Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

The Dow hit its highest levels on record even though the Institute for Supply Management's services sector survey fell unexpectedly. The Dow was up 405 points, or 0.9%, and setting fresh intraday records. The S&P 500 was up 0.3% and also hitting its highest levels on record. The Nasdaq Composite was up slightly. All three only need to close higher to set fresh closing records. The ISM's services purchasing managers index fell to a 50 reading in September from 52 in August. Economists polled by FactSet antic ...

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit complex and divergent trends, with the US market continuing to reach new highs driven by strong performance in technology and small-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices show notable gains, while the Dow Jones index experiences a slight increase, supported by robust corporate earnings and positive developments in the AI sector [1][3] - In contrast, European markets show weakness, with the UK FTSE 100 index slightly up, while the German DAX and French CAC 40 indices both decline, reflecting concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty in the region [1][3] Commodity Performance - Gold prices have significantly risen, indicating strong demand, while WTI crude oil prices are under pressure due to expectations of increased supply [1][4] - The reopening of a major pipeline in Iraq has heightened supply concerns, contributing to a decline in oil prices [4] Key Indices and Movements - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.44% to 6,693.75, while the Dow Jones rose by 0.14% to 46,381.54 [4] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a rise of 0.55% to 22,788.98, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.60% to 2,463.34 [4] - European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 experienced declines of 0.48% and 0.30%, respectively, indicating a bearish sentiment in the region [4] Investor Sentiment - Overall, investors maintain a defensive stance with limited risk appetite, as evidenced by the mixed performance across global markets [3] - The focus for upcoming trading days will be on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy and key inflation data [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the start of a global easing trend, which will impact various asset prices and investment strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Different Asset Classes - Historical data from 1970 shows that during global easing cycles, the return hierarchy is: equities > gold > bonds > US dollar > other commodities [5]. - In the context of the US economy, the prevailing view on Wall Street is a mild recession, with the current rate cut being termed as "preemptive" to ensure a soft landing [5][6]. Group 2: A-shares and H-shares - A-shares and H-shares have experienced six instances of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with three being "preemptive" (1995, 1998, 2019), showing inconsistent market responses [6]. - For example, during the 1995 rate cut, the Shanghai Composite Index initially rose but then fell significantly, while in 1998, it showed a clear upward trend [7]. - The H-share market tends to respond more positively to rate cuts due to its sensitivity to US dollar liquidity, benefiting from the influx of capital when the Fed eases [10]. Group 3: Bonds - Bonds generally appreciate during rate cut cycles, with long-term bonds showing more significant gains compared to short-term ones [8]. - The logic is straightforward: a rate cut leads to lower bond yields, which in turn raises bond prices [8][17]. Group 4: Gold - While many factors influence gold prices, historical evidence suggests that "preemptive" rate cuts have a limited impact on gold, although its financial and anti-inflation properties remain strong [12]. Group 5: US Stocks - Historically, during five instances of "preemptive" rate cuts, major US stock indices have generally risen, with an average increase of over 17% across various periods [15][16]. - The most recent preemptive cut in 2019 saw modest gains in major indices, indicating that while returns can be positive, they may vary significantly based on economic conditions [15]. Group 6: US Dollar Index - The relationship between rate cuts and the US dollar index is complex; while rate cuts can reduce the dollar's attractiveness, a stronger US economy can still support a rising dollar [20][21]. - Historical data shows mixed results for the dollar index during rate cut cycles, with three instances of decline and one of increase [22].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2% this week [2][3] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline by 4 basis points [2] - Commodity prices saw a decrease in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling by 1.7% and 0.9% respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve: A U.S. District Court judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to potentially attend the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - European Central Bank: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate cuts, with little change in inflation outlook [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Inflation in the U.S. showed moderate growth, with the CPI year-on-year increase rising to 2.9%. Core CPI remained stable, but a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points was noted [9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - The NFIB small business confidence index reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025, driven by a significant increase in new orders [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - France: The government faced a crisis as Prime Minister Borne resigned after losing parliamentary confidence, with the new Prime Minister likely to struggle for majority support [21] - Germany: Industrial production showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, indicating potential for recovery despite ongoing challenges [21]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has opened the door for potential interest rate cuts as early as next month, indicating a shift in economic outlook due to a possible significant slowdown in the labor market and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [1][2][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell noted that the balance of risks is changing, with the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates [1][3]. - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady this year, citing a robust labor market and uncertainty regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1][2]. Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer and is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising questions about whether these price increases will lead to persistent inflation risks [2][4]. - He expressed greater confidence that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but warned that rising costs could lead to a wage-price spiral if workers successfully negotiate higher wages [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, traders increased bets on a rate cut in September, with the probability now exceeding 90%, up from about 75% before his remarks [5]. - U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, while the dollar index fell below 98 [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts believe Powell's dovish stance indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, driven by labor market weaknesses rather than tariff-induced price increases [7][8]. - Powell's commitment to data-driven policy decisions reflects a response to political pressures, emphasizing that monetary policy will not follow a predetermined path [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariffs, prompting multiple countries to engage in last-minute negotiations [1] - Nationwide anti-government protests have erupted in Ukraine, marking the first such occurrence since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - Current market signals indicate continued selling pressure on WTI crude oil, while gold remains favored by bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish sentiment of 45% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 81% and a bearish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 82% and bearish sentiment of 18% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 84% and bearish sentiment of 16% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 7% and bearish sentiment of 93% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 18% and bearish sentiment of 82% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 25% and bearish sentiment of 75% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 93% and bearish sentiment of 7% [3]

