support for consumption and investment, while middle and low-income households face more significant constraints [2] - Market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path is stabilizing, with investors generally accepting the view of maintaining high short-term interest rates while continuing to digest potential rate cut space in the medium term [2] Group 3 - Uncertainty in policy due to Trump's fluctuating statements on trade, fiscal issues, and central bank independence has become a variable that the market cannot ignore, increasing volatility and interest in non-dollar assets [3] - Recent volatility in the Japanese bond market has brought the "widow trade" back into focus, with discussions around yen financing arbitrage and global interest rate linkage risks [3] - The November PCE inflation data has not shaken the Federal Reserve's short-term policy anchor, with economic resilience and persistent inflation leading to a continued wait-and-see approach in monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.2747% before the release of key inflation data [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 2.35 basis points, reaching 3.6079%, and showed accelerated growth after 8:00 PM [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 1.64 basis points, settling at 4.8457% [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread narrowed by 1.548 basis points, now at +63.881 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 1.90 basis points to 1.8804% after the auction results were released [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 3.53 basis points to 0.9974%, while the 30-year TIPS yield saw a minor rise of 0.24 basis points to 2.5838% [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.66%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% for the week [2] - European indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.09%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.14%, and France's CAC 40 down 1.23% [2] Economic Indicators - Attention will shift to U.S. GDP data, PCE inflation data, and consumer confidence index, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3] - The PCE inflation data for November is set to be released, which is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve [3] - The unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased, raising the importance of the upcoming inflation data [3] Federal Reserve Predictions - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts to June and September, citing that inflation trends will be crucial for determining interest rate policies [4] - The third-quarter GDP revision data is expected to be closely watched, as the initial growth rate of 4.3% exceeded market expectations [4] Commodity Market - Oil prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, with WTI crude up 0.54% to $59.44 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.25% to $64.13 per barrel [5] - Geopolitical tensions in Iran continue to influence oil prices, with concerns about potential supply disruptions [5] - Gold and silver prices have increased, with COMEX gold futures up 2.18% to $4588.40 per ounce and silver futures up 11.69% to $88.09 per ounce [6] European Economic Outlook - The Eurogroup finance ministers' meeting is scheduled, with a focus on fiscal stimulus policies, particularly from Germany [7] - The European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released, and there is speculation about future interest rate adjustments [7] UK Economic Data - Upcoming economic reports include the November employment report, consumer price index, and retail sales data [8] - The Bank of England recently lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, the smallest since July of the previous year, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, the lowest since May 2025, indicating a slow decline in inflation [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching November figures and reflecting the lowest levels since March 2021 [2][4] - The data for December 2025 is considered reliable and complete, suggesting a consistent downward trend in inflation since September 2025, despite previous data collection issues in November [2] Inflation Components - The decrease in inflation is primarily attributed to zero growth in core goods prices, particularly new vehicles, used cars, and trucks, indicating a milder-than-expected impact from tariffs [3] - Core services prices rose by 0.3%, with housing costs, which have a significant weight in the CPI, increasing by 0.4%, the largest rise in four months, and a year-on-year increase from 3.0% to 3.2% [3] - The rental market showed a significant decline, with a 0.31% drop in rents in October 2025, the largest in 15 years, driven by increased supply and reduced demand [3] Employment and Economic Impact - Non-farm employment in the U.S. increased by 584,000 in 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.0% to 4.4% [6] - Real average weekly earnings for American workers decreased by 0.3% in December 2025, which, while beneficial for controlling inflation, negatively impacts consumer spending and economic growth [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and government policies may improve employment and income growth, but the effects of these cuts typically take 3 to 6 months to materialize [7] - The likelihood of further rate cuts in the first quarter remains low unless there is significant deterioration in employment or a notable drop in inflation, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining current rates in January [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities, indicating a trend of rising interest rates in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3.69 basis points to 4.1351%, with a cumulative increase of 12.18 basis points for the week [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.77 basis points to 3.5603%, accumulating a rise of 7.10 basis points for the week [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 3.41 basis points, reaching 4.7888% [1] - The 10-year TIPS yield rose by 3.64 basis points to 1.8428% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 1.44 basis points to 1.0566% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield rose by 3.59 basis points to 2.5663% [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the stability of spot gold prices amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and the anticipation of upcoming PCE inflation data, which is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [2][3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Spot gold closed slightly up by 0.13% at $4208.70 per ounce, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][21]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.104%, which, along with a rise in real yields, limited gold's price increase [4][21]. - The dollar index reached a one-month low, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers [5][21]. Employment Data Impact - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 191,000, the lowest in over three years, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000, reducing concerns about labor market deterioration [6][22]. - Despite the positive employment data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut remain unchanged [22]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE price index report, expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for September, up from 2.7% previously, and a core PCE increase of 2.9% [10][24]. - The PCE data is considered a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, and any unexpected rise could strengthen the dollar and temporarily suppress gold prices [13][24]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Traders are betting on a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [12][24]. - Analysts suggest that gold prices are poised for upward movement, with a potential breakout above $4250 per ounce leading to targets of $4300 and historical highs of $4381 [17][25]. - Conversely, if gold prices fall below $4200 per ounce, support levels are identified at $4124, $4100, and $4059 [19][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are experiencing fluctuations due to various economic factors, including U.S. labor market data and expectations regarding inflation indicators [1][2] - Silver prices have recovered to above 13.00 yuan per gram, currently reported at 13.050 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.81% increase after a previous decline due to profit-taking [1] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims falling to 191,000, lower than the previous value of 218,000 and significantly below market expectations of 220,000, which has led to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, putting pressure on silver prices [1] Group 2 - The market is awaiting the delayed release of the September PCE inflation data, which is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with expectations that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points in December [1] - If inflation exceeds expectations, it may lead to a reassessment of the rate cut timeline, potentially exerting downward pressure on silver prices; conversely, moderate inflation could provide upward momentum for silver [1] - The current geopolitical situation remains uncertain, maintaining high levels of market risk aversion, which supports silver's resilience despite a strong yield environment [1]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has slightly retreated, trading at $4,201 per ounce in London and $4,241 per ounce for U.S. gold [1] - Domestic gold prices have fluctuated, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki offering gold jewelry at 1,328 yuan per gram, while other brands have seen minor price adjustments [1] - The gold recycling price is at 937 yuan per gram, with Industrial and Agricultural Bank gold bars priced at 972.23 yuan and 981.35 yuan respectively, indicating real-time price changes [1] Group 2 - Key factors supporting the high volatility of gold prices include weak U.S. ADP employment data, rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar [3] - Upcoming economic indicators such as the PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting next week are critical events that could trigger significant market movements [3]