能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 出口支撑与装置重启博弈，芳烃偏强震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：2 月 24 日苯乙烯期货报收 7669 元/吨；纯苯期货报收 6199 元/吨。 成本：2 月 24 日布油主力收盘 62.8 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），WTI 原 油主力合约收盘 67.5 美元/桶（+0 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5990 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 30.5 万吨（+0 万吨），库存持 平。苯乙烯方面，华东港口库存 10.9 万吨（+0.8 万吨），库存缓慢累 库。 需求：纯苯下游整体开工上行。苯乙烯下游进入淡季，除 ABS 外开工 小幅下滑。 （2）观点 纯苯：原油受地缘局势扰动维持偏强，成本端对芳烃链条形成支撑。纯苯 供应端开工持续回升，进口资源自低位修复，港口库存虽有波动但整体 仍处高位区间，基本面压力尚未完全缓解。需求端呈现结构分化特征，苯 乙烯开工回升带动刚需改善，酚酮、苯胺及己二酸维持高负荷运行，对纯 苯形成稳定消耗；己内酰胺链条表现偏弱，对需求增量贡献 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 2026年以来，化工板块表现亮眼——成交额稳步放大，机构资金持续加仓，芳烃、聚酯产业链等基本面 偏强的板块已率先反弹，主流化工品价格稳步上行。我国化工行业是否具备底部特征？马年伊始，在政 策助力、供给端收紧的驱动下，化工行业能否迎来新一轮上行周期？ 乙二醇 成本底部有支撑 自2025年起，随着裕龙岛炼化一体化项目、宁夏畅亿等装置相继投产，乙二醇产能增长通道重新开启。 进入2026年，巴斯夫等新装置的投产预期进一步强化了市场的远期供应压力预期。 从装置运行情况看，2026年年初至今，乙二醇行业平均开工率为62.55%，虽低于2025年同期水平，但 较2024年同期已提升2.14个百分点。值得关注的是，在产能基数持续扩大的背景下，截至2月12日当 周，全国乙二醇累计产量已达237.51万吨，同比增长1.37%，创下近年来同期高位。与此同时，春节前 后行业检修量维持在偏低水平，装置开工率延续高位运行。开工率高位运行、检修量偏低、产量创同期 新高的特征，已从源头对乙二醇期现价格形成实质性压制，也成为本轮高库存的根本原因。 受春节期间物流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The marginal improvement in the aromatics industry chain is observed, but there are expectations of weak demand during the off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Production profits: Caprolactam -350 yuan/ton (-40), phenol - acetone -927 yuan/ton (+0), aniline 789 yuan/ton (+178), adipic acid -1018 yuan/ton (-11) [1] - Operating rates: Caprolactam 69.20% (-5.37%), phenol 76.00% (-3.50%), aniline 61.35% (-14.59%), adipic acid 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] - Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China increased, with concentrated arrivals of imports, leading to significant port inventory pressure. However, subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, and currently, there is a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - From December 12th to 18th, China's total styrene factory output was 34.68 tons, a 2.38% increase from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase month - on - month [2] - The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS downstream of styrene was 26.18 tons, a 3.89% decrease month - on - month [2] - Styrene factory inventory was 17.10 tons, a 4.23% decrease from the previous week. As of December 22nd, the inventory in East China's ports was 13.93 tons, a 3.41% increase from the previous week, and the inventory in South China's ports was 1.1 tons, a 26.67% decrease from the previous week [2] - As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was -203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2] - There were many styrene overhauls in the fourth quarter, and port inventory was depleted. However, according to industry past rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", guiding foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern services, which will come into effect on February 1st, 2026 [3] - In November, the country's total electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis Pure Benzene - Pure benzene continued its overall volatile trend during the day, with significant upward pressure. Due to inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it still showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous low [4] Styrene - Styrene continued its rebound trend, closing up 1.67%. It initially broke through the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, but considering the seasonal inventory accumulation period in the first quarter of next year, the upward space is currently limited. Continue to observe the pressure of the 20 - day moving average on the weekly line, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. With the end of the peak season, terminal demand may face a weakening trend [6]. - In terms of pure benzene, from the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, it is bullish in the medium and long - term. Although the downstream may have lower - than - expected production due to high inventory and low profit, the upside space may be similar to that in Q3 2025, and the downside space is limited [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Industry Chain Profit Distribution - **Overall Situation**: The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit concentrated upstream. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has declined. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6][7]. - **Specific Indicators**: - **PXN**: The current value is 238.7, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.13 and a year - on - year increase of 61.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 67 [7]. - **TA Processing Fee**: The current value is 64.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 71.55 and a year - on - year decrease of 272.73. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 0 [7]. - **Styrene/Crude Oil**: At a low level, the current value is 2.02, with a month - on - month increase of 2.02 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.22. The 5 - year same - period percentile is 38, and the 1 - year rolling percentile is 27 [9]. - **PTA/Crude Oil**: It has declined recently. The current value is 1.29, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 54 [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Bearish in the future. The current value is 65.99, with a month - on - month increase of 4.93 and a year - on - year decrease of 8.39. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 20 [10]. - **Naphtha Crack Spread**: In a downward trend. The current value is 89.42, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.51 and a year - on - year decrease of 45.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 31 [10]. - **BZN**: At a low level within the year, it started to rise in October after a continuous decline since mid - August and has declined recently. The current value is 103.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 26.63 and a year - on - year decrease of 114.25. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 2 [10]. - **Styrene Ethylbenzene Dehydrogenation Profit**: At a low level within the year, it started to decline oscillating at the end of June and has recovered recently. The current value is - 230.72, with a month - on - month increase of 108.2 and a year - on - year decrease of 767.86. The 1 - year rolling percentile is 6 [10]. 3.2 Spot Situation of Each Link - **Naphtha MOPJ**: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis has rebounded recently [29]. - **BZ Paper Cargo Basis**: It has rebounded recently [29]. - **PX (01 Contract Basis)**: It has been running relatively smoothly recently [29]. - **Styrene (11 Contract Basis)**: Near 0, with little change [29]. - **PTA (01 Contract Basis)**: Relatively stable [29]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - **Upstream**: - **Cracking**: The cracking profit of naphtha in China and the profit of aromatic hydrocarbon combination have corresponding data performance, and the toluene disproportionation spread also has specific values [37][43][46]. - **Capacity and Maintenance**: The annual capacity has increased by 26 (current: 2787, previous: 2761), and the maintenance volume has increased by 0.55 (current: 5.32, previous: 4.77). Some enterprises have new maintenance, and some have ended maintenance [76]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Pure Benzene**: Multiple enterprises have put into production new capacities in 2025. The current annual production capacity growth rate of BZ is 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.1%. The current annual production capacity growth rate of downstream is 4.8%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is 10.5% (or 22.8% considering some uncertain devices) [63][64]. - **PX**: The domestic start - up rate has corresponding data performance [85]. 3.4 Foreign Supply - China's aromatic hydrocarbons are mostly imported from South Korea. South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply. Currently, due to the weakening of gasoline blending, South Korean goods have flowed to China, and the domestic pure benzene supply has increased year - on - year. However, in the future, as South Korean maintenance increases, the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [99][100]. 3.5 Gasoline Blending - Related - **New - Malaysia Region**: Gasoline blending has weakened significantly in the past three months, and the region has returned to a net - import trend of gasoline [111]. - **US Gasoline**: The octane spread is weaker than the same period last year. The refinery profit is good, and high supply is expected to continue. The shutdown of a California refinery provides support for the gasoline crack spread [113]. 3.6 Downstream Demand - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: - **Styrene**: The profit is at a low level, the start - up rate has declined, and the inventory has increased recently [151][157]. - **Caprolactam**: The start - up rate is at a high level but has declined, the profit is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level within a year [158]. - **Adipic Acid**: The start - up rate is relatively high, and the profit is at a low level [151]. - **Phenol**: The start - up rate is relatively neutral, and the profit level is low [151]. - **Aniline**: The start - up rate is okay, the profit is at a historical low but at a high level within the year [151]. - **PX Downstream (PTA)**: The spot processing fee is about 100 yuan/ton. With the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is continuously compressed [200]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Home Appliances**: The sales of four major home appliances (TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators) have different performance trends. TVs have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing, and refrigerators have different sales trends online and offline [209][210]. - **Automobiles**: In August 2025, automobile sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing significantly [221]. - **Clothing and Textiles**: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].

