Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term optimistic sentiment from the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the Fed's interest rate cut has been realized, but the easing of trade situation and the loose direction of the Fed's monetary policy remain unchanged. Copper prices are expected to be supported by the tight supply of refined copper [3]. - The global trade situation has eased, and with disturbances in the overseas supply side, aluminum prices have reached a new high for the year. Aluminum prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [5][7]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy remains high, and due to policy adjustments in production, supply is tight, providing strong support for prices [10]. - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is still positive. Lead and zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space for zinc prices is limited in the surplus cycle [14][16]. - Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may rise in a volatile manner [19]. - The inventory pressure of refined nickel remains significant, dragging down nickel prices in the short term. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices [21]. - The supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply since August, and the futures price has rebounded. Market games may focus on mine - end disturbances and demand expectations [24]. - The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the price is approaching the cost line, the expectation of production cuts is increasing [27]. - The stainless - steel market fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend [30]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Domestic October official manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected, and the offshore RMB depreciated, causing copper prices to fluctuate weakly. LME copper inventory decreased by 325 tons to 134,625 tons, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 11,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The approval of copper exports by an Indonesian mining company has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight pattern remains. Refined copper supply is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference range for SHFE copper is 86,500 - 88,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,750 - 11,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The easing of trade situation pushed up aluminum prices. LME aluminum rose 0.63% to 2,888 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,415 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, while LME aluminum inventory increased by 99,000 tons to 458,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the global trade situation and overseas supply disturbances, aluminum prices reached a new high for the year. Aluminum prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,850 - 2,920 dollars/ton [5][7]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The main AD2512 contract increased by 0.61% to 20,745 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 130 tons to 5,010 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy remains high, and due to policy adjustments in production, supply is tight, providing strong support for prices, despite the large delivery pressure of the 2511 contract [10]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.22% to 17,391 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 3.5 dollars to 2,018.5 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 2,790 tons [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the production of primary and recycled lead has different trends. The overall inventory reduction of domestic lead ingots has slowed down, but the absolute level is still low. SHFE lead is expected to be strong in the short term [13][14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,372 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 22 dollars to 3,029 dollars/ton. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 16,150 tons [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of domestic zinc ore continues to decline, and the processing fee of zinc concentrate has decreased again. Domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited in the surplus cycle [16]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 2, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The national main tin ingot social inventory decreased by 45 tons to 7,698 tons [17][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,500 - 37,500 dollars/ton [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The price of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, and the price of nickel iron remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory pressure of refined nickel remains significant, dragging down nickel prices in the short term. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 31, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 81,869 yuan, down 1.44% from the previous trading day. The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate increased [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lithium carbonate has been in short supply since August, and the futures price has rebounded. Market games may focus on mine - end disturbances and demand expectations. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79,500 - 83,500 yuan/ton [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 31, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.78% to 2,809 yuan/ton. The overseas FOB price of Australia decreased, and the futures inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, as the price is approaching the cost line, the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The spot price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [29][30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel market fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to continue the weak trend [30].