板块逻辑： 路透数据显示原油仍处于库存压力显现、供应仍偏过剩格局下的地缘 溢价摇摆阶段。强预期对纯苯、苯乙烯持续形成支撑，在化工品中表现偏 强。短期PVC存"抢出口"、国内供应端政策预期提振，财联社报道称印 尼煤炭出口扰动，亦对PVC形成支撑，但基本面压力未扭转，盘面或先扬 后抑，整体偏震荡。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：沥青原料供应扰动有望缓解 高硫燃油：燃油期价跟随原油走强 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：港口库存重回去库，海外局势偶有波折，甲醇区间震荡 尿素：收单好转情绪升温，尿素震荡整理 乙二醇：近端到货偏多，价格承压运行 PX：价格止跌企稳，商谈回暖，PX短期震荡整理 PTA：强预期弱现实，价格区间整理 短纤：下游放假停车，需求清淡 瓶片：库存结构优化，瓶片效益维持强势 丙烯：现货压力不大，PL震荡 PP：节前下游心态谨慎，PP回落后震荡 塑料：上游开工小幅提升，塑料回落后震荡 苯乙烯：季节性累库或开启，但苯乙烯利润不易压缩 PVC：煤炭进口扰动，PVC反弹谨慎 烧碱：需求阶段改善，烧碱暂观望 展望：美伊关系动向支撑原油价格，化工震荡思路对待。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦升级，互相大幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-04 地缘扰动油价延续⾼波动，烧碱价格趋 弱关注上游减产⻛险 路透数据显示，美国上周API原油库存大幅下降1107.9万桶，此外汽 油累库柴油去库，寒潮影响有所显现。地缘局势对油价持续形成扰动，路 透报道2月3日美籍油轮遭伊朗武装船只逼近，美国击落一架靠近"林肯 号"航母的伊朗无人机，地缘担忧再度升级，路透报道特朗普表示美国将 对印度关税降至18%，以换取印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，对俄油后期供应 形成威胁。总体来看，俄罗斯及伊朗因素导致原油地缘溢价持续摇摆，关 注后续美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗斯石油购买进展。 板块逻辑： 路透及阿格斯报道国内地炼购买伊朗及加拿大原油以替代委内瑞拉原 油，重质原料重构过程中沥青成本提升的预期迎来兑现期，路透显示美国 已批准向委内瑞拉供应稀释剂，全球重油供应有望逐步宽松。纯苯及苯乙 烯受后期春检去库预期支撑震荡偏强，隆众资讯显示伊朗甲醇装置重启， 但路透显示美伊局势仍存利多风险，烧碱价格趋弱后上游减产风险增大， 大多数能化品存在预期层面的阶段性支撑。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青 ...

PresentationChristopher BelshamCEO & Executive Director Hello, and welcome to the NWF Group results presentation for the half year ended 30th of November 2025. I'm Chris Belsham, the CEO, and I'm joined today by Katie Shortland, our CFO. We'll start with the highlights of the period. Overall, I'm pleased that we have continued our strategic momentum, delivered solid performances in Food and Feeds, all whilst navigating very difficult market conditions in Fuels. So starting with strategic actions. During th ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of oil and gas are rising, and due to the cold snap, coal prices are also strong, providing cost support for chemicals. Chemicals also have some industry benefits. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of spring maintenance, and the market anticipates the possible "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak after the Spring Festival. The futures prices have limited adjustment space and will generally fluctuate [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and chemicals should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and oil prices continue to oscillate. Supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term [3][6]. - **Main Logic**: Global on - land crude oil inventories have been accumulating, overseas refined oil inventories are under pressure, and the supply surplus pattern remains. The shutdown of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield supports the Western market. Geopolitics is the short - term focus, and previous military actions between Iran and Israel had little impact on oil supply. If relevant tail risks materialize, oil prices are likely to rise and then fall. If the Iranian situation eases, oil prices may approach the lower limit of the oscillation range [6]. Asphalt - **View**: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downward, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - term [3][6][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will increase its oil production and exports. The current asphalt market is still trading the reduction of discounts due to the US selling Venezuelan oil at the current price, which supports asphalt costs. However, it will lead to abundant long - term supply, which is a major negative for asphalt. The US - Iran situation has not further escalated, and the decline in crude oil has led to the downward revision of asphalt's high valuation. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. Venezuelan oil production growth expectations will long - term pressure high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which pressures high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. The US - Iran situation has temporarily cooled, and the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has significantly declined. Although Iraq may resume fuel - oil power generation in the short - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negatives for high - sulfur fuel oil. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a cooling trend, but the expansion of the asphalt - fuel oil spread may increase the processing demand for fuel oil [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely and is expected to oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels, with limited demand space, but its current valuation is low and it follows crude - oil fluctuations [3][9]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude - oil fluctuations. The expected release of Venezuelan oil has led to an increase in the Brent - Dubai crude oil spread and a rebound in the low - high sulfur spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. PX - **View**: The bottom of polyester load is relatively confirmed, and PX's profitability has stabilized. In the short - term, PX prices will seek upward drivers without new negatives, and PXN is expected to remain in the range of [300, 350] dollars/ton [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Crude - oil prices oscillate in a range, naphtha remains stagnant, and PX strengthened significantly in the afternoon. Macroeconomic利好 policies were successively introduced, boosting market sentiment. There were rumors of individual factories' far - month maintenance plans, which stimulated the market. The bottom of polyester's new - year start - up is confirmed, and PTA's good profitability supports the upstream, so PX's profitability has stabilized after half a month of correction [11]. PTA - **View**: Funds have flowed in again, and TA's profit has expanded. