Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, highlighting his recent warnings about the labor market and his evolving relationship with the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: Waller's Economic Insights - Waller warned in July that private sector hiring was "approaching stall speed," indicating a potential downturn in the labor market, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% at that time [2]. - His predictions were validated by subsequent weak employment reports in July and August, reinforcing his credibility as an economist [2]. - Waller's ability to articulate a coherent framework for interest rate cuts has enhanced his reputation on Wall Street, distinguishing him from other candidates who may lack such qualities [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Waller's chances for the Fed Chair position appear limited due to his lack of visibility within Trump's inner circle and the political advisors associated with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has begun interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair position, with Waller being one of the three strong contenders mentioned by Trump, alongside Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [2][3]. - The political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve has become contentious, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the institution's traditional independence and targeting Fed officials he disagrees with [3]. Group 3: Waller's Background and Qualifications - Waller's unique background, having spent much of his career in academia before joining the St. Louis Fed, allows him to communicate effectively with diverse audiences [5]. - His experience includes navigating complex economic discussions, which he believes is essential for formulating monetary policy [5][6]. - Waller's previous challenges to economic orthodoxy, particularly regarding interest rate hikes, have drawn both criticism and validation from the economic community [6]. Group 4: Current Economic Context - As of July, most Fed officials were cautious due to inflation remaining above the 2% target for four consecutive years, influenced by tariffs imposed by Trump [6]. - Waller argues that the Fed should focus on preventing labor market deterioration and consider interest rate cuts despite temporary price effects from tariffs [6][7]. - His recent vocal opposition to prevailing economic policies may be seen as a strategic move to position himself favorably for the Fed Chair role [7].

Group 1 - The former St. Louis Fed President, Brad, is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair and has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy [1] - Brad plans to potentially arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 to discuss his candidacy further [1] - The decision on whether to lower interest rates further next year will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1]

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos are confirmed candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated a potential early appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Zervos argues that the Federal Reserve should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent a slowdown in the labor market and potentially create an additional one million jobs [4][5] - Zervos has consistently advocated for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate during the last three Federal Reserve meetings [5] - Both candidates emphasize the importance of having individuals with market experience involved in monetary policy decisions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with Christopher Waller currently seen as the frontrunner. Analysts suggest that regardless of who is selected, the Fed is likely to adopt a more dovish stance [1][2]. Candidate Overview - The list of candidates for the next Fed chair has expanded from four to around ten, including notable figures such as Christopher Waller, James Bullard, Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett, Mark Sulzman, and Kevin Warsh. The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessenet, is leading the selection process and has expressed a strong impression of Waller after his interview [1][4]. - Waller, who has been a Fed governor since December 2020, is viewed as a suitable candidate due to his willingness to adjust policies based on future economic predictions rather than current data [4][5]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Waller's monetary policy stance is considered dovish, having supported a 25 basis point rate cut in July. He advocates for quicker policy easing to stimulate the economy as long as inflation risks are manageable [5][6]. - Other candidates also show support for rate cuts, with Hassett criticizing the Fed for slow rate reductions and Warsh and Bullard shifting from hawkish to dovish positions recently [5][6]. Candidate Profiles - **Christopher Waller (65 years)**: Supports rate cuts and focuses on potential inflation excluding tariff impacts. He is seen as a leading candidate due to his understanding of the Fed's system [6]. - **Kevin Warsh (55 years)**: Previously hawkish, now supports rate cuts and advocates for coordination between the Fed and Treasury on national debt management [6]. - **Kevin Hassett (63 years)**: Critiques the Fed's slow rate cuts and has a close relationship with Trump, favoring aggressive fiscal stimulus [6]. - **Stephen Moore (42 years)**: Known for advocating for tax cuts and deregulation, he supports structural reforms in the Fed [6]. - **James Bullard (64 years)**: Historically a hawk, he has recently indicated a willingness to support rate cuts [6]. - **Mark Sulzman (55 years)**: His recent views are unclear, but he has a background in coordinating economic policies during the Bush administration [6]. Implications of New Appointments - The nomination of Stephen Moore by Trump to fill a vacancy at the Fed could further strengthen the dovish faction within the Fed, although it may not significantly impact recent monetary policy decisions [7][8]. - Analysts believe that Moore's potential influence on the Fed's decision-making will depend on the economic conditions at the time of his confirmation [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is in the process of selecting a new chair, with candidates including Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Lori Logan among others [1][2] - President Trump is expected to announce the final decision on the new chair in the fall, following interviews conducted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenette [1][3] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board is pending Senate confirmation, which has led to a more measured approach in selecting the new chair [1][4] Group 2 - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, and the future chair's options may be more limited than usual [3][4] - Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have expressed differing opinions on interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut during the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting [4][5] - Philip Jefferson is noted as a potential first Black chair of the Federal Reserve, and he has supported the decision to maintain stable interest rates this year [5]

