格隆汇1月30日｜据Politico，凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)拿下令人垂涎的美联储主席一职的可能性大增。沃 什既是央行资深人士，又是华尔街的资深人士。作为美联储主席的热门人选，他还有一项天然的优势， 就是他拥有显赫的人脉背景：他的夫人出身于著名的雅诗兰黛家族，其岳父罗纳德·劳德是特朗普总统 的老友兼重要支持者，这为沃什在政界和商界都提供了独特的网络资源。特朗普的传记作者Tim O'Brien曾说过："任何时候，只要某人与有权有势或有名的人有联系，对唐纳德·特朗普来说都至关重 要。" ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月29日｜德国商业银行经济学家Christoph Balz指出，美联储理事沃勒在周三会议上投下反对票 应被视为其角逐美联储主席职位的一次行动。若拒绝特朗普强烈要求的降息，可能会大幅降低沃勒的获 选概率。沃勒投票支持降息25个基点，与同为特朗普提名的米兰立场一致。沃勒仍可辩称自己近几个月 持续警告劳动力市场恶化风险，且认为当前通胀风险已非主要矛盾。在预测市场上，目前沃勒的支持率 仍落后于贝莱德高管里克·里德尔及前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 ...

沃勒此次的行动似乎也违背了他自己设定的标准。 从纯粹的经济角度来看，沃勒的异议显得缺乏说服力。Levin指出，"目前尚不清楚为何进一步降息如此 紧迫，以至于引发异议。"尽管沃勒倾向于使用调整关税后的指数，但通胀率仍略高于目标。 与此同时，强劲的GDP数据和趋于稳定的劳动力市场已经"消除了降息的紧迫性"。 此外，委员会目前的政策立场已处于合理的"中性"水平。决策者估计的中性政策利率范围在2.6%至 3.9%之间，而经过三次降息后，目前的利率范围为3.5%至3.75%，正处于这一区间内。 Levin回顾了沃勒在7月份的立场，当时沃勒认为关税是一次性的价格上涨，通胀接近目标。然而，随着 后续数据的发布，当时的许多假设（如GDP增长疲软）已被证明不再成立。 据彭博专栏作家Jonathan Levin最新分析，作为下一任美联储主席的四位最终候选人之一，沃勒此举虽 然可能迎合了总统特朗普对低利率的偏好，但却迫使这位本应"光荣的公职人员"接受了一场"忠诚度测 试"，恐将付出沉重的声誉代价。 市场对这一动态反应迅速。在博彩网站Kalshi上，沃勒接任美联储主席的几率从周二的8%飙升至周三的 15%。特朗普此前已明确表示，他将 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 目前，沃勒的反对票正被与其竞选美联储主席联系起来，至少券商Pepperston的分析师Michael Brown是 这么认为的。他表示，这"或许能让沃勒接替鲍威尔主席职位的微弱希望暂时维持下去"。 ...

