Group 1 - The former St. Louis Fed President, Brad, is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair and has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy [1] - Brad plans to potentially arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 to discuss his candidacy further [1] - The decision on whether to lower interest rates further next year will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1]

作者：何浩，华尔街见闻 周四，经济学家Marc Sumerlin确认他自己是美联储主席候选人之一，他表示对该职位有兴趣，并认为 激进降息是合适的。华尔街老兵、Jefferies首席市场策略师David Zervos也是美联储主席候选人之一，同 日表态称支持大幅降息。 本周三，特朗普表示可能稍微提前任命下任美联储主席，人选缩小到三四位。美国财政部长贝森特同日 表示，计划考虑多达11位人选。Zervos与贝莱德债券策略师Rick Rieder是所有候选人中市场背景比经济 学背景更浓厚的。 在接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔的竞争中，Sumerlin和Zervos的利率立场在方向上与美国总统特朗普一 致。特朗普多次敦促美联储放松利率政策，主张最多降息3个百分点，但由鲍威尔领导的联邦公开市场 委员会自2024年12月降息以来一直维持基准利率不变。 Sumerlin：下调利率是一个容易的决定 Sumerlin曾在小布什政府期间担任美国国家经济委员会副主任，并在2000年总统竞选期间担任其经济顾 问。他曾参与小布什标志性的《经济增长与减税协调法案》以及《萨班斯-奥克斯利法案》相关法规制 定，但他没有任何美联储相关工作经验。近年来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman as indicated by Trump's recent statements, highlighting a narrowed list of four candidates and the implications of upcoming appointments on monetary policy [1][2][3]. Candidate Analysis - Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Fed Chair to four, excluding Scott Bessent, with Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett being the leading candidates [2][4]. - Warsh, a former Fed governor, is recognized for his moderate hawkish stance and experience during the financial crisis, while Hassett is currently Trump's economic advisor and familiar with his economic policies [5]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is likely to be the third candidate, aligning with Trump's preference for a more accommodative monetary policy [6][8]. - The identity of the fourth candidate remains undisclosed, but James Fishback, CEO of Azoria, has expressed interest in the position [9][12]. Implications of Appointments - Trump's decision on the successor to Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is expected to influence short-term monetary policy and could serve as a precursor to the next Fed Chair selection [3][21]. - The new appointee's term lasts until January, but they may be positioned to influence policy discussions leading up to Powell's term expiration in May [21][22]. - Trump suggested that selecting a candidate who could lead the Fed directly would allow for immediate influence on policy debates [22]. Candidate Odds - Current betting odds show Warsh leading with a 29% chance, followed closely by an undisclosed candidate at 28%, Hassett at 22%, Waller at 15%, and Bessent at 1% [19].

多种有利因素加持，哈塞特在美联储主席竞选中占据领先位置 金十数据7月15日讯，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特正成为下一任美联储主席的热门人选，据多 位消息人士透露，在特朗普考虑任命一位与其立场更为一致的美联储领导人的背景下，哈塞特正在脱颖 而出。哈塞特最终是否能获得提名尚未确定。但消息人士表示，哈塞特具备其他人所不具备的优势。他 是国家经济委员会负责人，并曾在特朗普第一任期担任关键经济顾问。哈塞特为特朗普工作已近十年， 是少数几位既赢得总统信任、又长期保持良好关系的顾问之一。在特朗普第一届政府中担任过两个职务 后，他曾加入由特朗普女婿库什纳创办的一家私募股权公司，并在2024年总统竞选期间为特朗普提供经 济政策建议。此外，哈塞特也被视为一名纪律性强且善于应对媒体的代言人，这正是特朗普长期以来在 其高级任命者身上所看重的特质。Evercore IS指出，哈塞特面临的最大挑战在于，其必须向市场证明， 尽管他是特朗普的忠实支持者，但在担任美联储主席时仍能够保持足够的独立性，以维护美联储的信 誉。 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特在竞争下一任美联储主席方面的胜算增加。 然而，特朗普遴选美联储 主席候选人的程序仍然存在变数。（华盛顿邮报） ...

两位名叫"凯文"的共和党人，目前正成为角逐下任美联储主席的最大热门。 据素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos援引知情人士透露，这两位"凯文"分别是：现 任美国国家经济顾问委员会主任凯文·哈塞特和前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 其中，之前呼声还并不算高的哈塞特，如今正逐渐成为美联储下任主席的有力竞争者。他的崛 起甚至已经开始威胁到了凯文·沃什的地位。 沃什曾是该职位的早期热门人选，自从八年前特朗普未选择他而选择鲍威尔以来，沃什一直在 暗暗谋求此位。不过，一些与总统关系密切的人士担心，不属于特朗普核心圈子的沃什，可能 不会轻易支持降息。 Timiraos对此撰文形容称，瑞正在发生的事情似乎具有典型的特朗普风格：让两个雄心勃勃的 男人在一场高风险竞赛中争夺他的认可，这与特朗普曾在真人秀节目《学徒》中推崇的董事会 博弈如出一辙…… 注：红线代表哈塞特当选概率 哈塞特正异军突起？ 据知情人士透露，哈塞特在6月份已至少两次与特朗普会面讨论美联储职位的问题。这些讨论 标志着哈塞特的转变，他之前曾告诉盟友自己对此不感兴趣，但现在却表示如果被邀请，他会 接受这份工作。 现年63岁的哈塞特是一位书卷气十足的博士经济学 ...

Group 1 - Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing pressure from President Trump, who is considering nominating a successor to weaken Powell's influence before his term ends in May 2024 [1] - Two Republican candidates named "Kevin" are competing for the next Federal Reserve Chair position, with Kevin Hassett emerging as a strong contender against Kevin Warsh [1][3] - Hassett has shifted his stance and is now open to accepting the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump multiple times in June [3] Group 2 - Hassett has become a vocal critic of Powell, accusing him of making decisions based on partisan bias rather than economic data [3] - Warsh, who has been a candidate for the position for years, is also actively seeking meetings to discuss the role, indicating his continued interest [3][4] - Warsh is attempting to pivot from his previous support for hawkish monetary policy to a more collaborative approach with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [4] Group 3 - Warsh's connections in the financial elite and his media presence may give him an edge over Hassett, who has been more aligned with Trump's inner circle [5] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is in a unique position to influence the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair, as Trump has expressed interest in having him take on both roles [5]

Group 1 - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the main contenders [1][2] - Hassett's momentum is rising, having met with President Trump multiple times, while Warsh faces skepticism due to his earlier popularity and "hawkish" stance [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also rumored to be interested in the Fed Chair position, with suggestions of him potentially holding both roles [2][9] Group 2 - Hassett, a seasoned economist with a strong academic background, has shifted his stance to align more closely with Trump's views, becoming a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [3][4][5] - Warsh, with a high-profile financial background, is attempting to reshape his "hawkish" image and has proposed aggressive rate cuts in collaboration with Mnuchin [6][7] - Mnuchin's dual role as an advisor and potential candidate adds complexity to the selection process, with his comments possibly exacerbating divisions within the Fed [8][9] Group 3 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has fueled the search for a new Fed Chair, emphasizing the need for rapid interest rate cuts to support economic growth [10][11] - The expectation for the next Chair to prioritize rate cuts is clearer than during Trump's first term, raising concerns about the potential impact on Fed independence and inflation expectations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is a strong contender to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, having met with President Trump in June [1] Group 1 - Kevin Hassett is identified as a potential candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position [1] - The meeting between Hassett and Trump in June indicates political support for his candidacy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]