Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of US-China tariff policies has led to an increase in inventory accumulation by US buyers, resulting in heightened shipping activity on routes to the US, particularly through Shenzhen's Yantian Port, which handles over 25% of China's exports to the US [1][19]. Group 1: Shipping and Logistics Operations - Yantian Port is experiencing a surge in shipping activity, with companies urgently deploying additional vessels to accommodate increased cargo volumes [1][3]. - The peak shipping season has shifted from the traditional July-September timeframe to June and July this year, prompting logistics companies to optimize operations and increase resource allocation [3][5]. - The volume of goods waiting to be shipped has increased by over 60%, with the number of containers rising from around 120 to over 200 [5]. Group 2: Warehouse and Cargo Management - Warehouses are implementing emergency plans to enhance turnover efficiency, operating 24/7 to manage the increased shipping demand [7][12]. - The shipping volume from a cross-border e-commerce warehouse has surged from 40-50 containers daily to a peak of 70, with a 30% improvement in turnover efficiency [12][14]. - Companies have adapted their warehouse designs and operations to better handle the characteristics of e-commerce, such as small batch and multiple shipments [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The increase in shipping demand has led to rising freight rates on US routes, with some shipping companies announcing rate hikes of up to $3,000 for 40-foot containers [15]. - The logistics industry is observing a shift in shipping patterns, with some capacity being redirected to European and Latin American routes, which may affect the timing of shipments to the US [17]. - Many US merchants are utilizing a 90-day window to stock up on inventory, significantly increasing shipping demand and contributing to rising freight rates [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of port and shipping stocks driven by policy adjustments and the upcoming traditional shipping peak season, leading to a surge in stock prices and shipping indices [1][4] - The shipping index (European line) futures main contract rose to 2387 points, with a weekly increase of approximately 54% [1] - Analysts suggest that the adjustment of US-China tariff policies and the approach of the traditional shipping peak season are key drivers for the surge in the sector, with expectations of a pulse-like increase in cargo volume on Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes [1][4] Group 2 - Despite the sector's strong performance, several companies have issued risk warnings due to significant stock price fluctuations, with Nanjing Port announcing a cumulative price deviation of over 40% in just four trading days [2] - Lianyungang also issued multiple announcements regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations, reporting a 48.01% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [2][3] - Ningbo Shipping reported a significant drop in net profit for 2024, down 80.2% year-on-year, and warned investors about trading risks [3] Group 3 - The shipping and port sector has seen a strong market trend since May 14, with speculation that the tariff pause may lead to increased demand for shipping services [4] - Some analysts predict that the "rush to ship" phenomenon could drive freight rates to new highs in June, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [4][5] - Current freight rates remain weak, with the Shanghai shipping exchange reporting a slight decline in rates for exports to Europe, indicating potential challenges ahead for the industry [5]

Group 1 - After the latest adjustments in China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies have resumed their supply to the US market and restarted production and promotion of export products [1][7] - In Longgang, Zhejiang, a surge in foreign trade has been observed with numerous US orders returning, leading to a busy production environment in packaging companies [3] - A high-tech company focused on food packaging is currently rushing to fulfill a batch of orders worth nearly $200,000 for the US market [5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of reduced tariffs, many foreign trade companies in Xiamen, Fujian, received urgent order requests from US clients [7] - A packaging technology company in Zhejiang has prioritized US orders, aiming for rapid delivery within 90 days and plans to establish subsidiaries in Mexico and Europe to adapt to tariff measures [8] - A shoe company reported that over 60% of its overseas business comes from the US, and after the tariff adjustments, it has started shipping previously accumulated inventory and received numerous new orders [10][11] Group 3 - A textile export company in Xiamen is actively shipping out previously accumulated inventory worth 10 million yuan and has received new orders totaling $2.7 million [13] - The general manager of a textile import-export company in Fujian emphasized the need to diversify by developing markets in other countries and launching a domestic brand this year [15]

Group 1 - After the adjustment of China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies in China have resumed exports to the US, leading to a surge in orders for cross-border logistics companies, with a reported increase of over 30% in orders compared to usual levels [1][2] - In the logistics hub of Fuying community in Baoan District, Shenzhen, the operations are extremely busy, with goods needing to be shipped within 12 hours of arrival to meet delivery timelines of 8 to 12 days [1] - The increase in shipping volume has resulted in a slight rise in air freight prices, with expectations of further price increases as shipping volumes continue to recover [3] Group 2 - Logistics companies are experiencing a significant uptick in demand, with reports indicating a 30% to 40% increase in cargo volume, leading to more vehicles on the roads [3] - To mitigate risks associated with US tariffs, companies are considering establishing overseas warehouses to create a buffer for their operations [2][3] - The logistics sector is currently facing tight air freight capacity, prompting many freight companies to pre-book space for upcoming shipments [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US tariff policy adjustments have led to marginal improvements in the external environment. Although China's April social financing and credit data were weaker than market expectations, the financial system's support for the real economy remained strong. The stock index continued its upward trend, with the new regulations in the public fund industry driving the non-bank financial sector to lead the gains, further strengthening the performance of large-cap stock indices [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Policy Adjustments**: Since May 14th, China has suspended 28 US entities from the export control list and 17 from the unreliable entity list for 90 days. The US has revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods, implemented a 34% reciprocal tariff measure (with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained), and adjusted tariffs on small packages [1] - **Macroeconomic Data**: As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, M2 by 8%, and RMB loans by 7.2% (over 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement). The growth rates were significantly faster than the previous month [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: A-share indices opened higher and closed lower. