1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Strongly [1][5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating Weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating Strongly [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term, oils and fats are likely to continue strong due to factors like increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil减产 season [1][5]. - The protein meal market may shift from a structure of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weak and far - term strong. The futures price is expected to strengthen gradually [6]. - Corn prices may face short - term uncertainty due to old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [7][8]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the industry [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to good macro sentiment and short - term fundamental support [13]. - Synthetic rubber prices may oscillate strongly in the short term as butadiene prices are likely to rise slightly [14]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and within the 5,600 - 5,900 yuan range in the short term [17]. - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate, with the main 11 - contract running in the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. - Log prices are expected to run within the 790 - 840 range, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, US soybeans and soybean oil rose due to technical buying. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend yesterday, with palm oil strong and soybean oil oscillating weakly [1][5]. - **Macro Environment**: The market has a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell [1][5]. - **Industrial Factors**: USDA's August report expects a record - high US soybean yield. US soybean exports face uncertainties due to Sino - US trade relations. US biodiesel demand for soybean oil is expected to increase, but this year's demand is down year - on - year. Palm oil is in the production season, with an expected high output in August. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, but imports from other regions may increase [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: US soybean good - quality rate is 68%. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has declined. CFTC's net short position in US soybeans has decreased. US soybeans are expected to oscillate around 1,050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The market recognizes near - term inventory pressure and far - term supply gaps. Some oil mills will conduct maintenance or reduce operating rates, and forward - purchase contracts are popular among downstream. The market should watch for Sino - US relations and hog industry impacts on demand [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Price Information**: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2,300 yuan/ton, and the domestic average corn price is 2,375 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually released, and demand is weak due to low profits in the livestock and deep - processing industries. Policy - related imports have a lower transaction rate. There may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, and new crop supply is expected to be abundant [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **Price Information**: On August 18, the price of Henan's live hogs (outer ternary) was 13.59 yuan/kg, and the futures closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply is increasing, and mid - term supply is expected to rise due to high sow capacity. Long - term supply may decrease due to anti - involution policies. Demand shows a stable pork - to - hog price ratio and an expanding premium for fat hogs. The industry has a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Price Information**: Qingdao Bonded Area's RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, and Thailand's raw material prices have declined [10][12]. - **Market Logic**: Rubber prices rose last Friday due to rumors of state reserves release and then adjusted. Seasonal factors and various rumors support price increases. Short - term supply may decrease, and demand is stable [13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Price Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has declined, and butadiene prices have shown a mixed trend [14]. - **Market Logic**: The BR futures followed the overall commodity market's decline. The market is influenced by natural rubber sentiment and butadiene supply shortages. Butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Cotton's 09 contract closed at 13,830 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 14,125 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Logic**: Positive factors include the extension of the suspension of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, a reduction in the US cotton output forecast, low domestic commercial inventories, and improved downstream demand. However, new - crop production is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the futures at 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Price Information**: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Sugar's 09 contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 5,672 yuan/ton [17]. - **Market Logic**: The market has revised down the forecast of Brazil's sugar production in the new season, which has adjusted the global sugar surplus expectation. The domestic market has limited downside space but faces supply pressure from imports [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **Price Information**: Shandong's coniferous pulp prices have shown a mixed trend [18]. - **Market Logic**: The pulp market has both positive and negative factors. Broad - leaf pulp has short - term rebound momentum, but long - term supply and demand are still a concern. The futures are expected to oscillate within the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Logic**: The market is trading based on the product's fundamentals. Positive factors include increased cost - side valuation and improved port arrival pressure. Negative factors include weak demand, undigested warehouse receipts, and new warehouse receipt registrations. The market is expected to run within the 790 - 840 range [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].