Report Title - "Naphtha - Aromatics Industry Chain Weekly Report 20251026: Styrene Successfully Put into Production, but Seasonal Decline of Pure Benzene Still Needs Attention" [1][2][57] Core Viewpoints - The PTA chain is superior to the styrene chain, and the profit distribution is biased towards the upstream. The processing fees of downstream styrene and TA are at low levels. The terminal demand may face a weakening trend after the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [6]. - From the perspective of upstream and downstream production capacity investment, pure benzene is bullish in the medium - long term, but in the short term, the upward space may be limited due to high downstream inventory and low profit [68]. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Industry Chain Profit Distribution Overall Situation - The PTA chain is better than the styrene chain, with profit distribution skewed upstream. Styrene and TA processing fees are low. Naphtha has weakened recently, while BZN has risen, and styrene profit has continued to decline. PXN is neutral - high annually, and TA processing fee is at a low level [6]. Specific Indicators - PXN: Currently at 238.7, down 1.13 month - on - month, up 61.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 67 [7]. - TA processing fee: Currently at 64.54, down 71.55 month - on - month, down 272.73 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 0 [7]. - Styrene/crude oil: Currently at 2.02, up 2.02 month - on - month, down 0.22 year - on - year, with a 5 - year same - period percentile of 38 and a 1 - year rolling percentile of 27 [9]. - PTA/crude oil: Currently at 1.29, down 0.08 month - on - month, up 0.01 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 54 [9]. - Crude oil: Bearish in the future. Currently at 65.99, up 4.93 month - on - month, down 8.39 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 20 [10]. - Naphtha crack spread: In a downward trend. Currently at 89.42, down 8.51 month - on - month, down 45.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 31 [10]. - BZN: At a low level within the year. Currently at 103.87, down 26.63 month - on - month, down 114.25 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 2 [10]. - Styrene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit: At a low level within the year. Currently at - 230.72, up 108.2 month - on - month, down 767.86 year - on - year, with a 1 - year rolling percentile of 6 [10]. Spot Situation of Each Link General Principle - The strength of the spot end is mainly reflected by the strength of the basis [26]. Specific Situation - Naphtha MOPJ: After the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery completed maintenance in early October and planned another one - month maintenance recently, naphtha strengthened, and the basis rebounded [29]. - BZ paper cargo basis: Recently rebounded [29]. - PX (01 contract basis): Recently stable [29]. - Styrene (11 contract basis): Near 0, with little change [29]. - PTA (01 contract basis): Relatively stable [29]. Domestic Supply Upstream - Refinery cracking profit: Data shows the situation of cracking profit, capacity utilization, and output of ethylene from naphtha cracking in China [37]. - Aromatic combination profit: Data shows the profit of aromatic combination in China [43]. - Toluene disproportionation spread: Data shows the toluene disproportionation spread in China and Asia [46][51]. - PX domestic operating rate: There are data on the domestic operating rate of PX [55]. Mid - stream (Pure Benzene) - Capacity investment progress: As of October 3, 2025, the annual production capacity growth rate of BZ (petroleum benzene) was 6.5%, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate for 2025 was 10.1%. The production capacity growth rate of the five major downstream industries of pure benzene was 4.8% as of September 2025, and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate for 2025 was 10.5% (or 2.8% considering some uncertain projects) [63][64]. - Production and operation situation: The recent start - up is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, but there may be a marginal seasonal decline in the future. The weekly output decreased, the start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased recently [75][78]. Foreign Supply General Principle - China's aromatics are mostly imported from South Korea, so South Korea's production and export situation can reflect the marginal change of foreign supply [99]. Recent Situation - Logistics has a great impact on the pricing of pure benzene. China's import dependence on pure benzene is 15% - 20%. From January to September, the cumulative pure benzene production increased by 5%, and the total supply (production + net import) increased by 11%. However, in the future, South Korea's maintenance will increase, and the goods sent to China will decrease marginally, which is bullish for pure benzene [100]. Blending - related Singapore Blending - The Singapore and Malaysia regions have changed from a net gasoline - importing region to a net - exporting region due to naphtha blending. Recently, blending has weakened significantly, and the gasoline in the Singapore - Malaysia region has returned to a net - importing trend [110][111]. US Gasoline Fundamentals - The octane spread of US gasoline is weaker than the same period last year, close to the level before 2022. The gasoline crack spread is currently supported by unexpected maintenance of Nigerian refineries and demand recovery at the end of the summer peak season. The refinery profit in the US is good, and high supply is expected to continue [113]. Blending Economics - The blending economics of toluene, MX, and PX in the Americas and Asia are presented in the report [132][141]. Downstream Demand Pure Benzene Downstream - Styrene: Low profit, declining start - up rate, and increasing inventory [151][157]. - Caprolactam: High start - up rate, low profit, and high inventory [158]. - Adipic acid: High start - up rate, low profit [151]. - Phenol: Neutral start - up rate, low profit level [151]. - Aniline: Good start - up rate, historical low profit but high within the year [151]. PX Downstream (PTA) - PTA profit: The spot processing fee is at a level of about 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee is continuously compressed due to the future supply pressure after the commissioning of new plants [200]. - PTA start - up rate and inventory: There are data on the start - up rate, spot processing fee, and social total inventory of PTA [201]. Terminal Demand - Home appliance industry: The sales of color TVs, air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators have different trends. Color TV sales have good product and technology upgrades, air conditioners benefit from national subsidies, washing machines are driven by partition - washing functions, and refrigerators are affected by previous over - consumption [209][210]. - Automobile industry: In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.4% year - on - year and 10.1% month - on - month, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 26.8% year - on - year [221]. - Clothing and textile industry: Domestic sales in August were better than the same period last year, but exports were weaker [231].