[Table_StockNameRptType] 金融工程 专题报告 虚假信息可被容忍吗？解析其对波动的影响与 边界 ——学海拾珠系列之二百六十一 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期：2026-01-08 [Table_Author] 分析师：骆昱杉 执业证书号：S0010522110001 邮箱：luoyushan@hazq.com 分析师：严佳炜 执业证书号：S0010520070001 邮箱：yanjw@hazq.com 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 本篇是学海拾珠系列第二百六十一篇，文章构建了一个含虚假信息 的掠夺性交易博弈模型，分析正确与虚假信息并存下误差因子、容忍 阈值及对波动影响，扩展至一般失真；探讨信息更新动态作用，发现可 抵消失真、降波动，但随机性增控制难度，利润与波动目标或冲突。 将虚假信息嵌入受害者与捕食者的掠夺性交易博弈模型 本文基于 Carlin 等（2007）与 Carmona & Yang（2011）的微观结 构框架，构建含受害者与捕食者的掠夺性交易博弈模型，引入虚假信 息（玩家误信失真信号），利用信念固着偏差合理化假设，区分其与不 确定性博弈，分析信息扭曲对 ...

强大的品牌，是应对信息过载的一剂良方。 图片来源：Maxim Hopman/Unsplash Nicki Allitt 世界经济论坛执行委员会成员 战略传播与协调总负责人 我们正淹没于信息的洪流之中。"信息泛滥"、"信息中毒"、"信息过载"……这些形容信息过载的热词已在互联网上流传多年。今年，"AI糟粕"（即"AI slop"）被评为《麦考瑞词典》年度词汇，形容AI生成的劣质内容。 名称各异，感受却如出一辙：我们被淹没、被拉扯，在信息的漩涡里迷失方向。 这一点也不奇怪。想想看，我们每天生成的数据量高达4亿太字节。如此海量的信息，人类大脑根本无从招架。 而这还远未算上那些蓄意的欺骗。 根据世界经济论坛发布的《2025年全球风险报告》，错误信息与虚假信息已被列为未来两年全球面临的最严峻风险。 来源：世界经济论坛 虚假信息每年给全球经济造成约780亿美元损失，面对"真相的侵蚀"，企业已无法再忽视这一财务风险。 在"AI糟粕"泛滥的时代，领导者必须厘清声誉与品牌的区别，方能在混沌中前行。 当七成民众自觉身陷信息迷雾，唯有价值观鲜明的品牌，能刺破"信息过载"的混沌，成为众声喧哗中的定音之锤。 图片来源：世界经济论坛《2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pervasive issue of false information on the internet, highlighting how it is generated and disseminated through various channels, including social media and AI technologies, creating a complex gray industry that profits from misinformation [4][5][20]. Group 1: Information Pollution - The average Chinese individual spends nearly 8 hours online daily, encountering around 1,000 pieces of information, with a conservative estimate suggesting that hundreds of these are false [4]. - In June 2025, there were approximately 1.85 million reports of online illegal and harmful information across the country [4]. - False content acts like a mental fog, subtly contaminating public perception and trust [4]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Misinformation - The article details how individuals and companies create false narratives, including scriptwriting and video production, with some earning between 70,000 to 900,000 yuan monthly [5][12]. - A specific case involves a character named "Taozi," who produces videos that appear authentic but are scripted and staged, often involving actors portraying delivery personnel and customers in fabricated scenarios [6][9]. - The content often exploits emotional narratives to engage viewers, leading to significant interaction and shares on social media platforms [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Incentives - The production of false narratives is driven by financial incentives, with creators earning money through advertisements and viewer engagement [20][21]. - For instance, "Taozi" can earn around 70,000 yuan monthly from advertisements alone, in addition to revenue from viewer interactions [20]. - The article also mentions a company that utilizes AI to generate and distribute misleading content, highlighting the profitability of such operations [35][36]. Group 4: Social Impact - The spread of false information not only misrepresents individuals but also fosters societal divisions and stigmatizes certain groups, such as delivery workers [22][24]. - The article cites specific incidents where misinformation led to public outrage and personal harm, illustrating the real-world consequences of online falsehoods [23][25]. - It emphasizes the challenge of fact-checking, as misinformation often spreads faster and more widely than corrections can be issued [43][44]. Group 5: AI's Role in Misinformation - AI technologies are increasingly used to generate false information, with studies indicating that even a small percentage of false data in training sets can significantly increase harmful outputs [26][32]. - The article discusses how AI-generated content can manipulate public perception and even influence international relations, as seen in the context of the Ukraine conflict [33][34]. - Companies are leveraging AI to automate the creation of misleading narratives, further complicating the landscape of information integrity [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pervasive issue of misinformation on the internet, highlighting how fake content is produced and disseminated, often for profit, and the detrimental effects it has on public perception and trust in information sources [3][22][54]. Group 1: Information Pollution - The average Chinese individual spends nearly 8 hours online daily, encountering approximately 1,000 pieces of information, with a conservative estimate suggesting that hundreds of these are false [3][4]. - Misinformation spreads rapidly through social media and short videos, often misleading millions within minutes [4][22]. - The article identifies a gray industry behind the creation of fake content, where