Core Points - Trump is expected to announce the new Federal Reserve Chair soon, with a decision on the candidates to be made this weekend [1][4] - The potential candidates have been narrowed down to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt [2][3] - The leading candidates include Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, with Christopher Waller likely being the third candidate [5][6] Candidate Analysis - Kevin Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and has a strong understanding of Trump's economic policies [5] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is known for his moderate hawkish stance and has a reputation on Wall Street [5][7] - Christopher Waller recently voted against a policy and supports interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [6][7] Additional Candidates - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback has expressed interest in the position [4][8] - There are indications of another candidate being discussed, as noted by Jim Bianco, a macro analyst [8][12] Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future monetary policy discussions [15] - The new appointee could potentially be positioned to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman as indicated by Trump's recent statements, highlighting a narrowed list of four candidates and the implications of upcoming appointments on monetary policy [1][2][3]. Candidate Analysis - Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Fed Chair to four, excluding Scott Bessent, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett being the leading candidates [2][4]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, is recognized for his moderate hawkish stance and experience during the financial crisis, while Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and familiar with his economic policies [5]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is likely to be the third candidate, aligning with Trump's preference for a more accommodative monetary policy [6][8]. - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [9][12]. Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is expected to influence short-term monetary policy and could serve as a precursor to the next Fed Chair selection [3][21]. - The new appointee's term lasts until January, but they may be positioned to influence policy discussions leading up to Powell's term expiration in May [21][22]. - Trump suggested that selecting a candidate who could lead the Fed directly would allow for immediate influence on policy debates [22]. Candidate Odds - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessent at 1% [19].

Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt [1] - The two leading candidates are Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, the current economic advisor to Trump [2] - A potential third candidate is Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, who has expressed support for interest rate cuts [2][10] Group 2 - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [3] - Fishback has previously worked as an advisor in the government and is seeking to provide relevant information for consideration [3] - There is speculation about another candidate not yet discussed, as indicated by Jim Bianco, a macro analyst [3] Group 3 - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by the undisclosed candidate at 28%, while Hassett has risen to 22% and Waller to 15% [7] - Trump's upcoming decision on the successor to Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future policy discussions [10] - The new appointee could potentially be a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [10]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowed down by Trump to four individuals, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet [1] - The two leading candidates mentioned are Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, and Kevin Hassett, currently serving as Trump's economic advisor [2] - A third candidate likely to be considered is current Fed governor Christopher Waller, who has expressed views aligning with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy [2][10] Group 2 - The identity of a fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [3] - Polling data indicates that Warsh has a 29% chance of being selected, with an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessenet at 1% [7] - Trump's upcoming decision on the successor to Fed governor Adriana Kugler is significant, as it may influence future policy discussions and potentially set the stage for the next Fed Chair [10]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, believes that regional banks have strong candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the competitive landscape for the Federal Reserve Chair position, particularly among regional banks [1]