1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The coking coal market showed a high - opening and high - closing trend and hit the daily limit. Despite the increase in domestic coal production and high同比 production and operation, downstream procurement was active. Energy substitution and downstream recovery in the peak season drove up the price of coking coal, but short - term market risks increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and closed at the daily limit. Domestic coal mines' production recovery continued, with the current domestic mine operation rate reaching 87.16%, a 4.84% increase from last week. Production and operation were both higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement was active, with mine inventories decreasing by 23.59 tons, coke enterprises' inventories increasing by 35.6 tons, and steel mills' inventories decreasing by 3.7 tons. With the peak season approaching, downstream enterprises started to build up inventories, coke production increased, steel mills' profitability recovered, and the operation rate increased by 1.29%. The weekly daily output of hot metal was 2.2815 million tons. Coking enterprises were expected to raise prices. The Middle - East situation heated up, and the price of coking coal followed the increase in crude oil prices [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal was 1,114 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu was 1,320 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,289.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 30.5 yuan/ton, a 98.5 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the operation rate of 523 sample domestic mines for coking coal was 88.59%, a 1.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The average daily output of refined coking coal was 79.81 tons, a 2.11 - ton increase from the previous period [4]. 3.3.2 Demand Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the average daily output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.24 tons, a 0.34 - ton increase from the previous period. The average daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.31 tons, a 0.31 - ton increase from the previous period. The average daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 2.2815 million tons, a 695,000 - ton increase from the previous period [5].

Group 1 - The A-share coal sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with leading stocks like China Coal Energy hitting a historical high since February 2008, reaching 19.66 yuan per share, a 9.77% increase, and a total market capitalization of 234.2 billion yuan [1] - Other coal stocks such as Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Jinneng Technology also saw strong performance, with several stocks in the sector rising over 4% [1] - The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is contributing to market volatility, with reports of attacks on foreign oil tankers in Iraq, leading to heightened geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to address global oil supply concerns due to military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran, although this has not alleviated market anxiety [2] - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude futures rising over 8% to above $100, indicating that unless the security of the Strait of Hormuz is ensured, policy measures may have limited impact on oil prices [2] - The rising oil prices are driving demand for coal as a substitute fuel, with estimates suggesting that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, global coal demand for electricity could increase by 84-86 million tons annually, and domestic coal consumption in China could rise by nearly 50 million tons [2] Group 3 - Supply-side disruptions are also supporting coal prices, with Indonesia reducing coal production quotas, leading to tighter coal supply for China and increased prices for Australian coal imports [3] - The uncertain supply outlook from Indonesia, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, is likely to create a phase of tight global coal supply and demand, further strengthening price support [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [3] Core Views - The surge in global oil and gas prices is driving demand for coal, with significant price increases observed in both oil and gas markets [1][2] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to rising energy prices, leading to a notable increase in international coal prices, reaching levels not seen in over two years [2] - The report highlights that the international coal market is experiencing significant price pressure, with potential for further increases if geopolitical conflicts persist [5] Summary by Sections Coal Mining Prices - As of March 6, 2026, Newcastle coal prices are at $137.00 per ton, up by $18.50 per ton (+15.61%) from the previous week [1] - IPE South Africa Richards Bay coal futures settled at $113.00 per ton, an increase of $14.10 per ton (+14.26%) [1] - European ARA port coal prices decreased to $102.55 per ton, down by $4.45 per ton (-4.16%) [1] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of international coal is tightening, with Indonesia planning to reduce coal production quotas for 2026, which will limit export volumes [5] - The demand for coal in Northeast Asia is expected to rise as countries shift from LNG to coal for power generation due to high gas prices [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to perform well [5] - It also highlights companies involved in smart mining and those undergoing restructuring as potential investment opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [3] Core Insights - The surge in global oil and gas prices is driving demand for coal, with international coal prices reaching their highest levels in over two years due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - The report highlights that the transition to coal for power generation is becoming more pronounced in regions like Japan, South Korea, and the EU, as they seek to secure energy supplies amid rising natural gas prices [5] - The tightening supply from major coal-exporting countries, particularly Indonesia, is expected to further support international coal prices [5] Summary by Sections Oil Prices - Brent crude oil futures settled at $92.69 per barrel, up $20.21 per barrel (+27.88%) from the previous week [1] - WTI crude oil futures settled at $90.90 per barrel, up $23.88 per barrel (+35.63%) from the previous week [1] Natural Gas Prices - The Northeast Asia LNG spot price reached $21.18 per million British thermal units, up $10.51 (+98.42%) from the previous week [1] - The Dutch TTF natural gas futures price was €52.23 per megawatt-hour, up €20.63 (+65.27%) from the previous week [1] Coal Prices - Newcastle port coal (6000K) FOB price was $137 per ton, up $18.5 (+15.61%) from the previous week [1] - The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures price was $113 per ton, up $14.1 (+14.26%) from the previous week [1] - European ARA port coal (6000K) CIF price was $102.55 per ton, down $4.45 (-4.16%) from the previous week [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, which are expected to perform well [5] - It also highlights companies involved in smart mining and those undergoing turnaround situations, such as China Qinfa and Jiangxi Tungsten [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East is seen as a potential "super black swan" event that could disrupt global financial markets, with sectors such as oil and gas, gold, military, shipping, nuclear pollution prevention, and coal expected to benefit from the situation [1][6]. Beneficial Sectors - Oil and Gas Exploration: The conflict has directly driven up oil prices, enhancing