芳烃日报：产业链边际虽有改善，但淡季存需求疲软预期 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 苯乙烯方面：12 月 12 日至 18 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 34.68 万吨， 较上期+2.38%;工厂产能利用率 69.13%，环比+1.02%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 26.18 万吨，环比-3.89%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.10 万吨，环比上周 -4.23%。截至 12 月 22 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 13.93 万吨，环比上周+3.41%; 华南港口库存在 1.1 万吨，环比上周-26.67%。截至 12 月 17 日，苯乙烯非一体 化利润在-203 元/吨。截至 12 月 17 日，苯乙烯一体化利润在 421.08 元/吨。 苯乙烯在第四季度检修较多，港口库存去化，但根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性较大。 【宏观面分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350 元/吨(-40)，酚酮生产利润-927 元/吨 (+0)，苯胺生产利润 789 元/吨(+178)，己二酸生产利润-1018 元/吨(-11)。己 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. With the end of the peak season, terminal demand may face a weakening trend [6]. - In terms of pure benzene, from the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, it is bullish in the medium and long - term. Although the downstream may have lower - than - expected production due to high inventory and low profit, the upside space may be similar to that in Q3 2025, and the downside space is limited [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Industry Chain Profit Distribution - **Overall Situation**: The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit concentrated upstream. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has declined. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6][7]. - **Specific Indicators**: - **PXN**: The current value is 238.7, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 and a year - on - year increase of 61.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 67 [7]. - **TA Processing Fee**: The current value is 64.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 71.55 and a year - on - year decrease of 272.73. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 0 [7]. - **Styrene/Crude Oil**: At a low level, the current value is 2.02, with a month - on - month increase of 2.02 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.22. The 5 - year same - period percentile is 38, and the 1 - year rolling percentile is 27 [9]. - **PTA/Crude Oil**: It has declined recently. The current value is 1.29, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 54 [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Bearish in the future. The current value is 65.99, with a month - on - month increase of 4.93 and a year - on - year decrease of 8.39. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 20 [10]. - **Naphtha Crack Spread**: In a downward trend. The current value is 89.42, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.51 and a year - on - year decrease of 45.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 31 [10]. - **BZN**: At a low level within the year, it started to rise in October after a continuous decline since mid - August and has declined recently. The current value is 103.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 26.63 and a year - on - year decrease of 114.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 2 [10]. - **Styrene Ethylbenzene Dehydrogenation Profit**: At a low level within the year, it started to decline oscillating at the end of June and has recovered recently. The current value is - 230.72, with a month - on - month increase of 108.2 and a year - on - year decrease of 767.86. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 6 [10]. 3.2 Spot Situation of Each Link - **Naphtha MOPJ**: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis has rebounded recently [29]. - **BZ Paper Cargo Basis**: It has rebounded recently [29]. - **PX (01 Contract Basis)**: It has been running relatively smoothly recently [29]. - **Styrene (11 Contract Basis)**: Near 0, with little change [29]. - **PTA (01 Contract Basis)**: Relatively stable [29]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Upstream**: - **Cracking**: The cracking profit of naphtha in China and the profit of aromatic hydrocarbon combination have corresponding data performance, and the toluene disproportionation spread also has specific values [37][43][46]. - **Capacity and Maintenance**: The annual capacity has increased by 26 (current: 2787, previous: 2761), and the maintenance volume has increased by 0.55 (current: 5.32, previous: 4.77). Some enterprises have new maintenance, and some have ended maintenance [76]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Pure Benzene**: Multiple enterprises have put into production new capacities in 2025. The current annual production capacity growth rate of BZ is 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.1%. The current annual production capacity growth rate of downstream is 4.8%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.5% (or 22.8% considering some uncertain devices) [63][64]. - **PX**: The domestic start - up rate has corresponding data performance [85]. 3.4 Foreign Supply - China's aromatic hydrocarbons are mostly imported from South Korea. South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply. Currently, due to the weakening of gasoline blending, South Korean goods have flowed to China, and the domestic pure benzene supply has increased year - on - year. However, in the future, as South Korean maintenance increases, the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [99][100]. 3.5 Gasoline Blending - Related - **New - Malaysia Region**: Gasoline blending has weakened significantly in the past three months, and the region has returned to a net - import trend of gasoline [111]. - **US Gasoline**: The octane spread is weaker than the same period last year. The refinery profit is good, and high supply is expected to continue. The shutdown of a California refinery provides support for the gasoline crack spread [113]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: - **Styrene**: The profit is at a low level, the start - up rate has declined, and the inventory has increased recently [151][157]. - **Caprolactam**: The start - up rate is at a high level but has declined, the profit is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level within a year [158]. - **Adipic Acid**: The start - up rate is relatively high, and the profit is at a low level [151]. - **Phenol**: The start - up rate is relatively neutral, and the profit level is low [151]. - **Aniline**: The start - up rate is okay, the profit is at a historical low but at a high level within the year [151]. - **PX Downstream (PTA)**: The spot processing fee is about 100 yuan/ton. With the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is continuously compressed [200]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Home Appliances**: The sales of four major home appliances (TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators) have different performance trends. TVs have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing, and refrigerators have different sales trends online and offline [209][210]. - **Automobiles**: In August 2025, automobile sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing significantly [221]. - **Clothing and Textiles**: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].

