证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 中东突变，大类资产如何演绎 [Table_Summary] 2026年 2月 28日，美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起"先发 制人"的军事打击，随后伊朗宣布将对以色列发动"毁灭性 打击"，同时也对美国在中东部署的军事基地予以还击，28 日 阿联酋、巴林、科威特、沙特等海湾多国均发生爆炸，中东 区域地缘冲突全面加剧并扩散。 ►以史为鉴，"涨在预期，卖在现实" 面对突如其来的纷争升级，各类资产将如何演绎，"战争 时长"或是决定行情发酵程度的关键变量。回顾历史，美方 在中东区域主导的战争往往以两种形式收场，其一为闪电 战，如 2025 年 6 月的伊以冲突；一旦闪电战无法取得决定性 突破，战争便会演变成第二类结果，拉锯战，典型案例为 2003 年 3 月的伊拉克战争。 战争冲突对资产价格的影响，基本呈现"涨在预期，卖 在现实"的特征。如果冲突爆发突然，之前的市场预期并不 充分，可能在开战首个交易日，资产价格大幅脉冲，而随后 涨跌势均收窄，甚至逆转。战争开启之后，各类资产价格的 走向，与市场对战争持续时长的预 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad rally on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.26% [2] - Bitcoin surged nearly 8%, approaching the $70,000 mark during intraday trading [2] Market Sentiment - The day was characterized as a "reset day" for market sentiment rather than a "turning point" [3] - The VIX index saw a significant decline, indicating reduced volatility in tech stocks [4] - There was a notable "dead cat bounce" in software stocks, suggesting a temporary recovery [4] Lack of Catalysts - The market lacked a unified trading theme or catalyst, leading to a natural rebound in sentiment without a specific focus [5] - Trump's State of the Union address did not generate significant market reaction as it did not introduce new policies [6] - There were no major economic data releases or significant comments from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [7] Psychological State - The current market psychology is characterized by relief rather than greed, with investors feeling thankful that conditions are not worse [8] - The focus moving forward will be on whether the upward trend can continue, which would enhance risk appetite in the market [8]

Core Insights - Global capital markets experienced a majority increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with indices in countries like South Korea, the UK, and France reaching historical highs [1] - The situation surrounding Trump's tariffs remains uncertain, and the outlook for US-Iran conflict appears increasingly pessimistic, contributing to significant rises in international gold, silver, and oil prices, with silver increasing nearly 17% [1] Market Performance Summary - **Dow Jones Index**: Decreased by 1.31% from 49,451.98 to 48,804.06 [2] - **Nasdaq Index**: Slight increase of 0.13% from 22,597.15 to 22,627.27 [2] - **S&P 500 Index**: Marginal increase of 0.07% from 6,832.76 to 6,837.75 [2] - **Hang Seng Index**: Increased by 2.30% from 26,472.19 to 27,081.93 [2] - **Hang Seng Tech Index**: Increased by 1.11% from 5,326.23 to 5,385.35 [2] - **Nikkei 225 Index**: Decreased by 0.20% from 56,941.97 to 56,825.70 [2] - **KOSPI (Korea Composite Index)**: Increased by 6.16% from 5,507.03 to 5,846.09, reaching a new high [2] - **DAX (Germany)**: Increased by 0.54% from 24,852.69 to 24,986.58 [2] - **CAC 40 (France)**: Increased by 1.90% from 8,340.56 to 8,499.01, briefly reaching a new high [2] - **FTSE 100 (UK)**: Increased by 2.71% from 10,402.44 to 10,684.74, briefly reaching a new high [2] Commodity Price Changes - **London Gold Spot**: Increased by 5.87% from 4,946.12 to 5,236.38 [2] - **London Silver Spot**: Increased by 16.81% from 76.11 to 88.91 [2] - **ICE Brent Crude Oil**: Increased by 5.48% from 67.54 to 71.24 [2] - **WTI Crude Oil**: Increased by 6.05% from 62.65 to 66.44 [2] Futures and Cryptocurrency - **A50 Futures**: Increased by 1.00% from 14,719.00 to 14,866.00 [2] - **Bitcoin**: Decreased by 6.74% from 69,129.99 to 64,473.14 [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.22%, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum despite some positive economic signals [2] - Gold and U.S. Treasury bonds both rose, with gold reclaiming the $5000 mark and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.04%, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty [2] - The Nasdaq index is approaching critical support levels, with significant resistance at 25200, 25600, and 26000, while the key support level is at 24400 [2] Group 2 - Recent non-farm payroll and CPI data were positive, but concerns about AI risks have emerged, suggesting that market volatility may be driven by factors beyond macroeconomic indicators [3] - The report titled "Global Market Notes: A Major Change is Coming" suggests that the current calm in the market is deceptive, with significant shifts expected in the near future [4] - Predictions regarding commodities such as gold, silver, and copper indicate the potential for a multi-year bull market, with specific forecasts for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and currency movements included [4][5] Group 3 - Wall Street has identified 13 Chinese stocks as favorable, with 5 receiving overweight ratings, indicating a positive outlook for certain sectors within the Chinese market [6]

