认知差

Search documents
钟玮玮谈投资本质:认清能力圈 坚定信念
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 12:40
骐楷资产董事长钟玮玮,从曾经在股海闯荡的牛散,成长为如今备受关注的知名投资人。他的投资历程 与理念,既展现出超越常人的睿智和淡定,又饱含对投资本质的真诚坚守。 在2024年年底接受观察者网独家采访中,钟玮玮就旗帜鲜明地看好科技产业革命,公开发声看好人工智 能、人形机器人,以及二次元消费、IP消费等行业前景。 近日,在全球经济格局的又一次巨变中,钟玮玮再次向观察者网抽丝剥茧,深刻剖析投资市场本质以及 自己的投资逻辑。 回归本质:以踏实之路铸就投资底气 公开资料显示,钟玮玮毕业于华东政法大学,先后投资了天聚地合、先锋机械等上市公司,并且持股比 例较高(分别位列第三、第二大股东),早年,钟玮玮和其控股公司的名字已出现在多家上市公司前十 大股东名单中,彼时的他已在资本市场崭露头角。 然而,六七年前一次特殊的经历彻底改变了他的投资认知:在一场交流中,他了解到顶级资本拥有令人 惊叹的信息优势——实时掌握被投企业董事长行程、国际大佬访华动态,甚至一晚辗转多场饭局收集信 息。面对这种难以企及的资源优势,钟玮玮没有陷入焦虑,而是"对自己的能力圈做了一次更新认知", 最终去繁化简,选择自己的方法。他常常以"我持有的所有品种要让我 ...
PE必死,并购难存,产业整合基金才是王道!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 08:22
一、传统PE投资基金的消亡 1、PE基金的投资逻辑 传统的PRE-IPO投资逻辑很简单,选择合适的行业,合适的企业,以合理的价格进入后,等待企业的成 长,上市,然后退出,获取收益。 传统PE投资的核心收益来源于两个,一是成长性,二是上市套利差。简单说,就是每股收益的成长, 以及PE倍数的增长。每股收益的成长主要源于行业的成长,以及项目自身的成长。PE倍数的成长主要 源于二级市场的高估值。二级市场的高估值一部分源于企业自身的成长,另一部分源于中国资本市场上 市公司的稀缺性。 过去传统PE比较火热,原因一是确实有少数基金利用这个逻辑赚到了钱,比如押对了某个行业,某个 企业,同时对中国资本市场的高估值判断准确。在这个过程中,部分PE基金具有一定的综合判断能 力,这个判断能力主要是对能否上市的判断。 如果一个基金能够相对在一个成长的行业中,投资一些龙头企业,并且对上市要求理解深刻的话,就会 获得一定的成功概率,因此他们会有部分项目有较高的收益。过去某些券商系基金因为对上市理解深 刻,取得了一部分成绩和成功案例。 2、投资并不赚钱,但能够融到资 即便在PE最黄金的一段时间,他们的整体收益依旧是个谜,也即是说,很少看到P ...
泡泡玛特,怎么这么难学
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-04 03:54
Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has gained significant popularity overseas, evidenced by a recent incident in the UK where a large-scale brawl occurred over the limited edition Labubu toy, leading to the company's decision to halt sales in the UK [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - Pop Mart's stock price surged, reaching a historical high of 235.6 HKD on June 3, with a market capitalization exceeding 310 billion HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 160% [3][4]. - Despite the stock's impressive performance, many retail investors express skepticism, believing it to be another bubble, while institutional investors have largely missed out on this capital feast [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Challenges - Institutional investors have struggled to adapt to the changing consumer landscape, often entering and exiting positions at inopportune times, leading to significant losses [6][7]. - The traditional investment mindset, focused on established metrics like brand strength and cash flow, has hindered many fund managers from recognizing the potential of Pop Mart's innovative business model [8][12]. Group 3: New Consumer Trends and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its unique IP creation model, which has allowed it to generate significant revenue from overseas markets, with international sales projected to reach 30% by mid-2024 [9][10]. - The company has effectively tapped into the emotional and identity-driven consumption trends of the Z generation, which is expected to control 27% of global disposable income by 2025 [15][16]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards emotional fulfillment and collectible items indicates a broader transformation in the consumption landscape, challenging traditional investment paradigms [17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The concentrated ownership structure of Pop Mart, with the top 25 shareholders holding over 85% of shares, raises concerns about stock price volatility and market sensitivity to liquidity [16]. - Despite potential risks, the transition in consumption investment logic is seen as inevitable, with other brands also demonstrating the power of new consumer trends [17].