Report Title - "Naphtha - Aromatics Industry Chain Weekly Report 20251026: Styrene Successfully Put into Production, but Seasonal Decline of Pure Benzene Still Needs Attention" [1][2][57] Core Viewpoints - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. The terminal demand may face a weakening trend after the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [6]. - From the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, pure benzene is bullish in the medium - long term, but in the short term, the upward space may be limited due to high downstream inventory and low profit [68]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Industry Chain Profit Distribution Overall Situation - The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit distribution skewed upstream. Styrene and TA processing fees are low. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has continued to decline. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6]. Specific Indicators - PXN: Currently at 238.7, down 1.13 month - on - month, up 61.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 67 [7]. - TA processing fee: Currently at 64.54, down 71.55 month - on - month, down 272.73 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 0 [7]. - Styrene/crude oil: Currently at 2.02, up 2.02 month - on - month, down 0.22 year - on - year, with a 5 - year same - period percentile of 38 and a 1 - year rolling percentile of 27 [9]. - PTA/crude oil: Currently at 1.29, down 0.08 month - on - month, up 0.01 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 54 [9]. - Crude oil: Bearish in the future. Currently at 65.99, up 4.93 month - on - month, down 8.39 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 20 [10]. - Naphtha crack spread: In a downward trend. Currently at 89.42, down 8.51 month - on - month, down 45.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 31 [10]. - BZN: At a low level within the year. Currently at 103.87, down 26.63 month - on - month, down 114.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 2 [10]. - Styrene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit: At a low level within the year. Currently at - 230.72, up 108.2 month - on - month, down 767.86 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 6 [10]. Spot Situation of Each Link General Principle - The strength of the spot end is mainly reflected by the strength of the basis [26]. Specific Situation - Naphtha MOPJ: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis rebounded [29]. - BZ paper cargo basis: Recently rebounded [29]. - PX (01 contract basis): Recently stable [29]. - Styrene (11 contract basis): Near 0, with little change [29]. - PTA (01 contract basis): Relatively stable [29]. Domestic Supply Upstream - Refinery cracking profit: Data shows the situation of cracking profit, capacity utilization, and output of ethylene from naphtha cracking in China [37]. - Aromatic combination profit: Data shows the profit of aromatic combination in China [43]. - Toluene disproportionation spread: Data shows the toluene disproportionation spread in China and Asia [46][51]. - PX domestic operating rate: There are data on the domestic operating rate of PX [55]. Mid - stream (Pure Benzene) - Capacity investment progress: As of October 3, 2025, the annual production capacity growth rate of BZ (petroleum benzene) was 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate for 2025 was 10.1%. The production capacity growth rate of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene was 4.8% as of September 2025, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate for 2025 was 10.5% (or 2.8% considering some uncertain projects) [63][64]. - Production and operation situation: The recent start - up is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, but there may be a marginal seasonal decline in the future. The weekly output decreased, the start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased recently [75][78]. Foreign Supply General Principle - China's aromatics are mostly imported from South Korea, so South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply [99]. Recent Situation - Logistics has a great impact on the pricing of pure benzene. China's import dependence on pure benzene is 15% - 20%. From January to September, the cumulative pure benzene production increased by 5%, and the total supply (production + net import) increased by 11%. However, in the future, South Korea's maintenance will increase, and the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [100]. Blending - related Singapore Blending - The Singapore and Malaysia regions have changed from a net gasoline - importing region to a net - exporting region due to naphtha blending. Recently, blending has weakened significantly, and the gasoline in the Singapore - Malaysia region has returned to a net - importing trend [110][111]. US Gasoline Fundamentals - The octane spread of US gasoline is weaker than the same period last year, close to the level before 2022. The gasoline crack spread is currently supported by unexpected maintenance of Nigerian refineries and demand recovery at the end of the summer peak season. The refinery profit in the US is good, and high supply is expected to continue [113]. Blending Economics - The blending economics of toluene, MX, and PX in the Americas and Asia are presented in the report [132][141]. Downstream Demand Pure Benzene Downstream - Styrene: Low profit, declining start - up rate, and increasing inventory [151][157]. - Caprolactam: High start - up rate, low profit, and high inventory [158]. - Adipic acid: High start - up rate, low profit [151]. - Phenol: Neutral start - up rate, low profit level [151]. - Aniline: Good start - up rate, historical low profit but high within the year [151]. PX Downstream (PTA) - PTA profit: The spot processing fee is at a level of about 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee is continuously compressed due to the future supply pressure after the commissioning of new plants [200]. - PTA start - up rate and inventory: There are data on the start - up rate, spot processing fee, and social total inventory of PTA [201]. Terminal Demand - Home appliance industry: The sales of color TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators have different trends. Color TV sales have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing functions, and refrigerators are affected by previous over - consumption [209][210]. - Automobile industry: In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.4% year - on - year and 10.1% month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 26.8% year - on - year [221]. - Clothing and textile industry: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].