profits for upstream companies. High oil prices are expected to stimulate increased capital expenditure in oil and gas firms, benefiting oil service equipment [2][6]. - Gold: The military conflict is likely to heighten market risk aversion, which in turn is expected to push up gold prices [2][7]. - Defense and Military: The escalation of geopolitical tensions is anticipated to increase demand for military supplies, including missiles, drones, and air defense systems [2][8]. - Shipping: The conflict may impact oil transportation routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping rates [2][9]. - Nuclear Pollution Prevention: The conflict's focus on nuclear issues is expected to drive demand for nuclear pollution monitoring and protective equipment [3][9]. - Coal: In the context of rising international oil prices and supply constraints, coal's value as an energy substitute is expected to increase significantly [3][10]. Institutional Insights - The impact of the Middle East conflict on equity assets is primarily seen in terms of risk preference and structural changes, with limited substantive effects on the fundamentals of the A-share market. As geopolitical shocks subside and domestic policy discussions intensify, risk preferences are expected to recover [4][11]. - In a scenario of a quick resolution, risk preferences may initially decline but then recover, with assets like gold, shipping, and military experiencing volatility. Conversely, if the conflict drags on, risk preferences may remain low, leading to sustained volatility in these assets [4][11]. - The military actions taken by the U.S. and Israel against Iran will significantly influence global markets and asset prices, depending on the objectives and duration of these actions [4][11]. Investor Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach and focus on structural opportunities, prioritizing sectors that directly benefit from the conflict, such as oil and gas, gold, and military [12]. - It is recommended to avoid sectors under pressure, such as aviation and oil refining, which may suffer from reduced profit margins due to rising oil prices [12]. - Long-term strategies should focus on domestic economic recovery and industry upgrades, using short-term volatility to invest in high-certainty core assets while balancing risk and return [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East is seen as a potential "super black swan" event that could disrupt global financial markets, with sectors such as oil and gas, gold, military, shipping, nuclear pollution prevention, and coal expected to benefit from the situation [1][6]. Beneficial Sectors - **Oil and Gas Exploration**: The conflict has directly driven up oil prices, enhancing profits for upstream companies. High oil prices are expected to stimulate increased capital expenditure in oil and gas enterprises, benefiting oil service equipment [2][6]. - **Gold**: The military conflict is likely to heighten market risk aversion, which in turn is expected to push up gold prices [2][7]. - **Military and Defense**: The escalation of geopolitical tensions is anticipated to increase demand for military supplies, including missiles, drones, and air defense systems [2][8]. - **Shipping**: The conflict may impact oil transportation routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping rates [2][9]. - **Nuclear Pollution Prevention**: The conflict's focus on nuclear issues is expected to drive demand for nuclear pollution monitoring and protective equipment [3][9]. - **Coal**: In the context of rising international oil prices and supply constraints, coal's value as an energy alternative is expected to increase significantly [3][10]. Institutional Interpretations - The impact of the Middle East conflict on equity assets is primarily seen in terms of risk preference and structural changes, with limited substantive effects on the fundamentals of the A-share market. As geopolitical shocks subside and domestic policy discussions intensify, risk preferences are expected to recover [4][11]. - In the event of a swift resolution to the conflict, risk preferences may initially decline but are likely to recover, with assets like gold, shipping, and military experiencing volatility. Conversely, if the conflict drags on, risk preferences may remain low, leading to sustained volatility in these assets [4][11]. - The military actions taken by the U.S. and Israel against Iran will significantly influence global markets and asset prices, with the A-share market's response largely dependent on risk preferences rather than fundamental changes [4][11]. Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach and focus on structural opportunities, prioritizing sectors that directly benefit from the conflict, such as oil and gas, gold, and military. It is recommended to avoid sectors under pressure, like aviation and oil refining, due to the impact of rising oil prices on profit margins [12].

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Sector Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal sector, specifically discussing investment opportunities and challenges within the industry [1] - The coal sector has experienced a poor performance this year, with an overall decline of approximately 13% in commodity profits and stock performance [1] Key Points and Arguments Current Performance - The coal sector's performance has been the worst among commodities this year, with thermal coal prices dropping over 20% [1] - The overall decline in the coal sector is attributed to demand factors, particularly a significant drop in electricity demand [2][3] Demand Analysis - Electricity demand growth has been notably weak, with a growth rate of only 2.5% this year compared to a GDP growth of 5.4% [3] - Structural demand issues are also present, particularly due to the increasing contribution of renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which have seen growth rates of nearly 10% and 20%, respectively [4] Supply Dynamics - Supply has seen slight increases, primarily from Shanxi province, but remains within expected ranges [4] - The profitability of coal companies has dropped to levels comparable to 2014, indicating a challenging environment for the sector [5] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, there is a belief that the coal sector will remain relevant for the next 15 to 20 years, driven by ongoing electricity demand [11] - Historical trends from developed markets (US, Europe, Japan) suggest that coal demand may not peak until significant energy substitution occurs [8][9] Supply Constraints - There are concerns about supply constraints due to potential depletion of coal reserves in key regions like Shanxi, which could see a reduction of up to 9 million tons in the next 10 to 20 years [13][14] - The impact of international imports on domestic supply is expected to be limited, as countries like India and Indonesia face their own demand challenges [15][18] Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong dividend yields and stable earnings, such as Zhongmei Energy, are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [23] - The coal sector is viewed as a long-term value investment, with potential for price recovery post-2026 [25] Additional Important Insights - Seasonal demand fluctuations are significant, with a notable increase in demand observed from August to September [19] - The coal sector's performance is expected to stabilize in the near term, with potential for recovery as electricity demand rebounds [21] - The focus on integrated operations and capital expenditure is expected to enhance the sector's long-term viability [24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the coal sector's current state and future outlook.