Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][4][10] Core Insights - The decline in H1 2025 performance is primarily attributed to the decrease in gross margin from development business, while the revenue from operational and service segments continues to grow [2][9] - The company is expected to alleviate debt pressure by the end of 2025, with a marginal recovery in free cash flow, which may enhance investment cycles and boost valuations [1][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, total revenue was 588 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, while pre-tax profit and net profit decreased by 30% and 45% respectively [2][3] - The gross margin for the overall business fell by 8.0 percentage points to 12.6%, with the development business gross margin dropping by 6.2 percentage points to 0.2% [2][3] - The company reported a core net profit of 14 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 71% year-on-year [2] Debt and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has successfully reduced its debt scale, with total interest-bearing debt at 169.8 billion CNY, down 9% year-on-year [9] - By the end of 2025, the company is expected to have significantly eased its funding pressure, with a net debt ratio of 51% [9][10] Earnings Forecast - Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.71, 0.89, and 1.14 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.3, 12.1, and 9.5 [1][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady increase in dividends, signaling optimism despite a significant decline in construction revenue. Operational business remains robust with a rapid increase in heating supply [2][10]. - The company reported a decrease in total revenue by 8% year-on-year for H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 10%. The drop in construction revenue and foreign exchange losses contributed to this decline [10]. - The operational service revenue increased by 5% to 99.43 billion HKD, with specific segments like environmental energy and water services showing growth [10]. - The overall gross profit margin improved by 5.53 percentage points to 44.26%, and the net profit margin improved by 0.84 percentage points to 19.44% [10]. - The company’s dividend per share (DPS) increased by 7% to 0.15 HKD in H1 2025, compared to 0.14 HKD in the same period of 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 30,258 million HKD in 2024 to 29,272 million HKD in 2025, with a further decrease to 28,972 million HKD by 2027 [4]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 3,377 million HKD in 2024 to 4,048 million HKD in 2025, reaching 4,288 million HKD by 2027 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to improve from 7.0 in 2024 to 6.5 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation [4]. Operational Insights - The company’s waste disposal volume increased by 2% to 28.57 million tons, and the supply of steam for heating grew by 39% [10]. - The capital expenditure has been reduced, leading to a positive trend in free cash flow, with only 3,000 tons of new waste projects added in H1 2025 [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 bookings reached a record of $342 million, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.25, resulting in a record backlog of $1.4 billion, up 6% year over year [8][19] - Q4 revenue was $273 million, reflecting a 9.9% increase year over year, while full-year revenue was $912 million, up 9.2% year over year [8][24] - Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $51 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.8%, and full-year adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, with a margin of 13.1% [8][24] - Free cash flow for Q4 was $34 million, contributing to a record full-year free cash flow of $119 million [8][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant contract awards in Q4 included $36.9 million for ground-based radar programs and a $22 million contract for sensor processing subsystems [10][11] - The company recognized $4.7 million of net adverse EAC changes in Q4, indicating ongoing improvements in program management and operations [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong demand across various end markets, including land, sea, and space, with positive conversations with domestic and European primes [100][101] - The backlog margin is expected to improve as lower-margin programs are completed and replaced with higher-margin bookings [12][49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on four priorities: performance excellence, driving organic growth, expanding margins, and improving free cash flow [6][8] - The strategic emphasis is on accelerating customer deliveries and optimizing operations to enhance margins and cash flow [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market backdrop and the company's ability to deliver results aligned with targeted growth and margin profiles [16][80] - For FY 2026, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth, with the first half expected to be relatively flat year over year [16][18] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with $309 million in cash, reflecting strong cash generation from operations [25] - Net working capital decreased by $90 million year over year, demonstrating improved efficiency [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding factory capacity allocation tied to unbilled receivables - Management indicated that while unbilled balances will improve free cash flow, they have little impact on revenue, as most revenue has already been recognized [35][56] Question: On net working capital levels - Management stated that a normalized level for net working capital could be in the 35% range, with ongoing efforts to reduce it further [36] Question: On revenue pull-forward and execution - Management explained that improved execution and customer demand have allowed for the acceleration of deliveries, contributing to strong Q4 results [44][46] Question: On margin expectations - Management expects gross margins to continue increasing over time, driven by improvements in backlog margins and operational efficiencies [72][73] Question: On annual guidance rationale - Management refrained from providing specific annual guidance due to uncertainties in delivery acceleration and market conditions, but remains positive about the outlook [78][80]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a volatile pattern in early August, followed by a return to an upward trend in late August, potentially reaching new highs[2] - Concerns regarding the US-China tariff conflict may persist until around August 12, after which risk appetite is likely to recover[3] - The overall free cash flow of listed companies is anticipated to improve, reinforcing the logic for re-evaluating A-shares[3] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, indicating a stable economic environment[17] - The second quarter earnings growth for listed companies is expected to remain between 0% and 5%[16] - The market has successfully surpassed key resistance levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 3450 and the WIND All A Index above 5400 points[18] Investment Strategy - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high ROE and free cash flow companies on one side, and sectors like AI and defense on the other[19] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, and machinery[21] Fund Flows - Incremental capital is expected to continue flowing into the market, driven by financing, private equity, and industry ETFs[7] - The net inflow of funds is likely to persist, supported by the positive feedback loop from the market's performance[25] Industry Focus - Attention should be given to sectors with high earnings growth or marginal improvement, particularly in TMT, manufacturing, and essential consumer goods[8] - The focus on "de-involution" competition is expected to drive capacity clearing in various industries, enhancing profitability[21]