节后销区苹果到车减少， 水果降价 苹苹苹苹 2026.2.25 作者：魏舒婷 从业资格证号：F03149087 交易咨询证号：Z0022950 研究联系方式：weishuting@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 苹果 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 今年苹果产量偏低、国内冷库库存低，累计出库不及去年同期。现货价格维持稳定，特别是好货，现货基差较上周走强。 | | | | 销区到车量较节前明显减少，节后水果批发价普遍下降，农业部监测的六种水果中下降最多的是鸭梨、其次苹果，比价 | | | | 仍处于高位区间。后续持续关注销区成交氛围、库内货源出库情况、柑橘类水果交易情况。 | | 价格表现 | 中性 | 本周苹果盘面较节前微跌，现货方面，2月24日，栖霞一、二级80#纸袋4元/斤（与上周持平），洛川70#纸袋4.2元/斤 | | | | （与上周持平），主力合约现货基差-1705元/吨（上周-1835元/吨）。 | | 供应 | 中性偏多 | 2025年我国苹果产量 ...

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index" increased to 130.56, up by 0.05 points from the previous day, while the "Vegetable Basket" price index rose to 133.55, up by 0.06 points [1] Price Changes in Key Products - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.60 yuan/kg, down by 0.6% from yesterday - Beef is priced at 66.01 yuan/kg, down by 0.2% - Mutton is at 63.50 yuan/kg, down by 1.0% - Eggs increased to 8.58 yuan/kg, up by 0.2% - Broiler chicken is priced at 16.68 yuan/kg, down by 2.8% [1] Vegetable and Fruit Prices - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 5.58 yuan/kg, down by 0.4% - The average price of 6 monitored fruits is 7.93 yuan/kg, down by 0.4% [1] Fish Prices - Crucian carp is priced at 19.40 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% - Carp is at 13.88 yuan/kg, down by 0.8% - White catfish is priced at 9.94 yuan/kg, down by 4.4% - Large hairtail is at 41.58 yuan/kg, down by 1.9% [1] Price Fluctuations in Specific Products - Among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were for asparagus lettuce (3.9%), pineapple (2.8%), green beans (2.5%), white radish (1.7%), and ginger (1.7%) - The top five price decreases were for onion (4.8%), white catfish (4.4%), duck pear (3.4%), broiler chicken (2.8%), and lettuce (2.6%) [2]

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" increased to 130.39, up by 0.05 points from the previous day, while the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose to 133.33, up by 0.07 points [1] Group 1: Price Changes in Key Agricultural Products - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.66 yuan/kg, up by 0.1% from yesterday; beef is 66.01 yuan/kg, down by 0.3%; mutton is 63.64 yuan/kg, down by 0.5%; eggs are 8.51 yuan/kg, up by 1.2%; and broiler chickens are 17.25 yuan/kg, up by 1.9% [1] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables is 5.61 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of 6 monitored fruits is 7.93 yuan/kg, up by 1.1% [1] Group 2: Price Changes in Fish and Other Products - The price of crucian carp is 19.44 yuan/kg, up by 0.8%; carp is 14.02 yuan/kg, up by 1.2%; white catfish is 10.49 yuan/kg, up by 4.4%; and large hairtail is 42.55 yuan/kg, up by 0.6% [1] - Among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were for duck pears (5.4%), white catfish (4.4%), pumpkins (3.9%), flower carp (3.6%), and winter melons (2.4%); the top five price decreases were for Chinese cabbage (2.8%), large yellow croaker (2.7%), Chinese cabbage (1.7%), cauliflower (1.5%), and asparagus lettuce (1.1%) [2]

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased to 130.10, down by 0.03 points from the previous day, while the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index fell to 132.98, down by 0.04 points [1] Price Summary - The average wholesale price of pork is stable at 18.50 yuan/kg, while beef decreased by 0.2% to 65.79 yuan/kg. Mutton increased by 0.6% to 63.60 yuan/kg, and eggs rose by 0.9% to 8.27 yuan/kg. The price of white-feathered chicken decreased by 0.3% to 17.27 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables remained unchanged at 5.66 yuan/kg, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits increased by 1.7% to 7.93 yuan/kg [1] - Specific fish prices include crucian carp at 19.31 yuan/kg (down 0.2%), carp at 13.73 yuan/kg (down 0.1%), white catfish at 10.48 yuan/kg (down 0.4%), and large hairtail at 42.65 yuan/kg (up 2.7%) [1] Price Changes in Key Products - Among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were for pineapple (4.0%), large hairtail (2.7%), giant peak grapes (1.8%), duck pears (1.6%), and zucchini (1.3%) [2] - The top five price decreases were for asparagus lettuce (5.2%), white radish (3.4%), cauliflower (1.4%), leeks (1.0%), and celery (0.9%) [2]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slight increase in agricultural product wholesale prices, with the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" rising to 128.24, an increase of 0.05 points from the previous day [1] - The average wholesale price of pork is reported at 