文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 本周全球股票市场大幅下跌。 不过本周下来，全球股票市场仍然下跌超2%。 亚太、欧洲市场的波动更大一些。 A股港股、韩股、日股、等，本周波动超4%。 港股科技、恒生科技也在周五收盘后，回到了低估。 除了股票市场出现波动，其他资产大类也波动比较大： ·黄金从高点回调7-8%。原油等商品价格下跌更多。 ·虚拟货币一天下跌9%。 货币、短债本身波动比较小，不太受流动性危机的影响。 其他风险资产，本周波动都比较大。 周一到周四，全球股票市场下跌近3%， 周五晚上全球股票市场出现了反弹。 2. 通常不同资产大类不会同涨同跌。 市场担心，如果12月不降息，未来半年可能缺少降息机会。 加上临近年底12月，本身市场流动性就会紧张一些，导致最近的流动性危机。 3. 流动性危机出现的时候，不同资产大类的相关性会变强，一起出现波动。 其中像小盘股、成长股、虚拟货币等，对流动性更敏感。 最近小盘股指数，以及创业板科创板、纳斯达克、恒生科技等成长风格指数，虚拟货币， ...

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with the US market down by 1.59% and other global markets down by 0.58% [3] - The Asia-Pacific region saw significant volatility, particularly with declines in South Korea and Japan [4] - Chinese assets remained relatively strong, with the A-share CSI All Share Index rising by 0.63% for three consecutive weeks [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.29% this week [7] - Chinese assets are currently valued slightly lower than the global market average, providing a degree of protection against potential downturns [8] Group 3 - Market fluctuations this week were primarily driven by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [9] - The Federal Reserve did lower rates in October, but the decision for December remains uncertain [10] - Long-term expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates [11] Group 4 - The US stock market reached a high valuation at the end of October and early November, marking the first instance of overvaluation in the past year [12][13] - Following this, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices have seen a valuation correction, returning to a normal but slightly elevated level [14][15] Group 5 - Current valuations in the US stock market are not particularly low, but they do not indicate a significant bubble [16] - Historical comparisons show that the Nasdaq's valuation during the 1990s internet bubble exceeded 100 times, whereas it currently hovers around 30 times [17] Group 6 - There are two types of bear markets: one occurring during economic recessions with slow or declining corporate earnings, and another during periods of normal economic growth with short bear markets [18] - The US stock market has experienced long bear markets following the bursting of bubbles, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [19][20] Group 7 - Despite the potential for future economic downturns and long bear markets, the US stock market has shown relatively good earnings growth in recent years, primarily experiencing short bear markets [24] - Current valuations in the US stock market are not low enough to present significant buying opportunities [25] Group 8 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued during previous periods in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with current ratings around 3.0 stars, suggesting a relatively low valuation [27] - The global stock index can be accessed through various funds, although there are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China [29] Group 9 - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [30] - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for overseas market funds, typically capped at around 100 yuan [32] Group 10 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been influential in the investment field for over 30 years [35] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and provides extensive data on asset class returns over the past two centuries [36]

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced slight fluctuations this week, with A-shares slightly up by 0.41% and European markets generally down [2][3][4] - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase of over 20% this month, attributed to the APEC summit, following a period of undervaluation [4][5] - Since the Federal Reserve entered a rate-cutting cycle in September last year, global stock markets have benefited from increased liquidity, leading to higher valuations [6][7] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in October, aligning with market expectations, but indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [8][9][10] - Market concerns arose regarding the potential uncertainty of a December rate cut, with current expectations placing the probability at around 50-60% [12] - Long-term projections suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower rates, as the current rate of around 4% is considered too high for the dollar [14][15] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, reported a record cash reserve of 381.67 billion yuan in Q3 [18][26] - Buffett's investment strategy is influenced by Benjamin Graham, focusing on increasing stock allocations when markets are undervalued and shifting to cash and bonds when markets are overvalued [19][20] - Over the past two years, as U.S. stocks have risen, Buffett has found fewer buying opportunities, leading to a continuous increase in cash and bond holdings [21][24] Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that previous undervaluation phases occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the current rating around 2.9 stars [33][34] - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been launched to simulate similar investment effects [36][37] Group 5 - The newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has topped sales charts, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [42][43] - The book includes updated data over nearly 30 years and introduces new chapters, reinforcing the idea that stocks are the best long-term investment tool [42][43]

