热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理 涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月26日 摘要：单边上：春节前终端备货结束后，倾向于逢高沽空PK03合约。12月期间主力油厂集团入市题材 基本结束，目前收购价格进入阶段性平稳阶段，目前主力合约仅存的估值支撑在于交割品成本。PK12 月合约交割匹配结果总体正常，交割品成本得到验证，进一步发酵的概率正在减弱。目前持货贸易商仅 存的销售窗口在于春节前的刚需备货，但这部分需求量级相对有限，预计备货结束后，03合约估值存在 回落压力，暗示着市场交易重心从东北回归河南的可能性。 套利上：倾向于逢高沽空3-5月间价差。本年度产区上量整体偏慢，市场走货不快，而春节相对偏晚， 节前出货窗口久而节后相对偏少。若惜售现象持续，节后或存在阶段性出货压力，暗示着03合约支撑性 弱于01合约的可能性。另一方面，12月期间塞内加尔宣布对花生出口征税，导致前期进口米压缩交割品 成本预期证伪，预计04和05合约估值相较于03获相对支撑。总体而言，1月期间倾向于逢高沽空PK3-5 月间价差。 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、商品大涨价，小心短期假日压力； 2、市场动力，何时出现？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、商品大涨价，小心短期假日压力 从上周五到今天为止，在投资市场中引发最大讨论和关注度的，来自贵金属市场。白银在期货市场中单 日暴涨10%，年内累计涨幅已超过1.7倍；黄金也同步跟涨，最新价格达到4500美元每盎司的历史高 位。这究竟是新一轮大行情的前奏，还是上一阶段行情的尾声？我们一起来聊一聊。 但这一逻辑无法完全解释为何最近两天期货市场上出现了如此剧烈的短期上涨。这种短期效应的推动力 究竟来自哪里？很可能与近期西方国家庆祝圣诞节，以及紧接着全球迎来元旦、新年假期这一特殊时间 节点有关。越是临近长假，期货市场上的空头（即做空资金）越不敢冒进，往往会选择在节假日前减仓 甚至清仓，这也是一种典型的节日效应。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投8 ...

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 海外双旦，国内产业压力大 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价冲高回落，但沪金仍处于 1000 元关口上方，纽约金处于 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is at 49.8%, showing a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in economic output [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [2] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities have accelerated, with the production index reaching 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, marking a six-month high [1] - The new orders index is at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating improved market demand [1] - Key industries such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.0%, indicating stability, while the service sector index is slightly higher at 50.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [2] - Certain industries, including postal, telecommunications, and financial services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating strong growth [2] - However, sectors closely related to consumer spending, such as dining and entertainment, have seen indices drop below the critical point due to the end of the summer season [2] Economic Outlook - The production and operation activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations for the near term [2] - Analysts predict that the "year-end effect" and "holiday effect" will boost investment and consumption-related demand, particularly in construction and service sectors [2] - Overall, the macroeconomic environment is expected to continue improving in the fourth quarter, supported by potential policy measures and market confidence [3]

Core Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index in China for September remained stable at 50%, indicating steady operational activity in the sector [1] - The financial services sector showed strong performance, with the business activity index exceeding 60%, contributing positively to the overall economic environment [1] Summary by Category Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The average business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector in Q3 was 50.1%, consistently above 50% across the months [1] - The service sector's business activity index averaged 50.2% in Q3, higher than the same period last year [1] - The construction sector's business activity index averaged 49.7% in Q3, lower than the previous year's average [1] Business Expectations - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimistic expectations, with the business activity expectation index remaining above 55% for 12 consecutive months, averaging 55.9% in Q3 [1] Outlook for Q4 - The non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover in Q4, driven by year-end and holiday effects that will boost investment and consumption [2] - A series of policy measures are anticipated to gradually take effect, improving market expectations and supporting the recovery of domestic demand [2]

Core Insights - The price of eggs has seen an increase due to seasonal effects and rising demand from downstream procurement as temperatures drop [1] - As of September 19, the average price of brown-shelled eggs in China was 3.64 yuan per jin, reflecting a 17.42% increase compared to the beginning of the month [1] - Analysts predict that the demand for fresh eggs will rise due to the holiday effect in late September and early October, potentially boosting market prices [1] - However, it is anticipated that by mid to late October, inventory levels across various sectors will need to be digested, leading to a decrease in procurement enthusiasm and a subsequent reduction in egg demand, which may negatively impact market prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for fresh eggs is expected to increase due to seasonal effects and upcoming holidays, leading to a rise in prices, but a decrease in demand is anticipated later in October as inventory levels rise [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 19, the average price of brown shell eggs in China is 3.64 yuan per jin, reflecting a 17.42% increase since the beginning of the month [1] Group 2: Demand Forecast - The demand for fresh eggs is projected to rise at the end of September and early October due to holiday effects, which may support market prices [1] - However, demand is expected to gradually decrease in mid to late October as inventory levels across various sectors need to be digested, which could negatively impact market prices [1]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation around the 3300-point level, with mysterious funds seemingly supporting the index, but unable to push it higher [1] - Recent trading volume has shown a decline to below 1 trillion, indicating low market sentiment, followed by a three-day increase back to above 1 trillion, but still struggling to gain momentum [1][2] - The upper resistance levels are identified at 3219 points and 3342 points, which need to be addressed for a smoother upward movement [1] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports are expected to be underwhelming, with no significant surprises, and some companies delaying their reports, creating a negative sentiment [2] - The market is currently waiting for a strong sector to drive overall market sentiment, as individual stocks are not moving in unison [1][2] Central Bank Actions - The central bank's recent MLF operation of 600 billion yuan is seen as an attempt to inject liquidity into the market, but has only resulted in minor market movements [2] - The lack of a unified market response indicates that opportunities are primarily in rapid sector rotations, making it challenging for retail investors [2]