18.07 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% from yesterday, while beef prices decreased by 0.7% to 65.21 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of key monitored vegetables increased by 0.7% to 5.54 yuan/kg, and the average price of key monitored fruits rose by 1.0% to 8.02 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - Among the 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were seen in watermelon (5.9%), giant peak grapes (3.2%), green beans (2.4%), cabbage (2.2%), and green peppers (2.2%) [2] - The top five price decreases were recorded for pineapple (4.5%), flower carp (3.3%), white carp (1.5%), duck pear (1.3%), and lettuce (1.2%) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Apple产区交易整体略显沉闷，甘肃产区交易尚可，山东、陕西、山西整体交易冷淡，元旦前后冷库包装发货少，交易迟缓[2] - 库内富士好货行情相对稳定，果农一般货源以质论价，产区交易氛围不旺，客商按需采购[2] - 陕西部分果农有让价心理，成交以少量两级货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；山东成交零星，维纳斯等替代苹果按需出库，其余货源交易不多；甘肃客商按需调果农货源，包装发货稳定，走货尚可[2] - 销区市场车厘子、柑橘等水果占据市场热度，节日提振作用受限，短期苹果价格将震荡运行为主[2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果为9547元/吨，主力合约持仓量:苹果为157882手，环比增加23658手[2] - 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果为6134手，环比增加4170手[2] Spot Market - 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75以上)为5.25元/斤，山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75以上)为2.4元/斤，陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70以上半商品)为4.2元/斤，山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80以上一二级果农货)为4元/斤，环比均无变化[2] Upstream Situation - 全国:苹果产量为5128.51万吨，环比增加168.34万吨[2] Industry Situation - 水果批发价:苹果为9.37元/公斤，平均批发价:富士苹果为9.1元/公斤，环比下降0.04元/公斤[2] - 全国苹果冷库总库存为733.56万吨，环比下降10.48万吨；山东苹果库容比为0.52，环比下降0.01；陕西苹果库容比为0.56，环比下降0.01[2] - 苹果:出口数量:当月值为120000吨，环比增加40000吨；苹果:出口金额:当月同比下降216418万美元[2] - 鲜、干水果及坚果:进口金额:当月值为16.2万美元，一二级纸袋苹果80存储商利润为0元/斤，环比无变化[2] Downstream Situation - 水果批发价:鸭梨为6.75元/公斤，水果批发价:香蕉为6.88元/公斤，水果批发价:西瓜为5.81元/公斤，环比分别增加0.03元/公斤、0.05元/公斤、-1.35元/公斤[2] - 广东江门批发市场早间日均到车量为17.25辆，环比下降3.15辆；广东下桥批发市场早间日均到车量为21.25辆，广东槎龙批发市场早间日均到车量为31.75辆，环比下降4.05辆[2] Option Market - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率:苹果为24.07%，环比下降0.39%；平值看跌期权隐含波动率:苹果为24.09%，环比下降0.38%[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi production areas remains sluggish, with slow shipment and increased willingness of fruit growers to sell at market prices. The shipment in Gansu production area is okay, especially the inventory of high - cost - effective Fuji apples is actively traded. The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji apples remains light, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase fruit growers' goods has declined. Good - quality apple prices remain firm, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples have loosened. As of December 18, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the storage - capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased. The prices of fruit growers' goods in Shaanxi's secondary production areas slightly declined, and the sales area market shipment is still poor. The increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits impacts apple sales. With the current weak demand for double - festival stocking, there is a possibility of a continued short - term price decline. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9149 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 888 compared to the previous period; the main - contract position volume is 6025 hands, and the net long - order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 148,778 hands, with a decrease of 1940 compared to the previous period. [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, with no change compared to the previous period. The price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, also with no change. [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons. The fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.37 yuan/kg, with an increase of 168.34 compared to the previous period, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.14 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.01. The national apple cold - storage total inventory is 752.98 million tons, with a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage - capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.57, and that in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly export quantity of apples is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreased by 503,616 US dollars, and the year - on - year monthly export amount of apples decreased by 14.3%. The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no change. [2] Downstream Situation - The fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.06; the price of bananas is 6.