Group 1 - The race for the next Federal Reserve chair is nearing its conclusion, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant indicating that President Trump may announce his choice soon, and BlackRock's Rick Reer has seen a rise in his odds of being selected [1][2] - Candidates for the position include former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, with Waller facing a critical decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting [2][3] - Waller's vote at the FOMC meeting is crucial; he can either align with President Trump's preference for lower rates or maintain his independence by voting to hold rates steady, which could impact his candidacy [4][6] Group 2 - The President seeks a candidate who is loyal and aligns with his views, expressing concerns about appointing someone who may not adhere to his preferences once in office [8][9] - The candidates with closer ties to Trump, Worsh and Hasset, are seen as more favorable due to their established relationships, while Waller and Reer are viewed as outsiders [9][10] - Recent economic data, such as durable goods orders, shows positive trends, but the Fed's willingness to cut rates again will depend on inflation progress or significant labor market concerns [11][12][14] Group 3 - The upcoming FOMC meeting will be significant, as it will be the first time Chair Jay Powell addresses reporters since a criminal investigation was initiated against the Fed, adding political drama to the proceedings [16][18] - The President is cautious about making a choice he may regret, as he has expressed dissatisfaction with his previous selection of Powell, indicating a desire for a trustworthy candidate [19][20] - The announcement regarding the interest rate decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, with extensive coverage expected [21]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of Rick Riedel, a BlackRock executive, becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54% as of January 24, up from just 4% at the beginning of the year, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment towards his candidacy [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Riedel's qualifications and reform-oriented vision have garnered attention from President Trump, with positive feedback from bond market participants and support from corporate executives at the Davos World Economic Forum [3][4]. - Riedel has a substantial background in Wall Street, managing approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies as BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, and has never held a position within the Federal Reserve, which may allow him to approach the role without traditional constraints [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Riedel has criticized the current monetary policy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should focus on the weakening labor market rather than inflation, which he considers a past issue. He advocates for lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity [7][8]. - He proposes reducing the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate from the current range of 3.5% to 3%, indicating that more rate cuts are likely than previously anticipated [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Riedel is viewed as a pragmatic candidate rather than an ideologue, likely to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve while balancing the demands of the White House [9][10]. - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chairman is seen as one of Trump's most influential appointments for his second term, especially as the administration addresses voter concerns over rising living costs and inflation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is highly anticipated, with potential candidates including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder, each having different implications for monetary policy and market stability [1] Group 1: Candidates and Their Implications - Kevin Hassett has been a favored candidate for a long time, closely aligned with Trump's economic policies, which may lead to aggressive monetary policy stances [1] - Christopher Waller, a current Federal Reserve Governor, is also in the running, but his approach may not align as closely with Trump's preferences [1] - Kevin Walsh is viewed as a moderate rate cutter, potentially more acceptable to various stakeholders, and could be a compromise choice for Trump [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Sun Lijian from Fudan University warns that sacrificing the independence of the Federal Reserve for political gains could have long-term negative consequences for the U.S. economy [1] - Zhang Jianping from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation notes that Hassett's economic policy thinking has been significantly influenced by Trump since the first term [1] - Scholar Chu Yin suggests that while Hassett may be Trump's preferred choice, it could lead to significant market volatility, indicating that a more stable approach may be necessary [1]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the new Federal Reserve Chair has intensified with the emergence of a new candidate, Rick Rieder, alongside established contenders Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Profiles - Rick Rieder, currently the Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, has shown strong performance in interviews with President Trump, leading to an increased probability of his nomination [2][3]. - Rieder's background differs from traditional candidates as he lacks a PhD in economics, similar to the current Chair Jerome Powell, which may signal a shift in the selection process [2]. - Kevin Hassett, previously a leading candidate, may remain in his current role, narrowing the competition to Rieder, Warsh, and Waller, who represent more conventional choices with extensive central bank experience [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Views - Rieder advocates for lowering interest rates to around 3% as the "neutral level" and has a more lenient stance on government deficits and inflation, suggesting that slightly higher inflation could be acceptable if it stabilizes debt dynamics and maintains employment [3]. - The prediction market indicates that Kevin Warsh remains the frontrunner for nomination, with Rieder's chances significantly rising to second place [3]. Group 3: Political Context - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that Trump plans to announce the nominee around the time of the Davos Forum to reduce market uncertainty [4]. - The political environment has become tense, particularly with the Justice Department's recent actions against the current Chair Powell, which may complicate the nomination process for any candidate [4]. - Rieder is viewed as a "safer option" for Senate confirmation due to his distance from political controversies, contrasting with traditional candidates who are more entrenched in Washington politics [4].

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next chair of the Federal Reserve is intensifying, with President Donald Trump indicating a preference to retain economist Kevin Hassett in his current position at the White House [1] Group 1 - The contest for the Federal Reserve chair position has taken a new direction as President Trump expresses interest in keeping Kevin Hassett [1]

Core Insights - The President is considering three or four candidates for the Fed chair position, with no commitment to a selection before the end of the year [2][3] - Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman were both described as "fantastic" by the President, indicating a positive view towards them [2][3] - Waller's candidacy appears to be gaining momentum, as 83% of attendees at the Yale CEO summit expressed support for him as Fed chair [6] Candidate Analysis - The President's comments about Waller are among the first positive remarks, suggesting a potential shift in support [5] - There is notable pushback from Wall Street against Kevin Hasset, which may impact his chances [6][7] - Waller emphasized the importance of maintaining independence if selected, which aligns with the expectations of market participants [7]