We've got some breaking news on the race for Fed chair. Steve Leeman is standing by for more on that. But first, let's head to Washington to Aean Jabvers.And Aean, what's the news. >> Kelly, the news is the president was just talking about the Fed chair race uh in a session in the Oval Office. Reporters asked him about how many people he's considering for the job. The president said he's considering three or four people for that job.The president did not commit to selecting a Fed chair before the end of thi ...

眼下，美国总统特朗普显然已进入挑选鲍威尔继任者的最后阶段——鲍威尔的美联储主席第二任期即将 结束。哈塞特在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时，拒绝直接回应自身的候选资格，但 表示凝聚共识是该职位的重要职责之一。 "美联储的独立性至关重要，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）其他成员的意见也同样重要，"他表 示，"因此，推动利率调整的关键在于，基于事实与数据形成共识。" 来源：金十数据 哈塞特在最新采访中拒绝回应候选资格，但明确支持美联储独立性，反驳与特朗普亲近将影响决策的反 对声音。在此之际，预测市场显示沃什将实现逆袭。 美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）作为美联储主席职位的最终候选人之一，于周二 表态支持央行独立性。 近日，哈塞特的候选资格遭遇部分反对声音。消息人士向CNBC透露，特朗普的顾问团队担忧，哈塞特 被外界视为与特朗普过于亲近，可能会听从总统指令，而非根据美联储"稳定物价、充分就业"的双重使 命制定利率政策。 尽管鲍威尔是由特朗普任命的，但特朗普一直对这位美联储主席持批评态度。 特朗普一直要求美联储大幅降息，即便联邦公开市场委员会自9月以来已连续三次降息，累计降 ...

以下文章来源于金十数据 ，作者金十数据 金十数据 . 金十数据官方服务号。汇聚金融投资行业的各类数据和资讯，数据资讯快、准、全。 来源 | 金十数据 特朗普政府的重要经济学家凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）在12月初曾是明显的领跑者，但前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）近来 已重新成为有力的竞争者。 预测市场Kalshi在周一下午给出沃什的胜算为48%，而哈塞特为41%。另一预测平台Polymarket显示沃什的胜率为49%，哈塞特为43%。 这场美联储职位竞争的格局变化，发生在特朗普上周五向《华尔街日报》表示他倾向于在"两个凯文"之间做出选择之后，也发生在华尔街重 量级人物——摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）发出支持沃什的信号之后。 此外，一些经济学家和美联储观察人士对哈塞特可能获得此职位表示担忧，称他过去对特朗普政策的拥护姿态过于明显，可能不适合领导以 独立性著称的美国央行。美国全国广播公司财经频道（CNBC）的一篇报道也称，能在总统面前说得上话的人士中，有人反对哈塞特的候选 资格，他们担心如果债券市场认为哈塞特是特朗普的"口袋人选"，可能会引发市场动荡。 研 ...

格隆汇12月15日｜据英国《金融时报》，摩根大通CEO戴蒙近日表态：支持前理事沃什(Kevin Warsh)出 任美联储主席。戴蒙直言，沃什将成为一位伟大的主席，另一位热门候选人哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)可能 更顺从白宫降息意愿，或引发市场反向博弈，损害联美联储的独立性。戴蒙在闭门会议中分析指出，若 哈塞特当选，他可能迅速降低短期利率以配合美国总统特朗普的经济诉求。戴蒙警告，由于市场担心哈 塞特缺乏独立性、过于依附白宫，激进降息可能点燃通胀预期，导致长端利率因投资者抛售债券而飙 升。事实上，自11月下旬媒体报导哈塞特成为领跑者以来，10年期美国国债收益率已从4%跳升至 4.2%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月10日｜据英国金融时报，美国总统特朗普本周将启动最后一轮美联储主席候选人面试，美国 白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特将与另外三位候选人竞争。据三名高级政府官员透露，特朗普和美国财 长贝森特定于周三面试美联储前理事凯文•沃什。官员们表示，尽管部分华尔街投资者担心哈塞特与总 统关系过于密切，可能会过度激进地降息，但哈塞特仍然处于最有可能在明年五月接替鲍威尔的领先位 置。然而，继续进行额外面试的决定表明哈塞特并非板上钉钉的人选。官员们还提出了哈塞特缩短任期 的可能性。据官员透露，贝森特已向白宫提交了一份包含四个名字的名单，其中包括哈塞特和沃什。其 他两位候选人将从"其他决赛者名单"中选出，其中包美联储理事沃勒、美联储理事鲍曼以及贝莱德的里 克·里德尔。 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们已经将美联储主席候选人精简到一个人（本来有十个人）。财政部长贝森特面试 了一些我不知道的候选人。 ...

