1. 这周全球股票市场整体上涨。 全球股票市场上涨1.4%。 A股中证全指连续几天上涨，本周上涨2.78%，回到了4.1星，收复了11月的绝大多数回撤。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 看下周恢复交易后是不是补涨一些。 前几周市场下跌的时候，当时也提到过，是因为市场短期流动性收紧导致的波动， 一旦流动性宽松后市场也会恢复起来。 2. 除了A股本周上涨，最近人民币也明显升值。 人民币兑美元汇率重回7.0。 也有朋友问，这对咱们投资有啥影响呢？ （1）汇率也是成周期波动的。 汇率周期跟利率周期有一定重合。 一般在美元降息周期，美元相对全球其他货币贬值，美元指数下降。 美元加息周期，则会反过来。容易看到美元相对其他货币升值。 港股因为周四周五放假，本周略微上涨。 例如： 2021-2022年美联储大幅加息，同期美元汇率大幅提升，美元相对全球其他货币，升值大约25-30%。 2024年9月，美联储首次降息。2025年美元继续了降息周期。仅今年美元相对全球其他货币，贬值就有百分之几。 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 险。例如币场波动风险，如果高估了， 之后波动回撤会比较大。 不过，个股还多了经营上的风险:没有 哪一家公司，是长生不老的。 每个公司都会有自己的生命周期，会生 老病死，而指数具备新陈代谢的能力。 之前在美股的统计数据： ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ·美股历史最悠久的道琼斯指数，最初的 那批成分股，至今，已经没有一家还在 当前的道琼斯指数中。 ·从1926年到2016年，整个美股的涨 幅，主要是其中表现最好的4%的股票贡 献的。 如果有个股投资能力（这样的投资者是 少数）可以选出那4%的股票，获得丰厚 的回报。这样的投资者也有,例如股神 巴菲特,例如知名其余经理彼得·林奇。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices and U.S. Treasury indices, highlighting the recent performance of global stock markets and the impact of U.S. interest rates on asset prices [1][10]. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market saw a significant increase, with indices returning to a rating of 3.2 stars [5][6]. - Major stock markets, including U.S., European, Hong Kong, and Japanese markets, all experienced gains exceeding 3% [7]. - A global stock index combination reached a new high since its inception [8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Market Movements - The recent rise in global stock markets is attributed to the easing of tariff crises and a decline in U.S. dollar interest rates [10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased from approximately 4.48% to 4.27% over a few weeks [15]. - Lower interest rates are beneficial for global asset prices, similar to past instances when the Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts [16][17]. Group 3: Impact on A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - The decline in U.S. interest rates positively affects A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with A-shares rising over 30% since the Fed's first rate cut last September [20]. - The Hang Seng Index increased by 43%, outperforming the global average [21][23]. - The valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks was significantly lower than the global average, providing a clear valuation advantage [23]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates to historical averages (2-3%), it will further benefit A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [26]. - Potential volatility may arise from U.S. tariff actions, similar to the fluctuations seen in early April [27]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which are not yet accessible in mainland China [31]. - A "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, diversifying investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [33]. - Current investment limits for overseas market funds in mainland China are relatively low, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [35].

Group 1 - The 2025 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting has concluded, with Warren Buffett hinting at succession plans, marking a significant moment as it may be his last meeting as the main speaker [1] - The article highlights the importance of understanding Greg Abel, Buffett's designated successor, as he will officially take over by the end of the year [1] - A recommended reading discusses Buffett's insights on how to make significant profits in the stock market, emphasizing the value of his teachings [1] Group 2 - Howard Marks provides timeless advice for ordinary investors, emphasizing the importance of recognizing one's limitations and staying in the market in a sustainable manner [2] - The article mentions that stock assets are currently a favorable choice, with two main investment themes worth attention [2] - The latest insights from Novo Nordisk's CEO focus on selectively building core competencies, particularly targeting advancements in the insulin sector [2]