individuals script, film, and distribute misleading videos, earning substantial incomes [5][22][30]. Group 2: Fake Content Production - The production of fake videos often involves actors portraying scenarios that evoke sympathy or moral outrage, which are then monetized through views and advertisements [9][21][22]. - A specific example includes a character named "Taozi," who creates scripted videos featuring fake delivery scenarios that mislead viewers into believing they are real [7][9][18]. - The article reveals that these fake narratives are designed to provoke emotional responses, leading to increased engagement and revenue from advertisements [14][20][22]. Group 3: The Role of AI - AI technology is increasingly used to generate and spread misinformation, with studies indicating that even a small percentage of false data in training sets can significantly increase harmful outputs [26][30]. - Companies are leveraging AI to automate the creation of misleading content, which can be distributed across various platforms for profit [30][32]. - The use of AI in misinformation not only affects individual reputations but can also disrupt public discourse and influence societal perceptions [29][30]. Group 4: Impact on Society - The proliferation of fake information contributes to societal divisions and the stigmatization of certain groups, such as delivery workers, by fabricating narratives that create conflict [22][44]. - Misinformation can lead to real-world consequences, including public outrage and harm to individuals' reputations, as seen in various high-profile cases [25][44]. - The article emphasizes the challenge of fact-checking in the face of overwhelming misinformation, where false narratives often gain traction faster than corrections can be disseminated [46][54].

Regulatory Focus - The Securities Fund Institutional Supervision Department issued a regulatory notice regarding fabricated and disseminated false information by securities fund institutions [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) organized investigations into individual industry institutions and personnel involved in creating and spreading false information [1] - The CSRC took strict administrative regulatory measures against relevant institutions and personnel [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the competition between the US and China in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), emphasizing the differing approaches and potential outcomes of this rivalry [3][4][5]. - Eric Schmidt highlights the importance of energy supply in the US's ability to leverage its advantages in AI and AGI, suggesting that without sufficient energy, the US may struggle to maintain its lead [5][8]. - The conversation also touches on the potential risks associated with AI, including misinformation, cybersecurity threats, and biological safety concerns, and the need for proactive measures to mitigate these risks [9][10][11]. AI Competition - The US is perceived to be pursuing advanced AI and AGI, while China focuses on applying AI across various products and services in a more traditional manner [4]. - Schmidt believes that the hardware restrictions imposed by the US on China will hinder China's competitiveness in the AI race [4]. - The US has advantages in software development, but China is expected to dominate in the robotics sector, similar to its success in electric vehicles [6][7]. Energy Constraints - The US faces significant energy supply challenges, which could limit its ability to fully utilize its advantages in AI and AGI [5][8]. - Schmidt notes that the US will need to build an additional 92 gigawatts of power generation capacity by 2030 to meet the demands of data centers, highlighting the urgency of addressing energy supply issues [8]. AI Risks and Mitigation - The article discusses the potential for AI-related disasters and the importance of learning from past crises to implement effective regulations and controls [9][10]. - Schmidt identifies misinformation, cybersecurity, and biological safety as key threats that need to be addressed proactively [10][11]. Recommendations for Founders - Schmidt advises founders to focus on rapid action and learning, emphasizing that the barriers to starting a company are lower than ever [16][17]. - He stresses the importance of building scalable platforms that can leverage network effects to create significant wealth for founders [19][20]. Historical Significance - The emergence of AI is compared to historical inventions like electricity and transportation, suggesting that the next decade will be crucial in shaping the future [21][22]. - Companies and nations that embrace AI will likely emerge as winners, while those that lag behind may face significant challenges [22].