Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as profit-taking occurred after a bullish week, but the overall trend remains upward with technical support from moving averages [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, gold opened at $4,537.12 per ounce, reached a high of $4,548.58, and then fell to a low of $4,303.73, closing at $4,331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [1][12]. - The daily trading range was $244.85, indicating high volatility during the session [1][12]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The opening on December 30 saw gold prices supported by buying interest at the mid-chart level, with geopolitical tensions providing a positive boost [3][13]. - Despite a bearish outlook from upcoming U.S. economic indicators, the long-term bullish sentiment for gold remains intact due to global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [3][14]. - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting minutes, which may influence gold prices depending on the tone regarding interest rates [14][16]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently supported by various moving averages, indicating potential buying opportunities if prices retrace to these levels [9][10]. - The monthly chart shows a potential bearish pattern, suggesting risks of a drop to the $4,000-$3,900 range, but a strong performance in the following month could lead to a bullish outlook towards $5,500-$6,000 [16][19]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a critical factor that could either support or hinder gold prices, with expectations leaning towards a more dovish approach [4][8][17]. - Continued adjustments in central bank reserve structures and persistent inflationary pressures are expected to support gold demand in the long term [16].

钛媒体App 12月6日消息，受投资者对美联储降息前景持乐观态度、白银ETF持仓增量等因素推动，当 地时间12月5日，国际白银价格显著上涨。伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破每盎司59.33美元，刷新历史 纪录。业内认为，白银价格持续走高，是因为全球性白银库存下降，导致现货市场出现明显的供应趋 紧。分析师表示，国外白银极度缺货，现在是在一个囤货的阶段。同时，分析师指出，短期追高会加剧 投资风险，应注意理性投资。 (央视财经) ...

当地时间周二，市场继续聚焦美联储降息前景，投资者对全球金融市场流动性紧缩的担忧情绪有所缓解。 2日国际金价下跌 部分投资者赶在美国关键通胀数据发布前以及国际金价涨至六周高位之际获利了结，纽商所黄金期价周二跌超1.2%。截 至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月黄金期价收于每盎司4220.8美元，跌幅为1.26%。 2日国际油价下跌 当地时间周二，市场继续聚焦美联储降息前景，投资者对全球金融市场流动性紧缩的担忧情绪有所缓解。 部分投资者赶在美国关键通胀数据发布前以及国际金价涨至六周高位之际获利了结，纽商所黄金期价周二跌超1.2%。截 至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月黄金期价收于每盎司4220.8美元，跌幅为1.26%。 2日国际油价下跌 投资者密切关注俄美就促成俄乌和平协议举行的会谈，分析师仍判断全球原油市场基本面偏向供应过剩，国际油价周二 下跌。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶58.64美元，跌幅为1.15%；2月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶62.45美元，跌幅为1.14%。 2日国际金价下跌 投资者密切关注俄美就促成俄乌和平协议举行的会谈，分析师仍判断全球原油市场基本面偏向供应 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor stocks in the US experienced a significant sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 2% and major companies like Broadcom, TSMC ADR, and Micron Technology also falling more than 2% [2][3] - Other major tech stocks also declined, with Oracle dropping over 6% and Tesla down over 3%, indicating a broader weakness in the tech sector [3] - The market sentiment was negatively impacted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's warning about high valuation risks and the increasing likelihood of a US government shutdown, with a 76% probability of a government shutdown by 2025 according to Polymarket [4][3] Group 2 - Analysts are reassessing the collaboration between Oracle, NVIDIA, and OpenAI, which forms a business loop where OpenAI purchases cloud services from Oracle, Oracle buys GPUs from NVIDIA, and NVIDIA continues to invest in OpenAI [4] - The potential government shutdown is a growing concern, with a 63% probability of a shutdown by October 1, as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain stalled [4][5] - Recent macroeconomic data showed a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 3.8% for Q2, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further, as inflation pressures appear more persistent than previously assessed [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing fluctuations, with the market adjusting to the prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The COMEX gold futures for September delivery decreased by 0.19%, settling at $3681.80 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.181 million at the end of July, marking a drop of 176,000 from the previous month, the lowest level in 10 months [1][2] - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The number of layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, with the private sector layoff rate rising to 1.3%, up from a historical low of 1% a year ago [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow down to 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in Q4 due to rising prices and a slowing job market, compared to a 1.6% increase in Q2 [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a job increase of 75,000, falling below the critical threshold of 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [4] - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the pace of future monetary easing, with some suggesting a potential rate cut of 25 basis points in September [4][6] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs and ongoing uncertainties is affecting hiring plans, with many companies likely to slow down recruitment until they have clarity on costs [2][5] - The current policy interest rate is seen as consistent with a fully employed labor market, but inflation remains a concern, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve regarding employment and price stability will influence future policy decisions, with a focus on data-driven assessments [6]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with investors remaining cautious due to mixed market signals affecting demand outlook [1] - The strong US dollar continues to weigh on base metals, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [1] - China's seasonal demand hopes support copper prices, with three-month copper rising by 0.36% to $9,769 per ton [1] Group 2 - Analysts from BMI indicated that weak PMI data from the EU and the US could reinforce current demand concerns, while unexpectedly strong data might provide temporary support [1] - Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, saw a 7.1% year-on-year increase in copper production in June [1] - China's refined copper production in July 2025 reached 1.27 million tons, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cumulative production from January to July at 8.623 million tons, up 9.9% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Indonesia's July refined tin exports increased by 11.2% year-on-year to 3,792.22 tons, but were lower than June's 4,465 tons [2] - Other base metals saw varied price movements, with three-month aluminum down 0.79% to $2,568 per ton, nickel down 0.4% to $15,090 per ton, zinc down 0.34% to $2,767.5 per ton, lead up 0.1% to $1,973 per ton, and tin up 0.39% to $33,835 per ton [2]

Core Insights - The silver price has declined to $38.00, ending a two-day rebound, influenced by a stronger US dollar [1] - July's Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a significant rise in inflation, with both overall and core PPI figures exceeding expectations [2][4] Market Analysis - Silver is consolidating between resistance at $38.50 and support at $37.50, with momentum shifting to neutral [3] - On Thursday, silver prices fell nearly 1.30%, trading close to $38.00, as the stronger-than-expected PPI and stable initial jobless claims data supported the dollar [3] - The dollar index has rebounded above the psychological level of 98.00 after a two-week low, prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [3] Inflation Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in July, marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022, significantly above the expected 0.2% [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI reached 3.3%, surpassing the anticipated 2.5% and accelerating from the previous 2.4% [4] Technical Analysis - On the 4-hour chart, silver is trading between resistance at $38.75 and support at $37.55, with bearish pressure emerging near recent highs [7] - The price has retreated to the convergence of the 50-day moving average at $38.01 and the 100-day moving average at $37.96, which is a critical level [7] - If silver continues to fall below this area, it may expose the lower boundary of the range, while a rebound could maintain the consolidation momentum [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish state, while the MACD shows signs of flattening after a bullish crossover, suggesting potential waning upward momentum [7]