Group 1 - Powell faces criminal charges, while the White House states that Trump has no plans to dismiss Powell [1] - New round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for tomorrow, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Israel has launched large-scale airstrikes against Houthi forces, reflecting regional conflicts [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment shows a stalemate in gold trading, with signals indicating potential sell-off in WTI crude oil [1] - The sentiment in various indices shows a mixed outlook, with the S&P 500 at 71% bullish and 29% bearish, while the Nasdaq is evenly split at 50% [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro against the Dollar shows a significant bearish sentiment at 77% [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June is set to be released, with market focus on the impact and duration of tariffs, indicating that price pressures are expected to become more evident, which could delay the Federal Reserve's easing measures [1] - Current market sentiment shows a dominance of bullish positions in gold, while silver is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and WTI crude oil is signaling a sell-off [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 40% and bearish sentiment of 60% [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% against a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a bullish sentiment of 38% and bearish sentiment of 62% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 54% and bearish sentiment of 46% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 76% and bearish sentiment of 24% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 57% and bearish sentiment of 43% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a significant bearish sentiment of 87% against a bullish sentiment of 13% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 92% and bullish sentiment of 8% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% against a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 28% and bearish sentiment of 72% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 68% and bearish sentiment of 32% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 28% and bearish sentiment of 72% [3] - The USD/CAD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 34% and bearish sentiment of 66% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 88% against a bearish sentiment of 12% [3]

Group 1 - The tariff negotiations have reached a critical stage, with investors awaiting clarity on the tariff situation [1] - Market sentiment regarding gold remains cautious, with both bullish and bearish positions maintaining a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 73% and bearish sentiment of 27% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 83% and a bearish sentiment of 17% [3] - The Dow Jones Index reflects a bearish sentiment of 76% against a bullish sentiment of 24% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows an even split with 50% bullish and 50% bearish sentiment [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 52% and bearish sentiment of 48% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 82% and a bullish sentiment of 18% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bearish sentiment of 81% and a bullish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment of 92% against a bullish sentiment of 8% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 92% and a bearish sentiment of 8% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bearish sentiment of 85% and a bullish sentiment of 15% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 69% and a bullish sentiment of 31% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 58% and a bullish sentiment of 42% [3] - The USD/CAD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 70% and a bearish sentiment of 30% [3] - The USD/CHF pair shows a significant bearish sentiment of 93% against a bullish sentiment of 7% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and a bearish sentiment of 40% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 62% and a bearish sentiment of 38% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 70% and a bullish sentiment of 30% [4] - The NZD/USD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 56% and a bearish sentiment of 44% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair shows a bearish sentiment of 60% and a bullish sentiment of 40% [4] - The USD/CNH pair has a bullish sentiment of 62% and a bearish sentiment of 38% [4]