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform education by serving as an adaptive intermediary that can enhance learning experiences and address systemic challenges in traditional educational frameworks [1][4][12] - AI can help students demonstrate their knowledge through various mediums, such as voice or visual presentations, rather than solely relying on written assessments, which can disadvantage certain learners [5][6] - The article emphasizes that AI can track individual learning progress and provide personalized feedback, thus allowing for a more tailored educational experience [5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the dual nature of AI in combating misinformation, highlighting its potential to identify and expose false information while also acknowledging concerns about its role in perpetuating passive consumption of information [7][8][10] - AI's ability to analyze vast amounts of data can enhance fact-checking processes, making accurate information more accessible and reducing the friction involved in verifying truths [10][11] - However, the article warns that reliance on AI for fact-checking could lead to a passive acceptance of information rather than fostering critical thinking skills among users [11][12] Group 3 - The article points out that the impact of AI on education and society largely depends on the business models behind its development, which can influence whether AI serves to enhance human learning or detracts from it [16][19][20] - It suggests that stakeholders, including parents and educators, should advocate for AI tools that prioritize user welfare and societal impact, rather than merely focusing on engagement metrics [19][20] - The article concludes that the trajectory of AI's development will be shaped by the choices made by its users and developers, emphasizing the importance of intentional design and regulation [12][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the marketing landscape has significantly changed in the post-marketing era, affecting both corporate strategies and consumer behavior [1] Group 2 - The spread of false information has accelerated due to the rise of social media and short video platforms, leading to potential public panic and misguided consumer decisions [3] - Many brands exaggerate concepts to attract attention, which can mislead consumers and potentially violate legal regulations, posing risks to companies [5] - Trust in companies has declined as a result of increased false information and exaggerated claims, making it harder for marketing messages to gain consumer trust [7] Group 3 - Consumers are now more focused on their own understanding and judgment, seeking information from multiple sources before making purchasing decisions, which diminishes brand authority [9] - Companies need to adapt to these changes by enhancing information transparency and service quality to build market competitiveness through genuine reputation [9]

Group 1 - Protests in Los Angeles have led to the implementation of a curfew from June 10 at 8 PM to June 11 at 6 AM in certain areas due to ongoing unrest and looting [1][2] - Over the past four days, at least 378 arrests have been made in Los Angeles, with 225 individuals arrested on June 10 alone [1][2] - Protests are also occurring in other major cities across the U.S., including New York, where thousands participated in a significant demonstration on June 10 [3][5] Group 2 - The California government has filed a temporary restraining order against the federal government to prevent military deployment in Los Angeles, which has faced strong opposition from state officials [6] - The deployment of military personnel in the Los Angeles area has reached 4,800, with 700 active-duty Marines on standby [6] - The spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories related to the protests has been noted, with social media platforms being flooded with misleading content [8][9] Group 3 - Tensions between the U.S. and Mexico have escalated, with U.S. officials accusing the Mexican president of inciting protests in Los Angeles, which the Mexican president has denied [11][12] - The presence of Mexican flags at protests has sparked controversy, with some viewing it as evidence of "invasion" while others argue that most protesters are U.S. citizens exercising their rights [11][12]

Group 1 - The article discusses a recent post by Trump on his social media platform Truth Social, where he shared three images of ocean debris with the caption "Chinese gifts in the Pacific" [1] - It highlights that two of the images are old, with one taken in the waters of Indonesia and the other in the Atlantic waters belonging to Honduras [1] - The third image is identified as a manipulated composite, with clear signs of editing [1]