Group 1 - The global stock market rose by 1.5% this week, with significant gains in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the A-share CSI All Share Index, which surged by 3.3%, and the Hang Seng Index, which increased by 3.6% [3][4]. - European stock markets experienced slight increases, while U.S. stocks also saw overall gains, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new high for the year [5][6][7]. - Despite the rise in index points, valuations have not yet reached previous highs, indicating a close proximity to overvaluation [9][10]. Group 2 - The global stock market has largely recovered from the volatility caused by the recent tariff crisis involving Trump, with the main pressure on U.S. dollar assets stemming from the large scale of U.S. national debt and its interest payments [14]. - The potential for lower inflation in the U.S. could facilitate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although increased tariffs may lead to higher inflation, complicating the rate cut scenario [15][16]. - The tariff issues have primarily resulted in short-term market fluctuations, which have subsequently provided buying opportunities [19][20]. Group 3 - The U.S. released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, showing a slower-than-expected year-on-year growth rate, which increases the likelihood of continued declines in U.S. interest rates [21][22]. - Market expectations are rising for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in October, contributing to the recent uptick in global stock markets [23][24]. - A decrease in U.S. interest rates would positively impact global stock market valuations, particularly benefiting non-U.S. markets [26][27]. Group 4 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that after a significant drop in early April 2025, the market rebounded to a rating of 4.1-4.2 stars, currently hovering around 2.9 stars [31]. - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, with substantial assets exceeding one trillion dollars, although such funds are not yet available in mainland China [34]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [35]. Group 5 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been a bestseller for 30 years and includes updated data and new chapters [40]. - The book emphasizes that, over the long term, stock assets are the best means of wealth accumulation, suggesting that households should allocate a certain proportion of their assets to stocks [41]. - It also highlights the challenges ordinary investors face in achieving long-term returns from stock investments due to the inherent volatility of stock assets [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, the impact of tariffs and interest rates, and investment opportunities in gold and dollar-denominated bonds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced minor fluctuations recently, with a slight rebound noted on Friday [2][4]. - Trump's comments on tariffs and the increasing probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have influenced market movements [3][7]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with potential for continued volatility [9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Gold has shown strong performance since 2022, but its current valuation may not be as attractive as before, leading to increased volatility [11][12]. - Dollar-denominated bonds have seen a rise in valuation since the tariff crisis began in October, with recent performance outpacing that of comparable RMB-denominated bond funds [14][18]. - The article suggests that dollar-denominated bond funds are generally low in valuation and may present good investment opportunities, especially during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [12][18]. Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate Risks - Investing in dollar-denominated bond funds in mainland China may expose investors to currency risks, particularly if the dollar depreciates against the yuan [22][23]. - The article highlights that while dollar-denominated bond indices have shown gains of 6-7% in USD terms, the returns in RMB terms are lower, around 3-5% [24][25]. Group 4: Global Stock Index and Investment Strategies - The article presents a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation and potential investment opportunities [29]. - Currently, the global stock market is rated around 3.0 stars, suggesting a moderate investment environment [30]. - The article mentions the absence of global stock index funds in mainland China, but suggests that a diversified investment strategy can be achieved through advisory combinations [32][33]. Group 5: New Book Release - A new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for long-term wealth accumulation [38][39]. - The book is recognized for its comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and their long-term returns, reinforcing the notion that stocks are the best investment for wealth growth [40].

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced an overall increase this week, particularly outside the US, where gains exceeded 2% [2][4][28] - European markets, including France and Germany, saw significant increases, generally surpassing 2% [5] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong rose by 3.88%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 6.9%, marking its largest weekly gain in six months [7][8] Group 2 - The US stock market showed only slight gains, with the recent employment data indicating a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, contrasting with market expectations of an increase [3][14] - This disappointing employment data may suggest potential signs of economic recession or stagnation, although it is not definitive [15][16] - If economic data continues to underperform, it could lead to a decrease in US dollar interest rates, benefiting asset valuations [19][23] Group 3 - The decline in the US dollar index this week is favorable for non-US assets, as a weaker dollar typically enhances the attractiveness of these investments [25][26][28] - The A-share market remained closed during this period, but both Hong Kong stocks and US-listed Chinese companies saw substantial increases, reflecting the positive sentiment from the anticipated decline in US interest rates [30][31] Group 4 - Historical data indicates that the global stock market has previously entered undervalued phases, with current valuations around 3.0 stars, suggesting potential investment opportunities [38] - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but the company offers a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across various markets [41][42] Group 5 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been highly influential in the investment field for over 30 years, emphasizing the importance of stock assets for wealth accumulation [47][48] - The book provides extensive data on the long-term returns of various asset classes, reinforcing the notion that stocks are the best long-term investment tool [48][49]

