12月22日，国际金银价格同步攀升至历史高位，成为年内金融市场瞩目的焦点。数据显示，现货黄金价格日内上涨1.33%，最高 触及每盎司4420.47美元，刷新历史纪录，年内累计涨幅达68%。白银表现同样强劲，伦敦现货白银价格日内涨幅超过2.4%，同 步创出新高，年内累计上涨近139%。 贵金属市场的强劲走势迅速传导至股票市场，A股贵金属板块整体走强。港股方面，万国黄金集团、中国黄金国际、中国白银集 团、紫金矿业及老铺黄金等个股均呈现显著上涨态势。 自去年以来，黄金价格持续走强，即便在已累积较大涨幅的基础上仍能再创新高，反映出其背后坚实的基本面与市场情绪支 撑。本轮金价上涨主要受以下四方面因素共同推动： 一、美元汇率走势是影响黄金价格的关键变量。历史数据表明，黄金价格通常与美元呈反向波动关系。由于国际黄金主要以美 元计价，美元走弱时，同等金额所能购买的黄金数量相应减少，从而推动金价上行。当前美元处于降息周期，汇率趋弱，对黄 金价格构成直接支撑。 二、市场对美联储降息的预期持续存在。在利率下行环境中，非生息资产黄金相较于其他金融资产的吸引力逐步提升。尤其是 在美股科技股等传统高收益资产进入调整阶段时，黄金的避险与配 ...

新华财经北京12月16日电（记者王小璐） 继黄金、白银屡创新高之后，铂族金属接力成为市场焦点。近两个交易日，国内铂钯携手走强，交替领涨商品市 场。 行情方面，铂期货主力合约在前一交易日强势涨停之后，16日再涨超2%；而钯期货主力合约在前一交易日涨超4.7%之后，16日再度收涨4.73%，携手铂期货 刷新上市以来新高。而在海外市场，16日电子盘中，NYMEX铂金主力合约也创出2011年以来新高。 图为NYMEX铂金主力合约走势日K线图 尽管年内铂钯价格已经收录了较大涨幅，但在分析人士看来，在宏观"东风"未止的当下，铂族金属正迎来一轮价值重估的机遇期，尤其是铂金在多元需求支 撑下或将进一步上行；相对而言，钯金则可能面临供强需弱的挑战。 宏观与基本面共振铂钯期货价格大幅走高 在市场分析人士看来，铂、钯本次上涨是宏观预期与现货基本面紧张双重因素共振的结果。 中信期货分析师王雨欣进一步指出，截至12月12日，铂金1个月租赁利率已上升至14.12%的高位，这直接反映了现货市场供应的紧俏。 "当前地缘问题是钯金供应的关键扰动因素"，王雨欣表示，美国商务部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布，导致其他地区钯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term optimistic sentiment from the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's interest rate cut has been realized, but the easing of trade situation and the loose direction of the Fed's monetary policy remain unchanged. Copper prices are expected to be supported by the tight supply of refined copper [3]. - The global trade situation has eased, and with disturbances in the overseas supply side, aluminum prices have reached a new high for the year. Aluminum prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [5][7]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy remains high, and due to policy adjustments in production, supply is tight, providing strong support for prices [10]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is still positive. Lead and zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space for zinc prices is limited in the surplus cycle [14][16]. - Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may rise in a volatile manner [19]. - The inventory pressure of refined nickel remains significant, dragging down nickel prices in the short term. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices [21]. - The supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply since August, and the futures price has rebounded. Market games may focus on mine - end disturbances and demand expectations [24]. - The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the price is approaching the cost line, the expectation of production cuts is increasing [27]. - The stainless - steel market fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend [30]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Domestic October official manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected, and the offshore RMB depreciated, causing copper prices to fluctuate weakly. LME copper inventory decreased by 325 tons to 134,625 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 11,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The approval of copper exports by an Indonesian mining company has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight pattern remains. Refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference range for SHFE copper is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,750 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The easing of trade situation pushed up aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose 0.63% to 2,888 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,415 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, while LME aluminum inventory increased by 99,000 tons to 458,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the global trade situation and overseas supply disturbances, aluminum prices reached a new high for the year. Aluminum prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,850 - 2,920 dollars/ton [5][7]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The main AD2512 contract increased by 0.61% to 20,745 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 130 tons to 5,010 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy remains high, and due to policy adjustments in production, supply is tight, providing strong support for prices, despite the large delivery pressure of the 2511 contract [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.22% to 17,391 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 3.5 dollars to 2,018.5 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 2,790 tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the production of primary and recycled lead has different trends. The overall inventory reduction of domestic lead ingots has slowed down, but the absolute level is still low. SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term [13][14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,372 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 22 dollars to 3,029 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 16,150 tons [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of domestic zinc ore continues to decline, and the processing fee of zinc concentrate has decreased again. Domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited in the surplus cycle [16]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 2, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The national main tin ingot social inventory decreased by 45 tons to 7,698 tons [17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,500 - 37,500 dollars/ton [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The price of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, and the price of nickel iron remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure of refined nickel remains significant, dragging down nickel prices in the short term. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 31, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 81,869 yuan, down 1.44% from the previous trading day. The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate increased [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply since August, and the futures price has rebounded. Market games may focus on mine - end disturbances and demand expectations. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79,500 - 83,500 yuan/ton [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 31, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.78% to 2,809 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price of Australia decreased, and the futures inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the price is approaching the cost line, the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The spot price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel market fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend [30].