1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. [3] - In the short term, the prices of various energy and chemical products will mainly fluctuate, with different influencing factors and trends for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are loosening, and supply pressure persists. The price will fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the decline in US commercial crude inventories, and the support from refined oil cracking spreads. [7] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price will oscillate weakly. Factors such as OPEC+ production increase, the end of the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the possible restart of Russia-Ukraine talks have led to a high inventory and a weak demand, resulting in a high overvaluation of the absolute price. [8] - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price will oscillate weakly. The supply may decrease due to the reduction of Russian exports, but the demand is weak, and the cracking spread is also weak. [8] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength of refined oil supports low-sulfur fuel oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current low valuation and the support from refined oil prices will cause it to fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **Methanol**: High inventory restricts the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It will oscillate at a low level. The inventory is still at a historical high, and although there is a slight decline, it still suppresses the price. [25] - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price oscillates narrowly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has certain support, but the market sentiment is uncertain after the spot price increase. [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The boosting effect is limited, and there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to decline in the off-season, resulting in a limited upward space for the price. [17] - **PX**: Rumors of blending oil have disturbed the market again. The price will oscillate slightly upward in the short term, affected by market sentiment and rumors of device maintenance. [11] - **PTA**: The upstream supports the valuation, and the new downstream filament production capacity is put into operation, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. The price will fluctuate with the upstream cost, and the processing profit is temporarily supported. [13] - **Short Fiber**: The fundamentals are average, and it follows the upstream passively. The price will oscillate with the upstream, and the processing fee may be compressed. [20] - **Bottle Chip**: The slight rebound of upstream raw materials supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support. [22] - **Propylene**: The spot price strengthens in the short term, and PL oscillates. The spot has short-term support, and the demand has increased due to the restart of downstream maintenance devices. [30] - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and high inventory. [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price drops, and the maintenance support is limited, so it oscillates. The price will oscillate, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the high inventory of the upstream and middle reaches. [28] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending oil disturbs the market, and it oscillates after the rebound. The price will oscillate, affected by the uncertainty of the blending oil narrative and the pressure from the pure benzene inventory. [16] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the price, and it may be anchored to production reduction. The price will be cautiously weak, and the market focuses on the production reduction logic and marginal device dynamics. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply and demand, it will oscillate. The supply and demand are expected to be poor, and the price will oscillate due to the possible increase in cost caused by the decline in liquid chlorine price. [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for the future price trends of different varieties. For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 12, a change of - 4. [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also change. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 15, a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, PTA and ethylene glycol, etc., have also changed, which reflects the relative price relationship between different varieties. [36] 3.3 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the text, so it is skipped. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and plate index of commodities have different degrees of increase. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2553.16, an increase of 0.73%. [278] - **Energy Index**: On November 19, 2025, the energy index increased by 1.26% today, 2.26% in the past 5 days, 2.56% in the past month, and decreased by 5.69% since the beginning of the year. [279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by geopolitical factors and the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, leading to a bullish trend in gold prices, with significant increases observed on Monday and Tuesday [2][4] - Gold prices have recently surpassed the 3700 mark for the first time, indicating a strong upward trend, although the market is expected to experience fluctuations and pullbacks, providing opportunities for buying [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to have a substantial impact on both gold and silver markets, necessitating careful risk management [2][4] Group 2 - The trading strategy for the Asian and European sessions is to focus on buying during pullbacks, with key support levels identified at 3685 and 3675, while aiming for targets around 3710 and potentially 3750 [4][5] - The market sentiment suggests that after the Federal Reserve's decision, there may be a significant downward adjustment in gold prices, with a critical support level at 3620 to watch for potential changes in the current bullish trend [5][6] - In the silver market, a bullish outlook is maintained, with a focus on buying near the 42 support level, while caution is advised against chasing prices higher due to potential volatility [6][7] Group 3 - The oil market has shown positive momentum, with recent price increases reaching around 64.5, and further upward potential is anticipated, with key resistance levels at 66 [7] - Domestic fuel prices have also risen, with targets set at 2850 and 3000, indicating a continued bullish trend, although caution against chasing prices is advised [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The bullish trend for gold remains unchanged, with a focus on waiting for pullbacks to enter long positions, particularly at support levels of 3525 and 3500 [4][5] - Recent price movements show a significant increase from 3410 to 3550, indicating strong market momentum that is difficult to analyze through technical means [5] - The domestic gold market has mirrored international trends, with significant price increases observed, and the recommendation is to maintain a bullish stance without shorting [5][6] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - International silver experienced a predicted pullback, with key support at 40; a break below this level could signal a shift in market strength [6] - The upper resistance levels for silver are noted at 41 and 41.5, with expectations of another upward movement before potentially reaching a peak [6] - Domestic silver also showed a pullback, with a focus on resistance at 9950 and support at 9700, indicating a cautious approach to trading [6] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - The oil market is currently observing upward momentum, with support at 62.5 and potential for further increases if the price breaks above 65 [6] - Recent trading has seen oil prices close at around 66, suggesting a stronger performance compared to gold [6] - The recommendation is to continue a bullish outlook on oil, with a target of reaching 68 to 70 [6] Group 4: Fuel Oil Market Commentary - Domestic fuel oil has shown a successful rise, with current prices around 2840; however, it is advised to take profits and remain cautious [7] - The market is expected to oscillate between 2700 and 3000, indicating a non-trending environment where traders should wait for pullbacks to enter long positions [7]