Group 1 - The semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also falling more than 2% [2][3] - Other major tech stocks also declined, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3%, indicating a broader weakness in the tech sector [3] - The market sentiment was negatively impacted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's warning about high valuation risks and the increasing likelihood of a US government shutdown, with a 76% probability of a government shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [4][3] Group 2 - Analysts are reassessing the collaboration between Oracle, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, which forms a business loop where OpenAI purchases cloud services from Oracle, Oracle buys GPUs from NVIDIA, and NVIDIA continues to invest in OpenAI [4] - The potential government shutdown is a growing concern, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain stalled [4][5] - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further, as inflation pressures appear more persistent than previously assessed [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with the market adjusting to the prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The COMEX gold futures for September delivery decreased by 0.19%, settling at $3681.80 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.181 million at the end of July, marking a drop of 176,000 from the previous month, the lowest level in 10 months [1][2] - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The number of layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, with the private sector layoff rate rising to 1.3%, up from a historical low of 1% a year ago [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow down to 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in Q4 due to rising prices and a slowing job market, compared to a 1.6% increase in Q2 [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a job increase of 75,000, falling below the critical threshold of 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [4] - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the pace of future monetary easing, with some suggesting a potential rate cut of 25 basis points in September [4][6] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs and ongoing uncertainties is affecting hiring plans, with many companies likely to slow down recruitment until they have clarity on costs [2][5] - The current policy interest rate is seen as consistent with a fully employed labor market, but inflation remains a concern, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve regarding employment and price stability will influence future policy decisions, with a focus on data-driven assessments [6]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with investors remaining cautious due to mixed market signals affecting demand outlook [1] - The strong US dollar continues to weigh on base metals, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [1] - China's seasonal demand hopes support copper prices, with three-month copper rising by 0.36% to $9,769 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts from BMI indicated that weak PMI data from the EU and the US could reinforce current demand concerns, while unexpectedly strong data might provide temporary support [1] - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 7.1% year-on-year increase in copper production in June [1] - China's refined copper production in July 2025 reached 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cumulative production from January to July at 8.623 million tons, up 9.9% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Indonesia's July refined tin exports increased by 11.2% year-on-year to 3,792.22 tons, but were lower than June's 4,465 tons [2] - Other base metals saw varied price movements, with three-month aluminum down 0.79% to $2,568 per ton, nickel down 0.4% to $15,090 per ton, zinc down 0.34% to $2,767.5 per ton, lead up 0.1% to $1,973 per ton, and tin up 0.39% to $33,835 per ton [2]

Core Insights - The silver price has declined to $38.00, ending a two-day rebound, influenced by a stronger US dollar [1] - July's Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a significant rise in inflation, with both overall and core PPI figures exceeding expectations [2][4] Market Analysis - Silver is consolidating between resistance at $38.50 and support at $37.50, with momentum shifting to neutral [3] - On Thursday, silver prices fell nearly 1.30%, trading close to $38.00, as the stronger-than-expected PPI and stable initial jobless claims data supported the dollar [3] - The dollar index has rebounded above the psychological level of 98.00 after a two-week low, prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [3] Inflation Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in July, marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022, significantly above the expected 0.2% [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI reached 3.3%, surpassing the anticipated 2.5% and accelerating from the previous 2.4% [4] Technical Analysis - On the 4-hour chart, silver is trading between resistance at $38.75 and support at $37.55, with bearish pressure emerging near recent highs [7] - The price has retreated to the convergence of the 50-day moving average at $38.01 and the 100-day moving average at $37.96, which is a critical level [7] - If silver continues to fall below this area, it may expose the lower boundary of the range, while a rebound could maintain the consolidation momentum [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish state, while the MACD shows signs of flattening after a bullish crossover, suggesting potential waning upward momentum [7]