Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after entering the industrialization maturity phase in 2018, investors in China have significantly increased their focus on free cash flow (FCFF), leading to enhanced excess returns in industries with improved FCFF [1] - The current "anti-involution" policy is driving a contraction in manufacturing CAPEX, resulting in a "passive improvement" of free cash flow; simultaneously, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to facilitate the return of cross-border capital, further repairing EBIT in manufacturing and consumption sectors, leading to an "active improvement" of free cash flow [1] - Industries such as resources, consumption, and light asset technology (computers/media) are showing significant excess returns during the free cash flow improvement phase, primarily driven by the resonance of EBIT elevation and the contraction of CAPEX/working capital [1] Group 2 - The essence of the manufacturing "anti-involution" is to repair cash flow through CAPEX contraction (cost-saving) and EBIT enhancement (revenue-generating), with signs of improvement already observed in sub-sectors like new energy and cement [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cash flow ETFs (159399), which have outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments for interested investors [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][4][10] Core Insights - The decline in H1 2025 performance is primarily attributed to the decrease in gross margin from development business, while the revenue from operational and service segments continues to grow [2][9] - The company is expected to alleviate debt pressure by the end of 2025, with a marginal recovery in free cash flow, which may enhance investment cycles and boost valuations [1][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, total revenue was 588 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while pre-tax profit and net profit decreased by 30% and 45% respectively [2][3] - The gross margin for the overall business fell by 8.0 percentage points to 12.6%, with the development business gross margin dropping by 6.2 percentage points to 0.2% [2][3] - The company reported a core net profit of 14 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 71% year-on-year [2] Debt and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale, with total interest-bearing debt at 169.8 billion CNY, down 9% year-on-year [9] - By the end of 2025, the company is expected to have significantly eased its funding pressure, with a net debt ratio of 51% [9][10] Earnings Forecast - Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.71, 0.89, and 1.14 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.3, 12.1, and 9.5 [1][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady increase in dividends, signaling optimism despite a significant decline in construction revenue. Operational business remains robust with a rapid increase in heating supply [2][10]. - The company reported a decrease in total revenue by 8% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 10%. The drop in construction revenue and foreign exchange losses contributed to this decline [10]. - The operational service revenue increased by 5% to 99.43 billion HKD, with specific segments like environmental energy and water services showing growth [10]. - The overall gross profit margin improved by 5.53 percentage points to 44.26%, and the net profit margin improved by 0.84 percentage points to 19.44% [10]. - The company’s dividend per share (DPS) increased by 7% to 0.15 HKD in H1 2025, compared to 0.14 HKD in the same period of 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 30,258 million HKD in 2024 to 29,272 million HKD in 2025, with a further decrease to 28,972 million HKD by 2027 [4]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 3,377 million HKD in 2024 to 4,048 million HKD in 2025, reaching 4,288 million HKD by 2027 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to improve from 7.0 in 2024 to 6.5 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation [4]. Operational Insights - The company’s waste disposal volume increased by 2% to 28.57 million tons, and the supply of steam for heating grew by 39% [10]. - The capital expenditure has been reduced, leading to a positive trend in free cash flow, with only 3,000 tons of new waste projects added in H1 2025 [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 bookings reached a record of $342 million, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.25, resulting in a record backlog of $1.4 billion, up 6% year over year [8][19] - Q4 revenue was $273 million, reflecting a 9.9% increase year over year, while full-year revenue was $912 million, up 9.2% year over year [8][24] - Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $51 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.8%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, with a margin of 13.1% [8][24] - Free cash flow for Q4 was $34 million, contributing to a record full-year free cash flow of $119 million [8][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant contract awards in Q4 included $36.9 million for ground-based radar programs and a $22 million contract for sensor processing subsystems [10][11] - The company recognized $4.7 million of net adverse EAC changes in Q4, indicating ongoing improvements in program management and operations [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong demand across various end markets, including land, sea, and space, with positive conversations with domestic and European primes [100][101] - The backlog margin is expected to improve as lower-margin programs are completed and replaced with higher-margin bookings [12][49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on four priorities: performance excellence, driving organic growth, expanding margins, and improving free cash flow [6][8] - The strategic emphasis is on accelerating customer deliveries and optimizing operations to enhance margins and cash flow [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market backdrop and the company's ability to deliver results aligned with targeted growth and margin profiles [16][80] - For FY 2026, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth, with the first half expected to be relatively flat year over year [16][18] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with $309 million in cash, reflecting strong cash generation from operations [25] - Net working capital decreased by $90 million year over year, demonstrating improved efficiency [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding factory capacity allocation tied to unbilled receivables - Management indicated that while unbilled balances will improve free cash flow, they have little impact on revenue, as most revenue has already been recognized [35][56] Question: On net working capital levels - Management stated that a normalized level for net working capital could be in the 35% range, with ongoing efforts to reduce it further [36] Question: On revenue pull-forward and execution - Management explained that improved execution and customer demand have allowed for the acceleration of deliveries, contributing to strong Q4 results [44][46] Question: On margin expectations - Management expects gross margins to continue increasing over time, driven by improvements in backlog margins and operational efficiencies [72][73] Question: On annual guidance rationale - Management refrained from providing specific annual guidance due to uncertainties in delivery acceleration and market conditions, but remains positive about the outlook [78][80]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a volatile pattern in early August, followed by a return to an upward trend in late August, potentially reaching new highs[2] - Concerns regarding the US-China tariff conflict may persist until around August 12, after which risk appetite is likely to recover[3] - The overall free cash flow of listed companies is anticipated to improve, reinforcing the logic for re-evaluating A-shares[3] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, indicating a stable economic environment[17] - The second quarter earnings growth for listed companies is expected to remain between 0% and 5%[16] - The market has successfully surpassed key resistance levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3450 and the WIND All A Index above 5400 points[18] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high ROE and free cash flow companies on one side, and sectors like AI and defense on the other[19] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, and machinery[21] Fund Flows - Incremental capital is expected to continue flowing into the market, driven by financing, private equity, and industry ETFs[7] - The net inflow of funds is likely to persist, supported by the positive feedback loop from the market's performance[25] Industry Focus - Attention should be given to sectors with high earnings growth or marginal improvement, particularly in TMT, manufacturing, and essential consumer goods[8] - The focus on "de-involution" competition is expected to drive capacity clearing in various industries, enhancing profitability[21]