Global Market Overview - The global stock market experienced a slight decline this week, with US and global stock indices down by 0.4-0.5% [2] - The A-share market remained resilient, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1%, leading global gains [3] - European and Asia-Pacific stock markets generally saw declines, with notable volatility in markets like India, which dropped by 2.6% [5][6] Tariff Concerns - Increased volatility in global stock markets was noted in the latter half of the week, linked to Trump's renewed tariff discussions [7] - Starting October 1, tariffs of 50% will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathrooms, and building materials, 30% on imported furniture, and 100% on patented and branded pharmaceuticals [8] - These tariff announcements have raised short-term market concerns, particularly affecting markets with high export ratios [9][10] Historical Context - A previous tariff crisis in April led to a significant undervaluation of the global stock market, which was later seen as a good investment opportunity [14][15] - The global stock market indices recovered from the April lows, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading the recovery from May to August [19][20] Impact of Tariffs on the Dollar - The increase in tariffs is viewed as a double-edged sword for the dollar, potentially hindering inflation reduction and affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [21][22] - High tariffs are primarily seen as negotiation tools rather than final objectives, with limited actual implementation expected [24][25] Investment Opportunities - The current market fluctuations may present opportunities for undervalued assets, similar to the investment phase following the April tariff crisis [28][29] - A global stock market star rating chart indicates previous undervaluation phases in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with the market currently around 3.0 stars [30][31] Global Index Investment Options - There are substantial global stock index funds available in overseas markets, totaling over a trillion dollars, but such options are limited in mainland China [33] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices [34] Book Release - A new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has gained significant popularity, ranking first in sales on major platforms [39] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides comprehensive insights into market knowledge and strategies [40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of global stock markets, the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the behavioral patterns of retail investors that often lead to losses during bull markets. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock market indices experienced an overall increase this week [2] - The US stock market rose by 1.2% this week [3] - Non-US markets saw a slight increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has positively impacted the market [5] - However, the benefits of rate cuts are often anticipated before the actual announcement [6] - Markets had already priced in the expectation of rate cuts in July and August, leading to significant gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - The statement that bull markets are a primary reason for retail investor losses may seem counterintuitive but reflects reality [13] - Investors tend to open accounts and invest during bull markets, often at high prices, leading to losses when the market corrects [20][21] - The tendency to chase rising stocks and sell during downturns contributes to retail investor losses [25] Group 4: Trading Frequency and Investment Strategy - Frequent trading can lead to missed opportunities, especially in a structurally bullish market where different sectors lead at different times [26] - Investors who trade based on short-term movements may find themselves losing money despite overall market gains [32] - A shift from a trading mindset to a business ownership mindset is recommended for better long-term investment outcomes [36] Group 5: Global Stock Market Valuation - The article includes a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating periods of undervaluation [37] - Following a significant drop in April 2025, the global stock market rebounded but remains at a lower valuation [38] Group 6: Investment Products - There are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China, but a simulated global index investment strategy is offered through a diversified portfolio [40] - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that includes various stock market index funds [41] Group 7: Book Release - A new edition of the book "The Intelligent Investor" has been released, which has gained significant popularity [46][48] - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the impact of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on global markets. Group 1: Market Overview - Global stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, maintaining a star rating of 3.0 [10] - U.S. stocks saw a minor increase, while European markets slightly declined [11][12] - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.3%, leading global markets [15][16] - The global bond market saw substantial gains, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreasing from 4.2-4.3% [17][19] Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - The recent economic data from the U.S. labor market, showing a non-farm employment increase of only 22,000 against a forecast of 75,000, raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [19][21] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut [22] - A decline in U.S. interest rates is expected to benefit global stock markets, particularly non-U.S. assets [30][35] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The article presents a valuation table for various global stock indices, highlighting metrics such as P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields [62][64] - The valuation data indicates that certain indices are undervalued and suitable for investment, while others are overvalued [64] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of interest rates, suggesting that they will fluctuate rather than move in a single direction [43][45] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which are not yet accessible in mainland China [49] - A "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across multiple stock markets [50] - The article encourages feedback on additional indices that readers would like to see included in future updates [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as the implications of these trends for investors. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with the global stock index rating remaining at 3.0 stars [10][11]. - European stock markets saw significant drops, particularly the French CAC40 index, which fell by 3.3% [13]. - In the Asia-Pacific region, markets such as India and Japan also faced declines, while Chinese assets continued to perform well, with the A-share index rising by 1.84% [15][16]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - Over the past year, the gains in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have significantly outpaced the global average, attributed to the low valuations seen last year [19][21]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were undervalued by approximately 50% compared to the global average at their lowest point [22]. - Currently, A-shares still hold a valuation advantage over global markets, but this advantage is narrowing, with estimates suggesting parity in valuations at around 3.0 stars [25][26]. Group 3: Earnings Reports - The earnings reports for A-shares for the second quarter have shown overall growth, indicating a positive trend [30][33]. - However, the growth rate in earnings has not significantly improved compared to the first quarter, suggesting a stable recovery [37][38]. - Different sectors are experiencing varying levels of profitability, with technology sectors showing notable improvements [40]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which are not yet accessible in mainland China [47]. - The company has introduced a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across multiple stock markets, including U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [48]. - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for these investment products, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [49]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The article promotes the newly released sixth edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant popularity and is recognized as a classic in investment literature [52][54]. - The book emphasizes the long-term benefits of stock investments and provides insights into various asset classes [55].