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.27; the price of watermelons is 5.64 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.17. The early - morning average daily vehicle arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.2 vehicles, with an increase of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.6 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 27.6 vehicles, with an increase of 3.8. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.02%, and that of at - the - money put options is 24.01%, both with an increase of 0.33 compared to the previous period. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The apple futures price will continue to operate at a high level in the short term due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, which support the holiday demand, despite the light trading atmosphere in the apple market and the impact of citrus fruits [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,506 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 126,173 lots, with an increase of 1,466 lots compared to the previous period; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions is 5,007 lots, a decrease of 1,983 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remain unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg; the total weekly inventory of apple cold storage in China is 763.51 million tons, a decrease of 3.24 million tons; the weekly apple storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.58, and that in Shaanxi is 0.54; the monthly export volume of apples is 80,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts decreases by 5.8%; the monthly year-on-year export value of apples decreases by 14.3%; the weekly profit of first- and second-grade paper-bagged apple 80 storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons change, and the morning average daily arrival vehicle volumes at fruit wholesale markets in Guangdong also change [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options for apples is 22.94%, with a decrease of 0.3% [2] Industry News - The inventory trading in apple production areas is still light, with few inquiries and viewings in cold storage, and most of the small-volume transactions are low-priced goods; the overall transaction of late Fuji apples remains light, and the order volume from merchants in the production areas is limited; the inventory in the main apple production areas decreases, and the inventory ratio in Shandong and Shaanxi decreases; the shipment in the Shandong production area is slow, and the inventory trading is limited; the willingness of fruit farmers in the Shaanxi production area to sell is still not high; the arrival volume in the sales area market increases slightly, the trading atmosphere is still light, and citrus fruits impact the apple market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful export of Hebei's snow pear, emphasizing its growing international market presence and the unique qualities that make it appealing to foreign consumers [1][5]. Group 1: Export and Market Demand - In 2023, approximately 370,000 pieces of fresh pears have been exported, primarily to Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the UAE [3]. - Indonesia is identified as the largest export market for Hebei's fresh pears, where they are often used in religious ceremonies and traditional celebrations [3]. - The pears are customized for different markets, with smaller varieties preferred in the UAE and snow pears favored in Vietnam [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Practices and Production - Zhao County has a total pear cultivation area of about 250,000 acres, with an annual production of approximately 700,000 tons and a production value exceeding 4 billion RMB [5]. - The sugar content of Zhao County's snow pears can reach up to 16.5%, significantly higher than ordinary varieties, attributed to the region's favorable soil and climate conditions [3][5]. - The integration of traditional planting wisdom with modern agricultural innovations is evident, with a focus on organic farming practices that have doubled or tripled farmers' incomes [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Development - The local cooperative is planning to expand its ecological planting scale and is preparing for further export activities, aiming to benefit both farmers and consumers [6]. - Zhao County is also developing deep processing and rural tourism around the pear industry, creating a year-round cultural experience for visitors [6].