Group 1 - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair raises concerns about a possible interest rate cut, which could negatively impact the US dollar [1][2] - Market reactions to Hassett's nomination rumors have been muted, possibly due to his status as a popular candidate and recent declines in Treasury yields [1][3] - The probability of Hassett's nomination has increased by 18 percentage points to 53%, while other candidates like Christopher Waller and Kevin Walsh have lower probabilities [1][2] Group 2 - The market currently downplays risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about the government's desire to lower rising national debt financing costs [3][4] - Analysts believe that the future path of interest rates will primarily depend on new economic data rather than the preferences of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] - Even if Hassett is seen as less independent compared to other candidates, his traditional economic background may prevent extreme policy shifts [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller for the position of Fed Chair, highlighting his recent warnings about the labor market and his evolving relationship with the Trump administration [2][3][4]. Group 1: Waller's Economic Insights - Waller warned in July that private sector hiring was "approaching stall speed," indicating a potential downturn in the labor market, despite a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% at that time [2]. - His predictions were validated by subsequent weak employment reports in July and August, reinforcing his credibility as an economist [2]. - Waller's ability to articulate a coherent framework for interest rate cuts has enhanced his reputation on Wall Street, distinguishing him from other candidates who may lack such qualities [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Waller's chances for the Fed Chair position appear limited due to his lack of visibility within Trump's inner circle and the political advisors associated with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has begun interviewing candidates for the Fed Chair position, with Waller being one of the three strong contenders mentioned by Trump, alongside Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh [2][3]. - The political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve has become contentious, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction with the institution's traditional independence and targeting Fed officials he disagrees with [3]. Group 3: Waller's Background and Qualifications - Waller's unique background, having spent much of his career in academia before joining the St. Louis Fed, allows him to communicate effectively with diverse audiences [5]. - His experience includes navigating complex economic discussions, which he believes is essential for formulating monetary policy [5][6]. - Waller's previous challenges to economic orthodoxy, particularly regarding interest rate hikes, have drawn both criticism and validation from the economic community [6]. Group 4: Current Economic Context - As of July, most Fed officials were cautious due to inflation remaining above the 2% target for four consecutive years, influenced by tariffs imposed by Trump [6]. - Waller argues that the Fed should focus on preventing labor market deterioration and consider interest rate cuts despite temporary price effects from tariffs [6][7]. - His recent vocal opposition to prevailing economic policies may be seen as a strategic move to position himself favorably for the Fed Chair role [7].

Group 1 - The former St. Louis Fed President, Brad, is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair and has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy [1] - Brad plans to potentially arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 to discuss his candidacy further [1] - The decision on whether to lower interest rates further next year will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1]

Group 1 - Economists Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos are confirmed candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, both advocating for aggressive interest rate cuts [1][2] - President Trump has indicated a potential early appointment of the next Federal Reserve Chair, narrowing the candidate list to three or four individuals [1] - Sumerlin believes that a 50 basis point rate cut is an obvious choice given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [2][3] Group 2 - Zervos argues that the Federal Reserve should decisively ease monetary policy to prevent a slowdown in the labor market and potentially create an additional one million jobs [4][5] - Zervos has consistently advocated for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate during the last three Federal Reserve meetings [5] - Both candidates emphasize the importance of having individuals with market experience involved in monetary policy decisions [5]