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.86% to 3403.95 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. Most sector indices rose, with non-bank finance, transportation, and food and beverage leading the gains. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.3 trillion yuan. US stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising for three consecutive days [2] - **Futures Market**: The futures market's activity increased. The delivery of the current-month futures contracts is approaching, with the basis converging. Both trading volume and open interest increased [2] 2. Strategy - The synchronized tariff policy adjustments between China and the US have improved the external environment. Despite weak social financing and credit data in April, the financial system's support for the real economy remains strong. The stock index's upward trend continues, and the non-bank financial sector's strength, driven by new regulations in the public fund industry, has further boosted large-cap stock indices [3] 3. Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A-share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share style trends [6][8][11] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On May 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.86% to 3403.95, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64% to 10354.22, the ChiNext Index rose 1.01% to 2083.14, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.21% to 3943.21, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.87% to 2753.79, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.30% to 5799.12, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.15% to 6160.37 [13] - **Other Indicators**: The charts also show the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][14] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract increased by 56,184 to 139,424, and the open interest increased by 25,069 to 273,673 [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of the futures contracts showed different changes. For instance, the current-month basis of the IF contract was -0.21, an increase of 4.05 [39] - **Other Indicators**: The charts also display the open interest, open interest ratio, and net open interest of foreign investors for each contract [6]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Cotton, Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: May 12, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13380, up 255, with a trading volume of 44,743 hands (an increase of 26328 hands) and an open interest of 101,668 (an increase of 12990) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 12980, up 295, with a trading volume of 2,819 hands (a decrease of 438 hands) and an open interest of 34,297 (a decrease of 234) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13240, up 290, with a trading volume of 382,405 hands (an increase of 223703 hands) and an open interest of 582,792 (an increase of 8708) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19500, up 320, with a trading volume of 3 hands (an increase of 2 hands) and an open interest of 9 (an increase of 1) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18650, unchanged, with a trading volume of 0 hands (a decrease of 6 hands) and an open interest of 160 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19430, up 325, with a trading volume of 189 hands (a decrease of 13 hands) and an open interest of 1309 (a decrease of 30) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 14122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.25 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.97 cents/pound, down 0.70 cents/pound [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan/ton [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 21924 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton [3] - Indian S - 6 was priced at 54600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was priced at 11040 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was priced at 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 400, down 40; 5 - 9 spread was - 260, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 140, up 35 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 850, up 320; 5 - 9 spread was - 780, down 325; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6120, up 65; CY05 - CF05 was 5670, down 295; CY09 - CF09 was 6190, up 35 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 223, up 110; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was - 428, up 75; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1624, down 701 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From May 10 - 11, 2025, China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of the reciprocal tariffs, with 24% suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. China made corresponding adjustments [5] - As of May 9, 2025, Xinjiang's cotton sowing was nearly finished, with the planting area stable at about 36 million mu [5] - As of May 2, 2025, ON - CALL 2507 contract's seller un - priced contracts decreased by 469 to 18420, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. 24/25 annual seller un - priced contracts decreased by 609 to 18483, equivalent to 420,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week. ICE seller un - priced contracts increased to 50451, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, an increase of 1165 (30,000 tons) week - on - week [6] Trading Logic - The China - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. The US will modify tariff policies. The macro - level tariff policy is better than expected, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to open higher and strengthen in the short term [7] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger due to macro - level influence [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The China - US negotiation progressed smoothly, but the overall demand for cotton grey cloth was insufficient, with slow sales and increasing inventory in weaving factories. Some spinning mills raised cotton yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, but the market was in the off - season with weak downstream demand. Macro - level benefits may push cotton prices higher, and cotton yarn prices will follow but with a smaller increase [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On May 12, 2025, for CF509C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 256.00, up 30.6%, IV was 11.9% [12] - For CF509P12600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 131.00, down 46.3%, IV was 13.5% [12] - For CF509P12200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13240.00, the closing price was 73.00, down 41.6%, IV was 14.8% [12] Volatility and Market Sentiment - On May 12, 2025, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.5629, with a slight increase. The main contract's position PCR was 0.8529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7283. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased, and the market's bearish sentiment was obvious [12][13] Option Strategy - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][21][26]