Core Insights - The market has shifted from a "worst-case scenario" to a phase of "waiting for validation" as U.S. stock markets experience a broad rally, with the Dow Jones index rising over 1% [2] - Economic data, particularly the ISM manufacturing index for January at 52.6, significantly exceeded market expectations of 48.5, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion and marking the highest level since 2022 [2] - This positive economic data alleviates three major market fears: concerns over a "hard landing," the stabilization of profit bottoms, and the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation without rushing to intervene in the market [3] Market Reactions - The rise in U.S. stock markets has restored "missing confidence," which is crucial for mitigating the current global market downturn [2] - Gold and silver markets began to rebound after passive selling subsided, indicating a temporary recovery rather than a return of bullish sentiment [3] - The current market calm does not imply that issues have been resolved; rather, it suggests that problems are being postponed for later resolution [3] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a "repair phase," transitioning from panic to recovery, but caution is advised as misjudging the market's direction could be dangerous [3] - There is a call for deeper insights into global markets, suggesting that assumptions about January's direction continuing into February may be misleading [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector has shown strong bullish momentum at the beginning of the year, with gold making a significant upward gap that has not been filled, serving as a springboard for further price increases [1][4] - Spot gold is making a strong push towards the psychological barrier of $4500 per ounce, driven by sudden fluctuations in geopolitical situations that have led to a surge in safe-haven investments in the commodity market [1][4] - Silver has outperformed gold, with a cumulative increase of over 10% since the beginning of the week, closing above the important level of $80 per ounce [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are also participating in the upward trend, with platinum and palladium rising in high correlation with silver [4] - Copper futures have reached a historical peak of $6 per pound, supported by expectations of global infrastructure and industrial recovery [4] Group 3: Energy Market - The energy market is experiencing a divergence in price trends, with Brent crude oil falling to around $60 per barrel, influenced by unexpected supply increases from Venezuela [2][4] - Major energy companies like Chevron have seen their stock prices quickly retreat after initial surges, indicating a cautious attitude from investors towards the oil sector [2][4] Group 4: Equity Market - The U.S. stock market shows high risk appetite, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching historical highs and closing above 49,000 points [2][5] - The S&P 500 index has also set new records, while the semiconductor sector, particularly companies like SanDisk and Micron Technology, has seen significant gains of 28% and 10% respectively, indicating positive changes in demand within the semiconductor cycle [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including December ADP employment figures and ISM services PMI, to assess whether the U.S. economy can support current high valuations [3][5] - The current market environment is characterized by a coexistence of high returns and high volatility, prompting the need for strict risk control measures while pursuing opportunities in metal price rebounds and U.S. stock trends [3][5]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index surged by 16% last year, driven by economic resilience, interest rate cuts, and the AI boom, achieving 39 record highs [1][2] - Analysts predict continued growth, with Bank of America forecasting the S&P 500 to reach 7,100 points by year-end, a 3.7% increase from 2025's closing level [1][2] - Some investors express caution due to the rapid rise, noting an approximately 80% increase in the S&P 500 from the beginning of 2023 to New Year's Eve, which is often unsustainable [1][2] - Strong corporate earnings growth is anticipated, with analysts expecting a 15% increase in profits for S&P 500 companies this year, marking the highest annual growth rate since 2021 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inherent risks associated with individual stocks compared to indices, emphasizing that no company is immune to operational risks and that all companies have a lifecycle. Indices, however, have the ability to adapt and evolve over time [2]. Group 1 - Historical data from the U.S. stock market indicates that the original components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average have all been replaced over time, highlighting the transient nature of individual companies [2]. - From 1926 to 2016, the overall growth of the U.S. stock market was primarily driven by the top 4% of performing stocks, suggesting that identifying these stocks can lead to substantial returns [2]. - Successful investors, such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch, exemplify the ability to select high-performing stocks, which is a rare skill among investors [2].

Core Points - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.2% [1] - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.3% [1] - The Nasdaq index declined by 0.1% [1]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global commodity prices have declined, with major stock markets showing mixed results; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 3% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly increased, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining stable compared to last week [2] - Oil prices decreased, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling by 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing divisions regarding interest rate cuts, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting key inflation data; some officials advocate for a cautious approach while others see inflation as a more pressing concern [5] - The European Central Bank announced that Bulgaria will adopt the euro on January 1, 2026, with the central bank governor gaining voting rights on the governing council [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to the potential reversal of $100 billion in tariff revenue [9] - Recent local elections indicate a resurgence for the Democratic Party, with victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City [9] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined to 50.3, close to historical lows, due to the ongoing government shutdown and its negative impacts [10] - The liquidity situation in the U.S. is tightening, with the SOFR rate spiking to 4.22% and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction potentially exacerbating the funding shortage [10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization with an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, although layoffs in certain sectors remain a concern [11] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, driven by weak demand for fuel and non-food items, while food and beverage sales remained stable [18] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady at 50%, indicating slight recovery, but new export orders and employment levels continue to decline [18]