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - spread logic [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are tepid, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, and TA rose rapidly in the afternoon with a large increase in positions and inflow of funds. Fundamentally, the low point of downstream polyester load is confirmed, and demand has bottomed out. Without new negatives, prices are expected to be warm in the short - term. With the rapid rise of futures prices, the basis is expected to be weak overall [12]. Pure Benzene - **View**: Port de - stocking is obvious, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. Short - term high inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The East - China pure - benzene port has de - stocked for the first time in two months. Low - price pure benzene and strong downstream styrene have created a market waiting for a rise. Downstream profit - locking has pushed up the price of pure benzene. There is a possibility of the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene. In the chemical industry, pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a long - position choice for funds [15]. Styrene - **View**: Supply and demand are tight, and styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term under the repeated stimulation of exports [16]. - **Main Logic**: The strength of styrene comes from export disturbances, geopolitical disturbances leading to rising crude - oil prices, and a positive overall commodity atmosphere. The expected inventory accumulation in January has been reversed, and the non - integrated device profit is relatively high. Before the restart of Sinochem Quanzhou in late January, the supply - demand pattern is favorable [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The main - port inventory continues to accumulate, and ethylene glycol is in a difficult situation. In the short - term, prices will remain in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas imports are still large, and there is obvious seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure. Domestic supply is shrinking slowly, some port inventories are tight, and polyester factories are gradually reducing production, making it difficult to reverse the weak pattern [18]. Short - Fiber - **View**: Short - fiber moderately follows the rise, and profits are compressed. Prices will follow the upstream for adjustment, and processing fees are under some pressure [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials have risen sharply, and short - fiber sales have improved slightly. However, due to the strong short - term cost, short - fiber profits are under pressure, and the absolute price is expected to moderately follow the rise [20]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: Supply continues to compress, and processing fees have a repair expectation. The absolute value will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees at the bottom has increased [21]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials rose in the afternoon, and polyester bottle - chips followed the cost increase. The trading atmosphere was good, and the price of polyester bottle - chips will mainly follow the upstream in the short - term, with support for processing fees at the bottom [21]. Methanol - **View**: The inland area remains weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. Methanol will oscillate in a range in the short - term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and producers are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. Coastal port high - inventory pressure is significant, and the shutdown of the Zhejiang Xingxing device has further weakened the MTO external - procurement demand. Short - term negatives are stronger than the positives of overseas macro uncertainties [24]. Urea - **View**: New orders at low prices have improved, and urea has stabilized and oscillated. The market has no substantial guiding information, and the trading rhythm is adjusted according to prices. In the short - term, the fundamentals have little change, and it will oscillate [25]. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of urea remains at a high level, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The demand for compound fertilizers and other industries is relatively rigid, and the agricultural demand in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is also advancing. After several days of price decline, new orders at low prices have improved, and the market has temporarily stabilized [25]. LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Maintenance has slightly decreased, and plastic will oscillate. In the short - term, it will oscillate [29]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. Fundamentally, the pressure has been released, and after the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired. Maintenance has decreased recently, and demand is in the off - season. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and the improvement in inventory and downstream confidence, the downside space is limited [29]. PP - **View**: Maintenance and macro - expectations still provide support, and PP should be viewed as oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upside space is limited. The downstream is in the off - season, and trading volume has decreased recently. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and short - term maintenance support, the downside space is limited [30]. PL - **View**: Supply has tightened, and PL will oscillate. It will oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still provides support. Individual domestic devices have stopped, and the market supply has tightened again. However, downstream follow - up is weak, suppressing the overall buying rhythm. Enterprises mainly maintain stable prices for sales, and the actual - order price range has little change. Short - term powder profits fluctuate slightly, and downstream demand support in the off - season is limited [31]. PVC - **View**: "Rushing for exports" provides support, and the downside space should be carefully considered. It is expected to oscillate. The cancellation of export tax - refunds and the expected increase in the external - market price may promote short - term export - rushing, but in the long - term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the market will be oscillating [34]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the export tax - refund for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st. At the micro - level, short - term "rushing for exports" may promote de - stocking, but long - term supply - demand expectations are still under pressure. Profits have improved, boosting the production willingness of marginal enterprises. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and restocking willingness is poor. Upstream price increases are not conducive to export orders, and the sustainability of this week's export orders needs to be observed. The supply of calcium carbide has decreased while demand has increased, and its price may be boosted. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and its profit is squeezed, and the price is under pressure [34]. Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it is running weakly. Inventory pressure is large, and with stable costs, profits may still be squeezed, and the market will run weakly [35]. - **Main Logic**: The weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. Alumina marginal - device profits are poor, and production cuts may be slow. Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, and the purchase price has been lowered again. The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will marginally boost caustic - soda demand. Non - aluminum start - up is weakening, and the restocking willingness of the middle and lower reaches is not high. Upstream start - up has changed little, and caustic - soda production remains at a historical high. The "rushing for exports" of epichlorohydrin supports the price of liquid chlorine, and the short - term cost of caustic soda may be stable [35]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are given, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content, only the variety names are listed. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2414.16, down 0.15%. The commodity 20 index is 2773.48, down 0.23%. The industrial - products index is 2308.47, down 0.34% [281]. - **Energy Index**: On January 20, 2026, the energy index was 1099.40, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 2.59%, a 1 - month increase of 2.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [283].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. [3] - In the short term, the prices of various energy and chemical products will mainly fluctuate, with different influencing factors and trends for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are loosening, and supply pressure persists. The price will fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the decline in US commercial crude inventories, and the support from refined oil cracking spreads. [7] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price will oscillate weakly. Factors such as OPEC+ production increase, the end of the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the possible restart of Russia-Ukraine talks have led to a high inventory and a weak demand, resulting in a high overvaluation of the absolute price. [8] - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price will oscillate weakly. The supply may decrease due to the reduction of Russian exports, but the demand is weak, and the cracking spread is also weak. [8] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength of refined oil supports low-sulfur fuel oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current low valuation and the support from refined oil prices will cause it to fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **Methanol**: High inventory restricts the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It will oscillate at a low level. The inventory is still at a historical high, and although there is a slight decline, it still suppresses the price. [25] - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price oscillates narrowly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has certain support, but the market sentiment is uncertain after the spot price increase. [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The boosting effect is limited, and there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to decline in the off-season, resulting in a limited upward space for the price. [17] - **PX**: Rumors of blending oil have disturbed the market again. The price will oscillate slightly upward in the short term, affected by market sentiment and rumors of device maintenance. [11] - **PTA**: The upstream supports the valuation, and the new downstream filament production capacity is put into operation, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. The price will fluctuate with the upstream cost, and the processing profit is temporarily supported. [13] - **Short Fiber**: The fundamentals are average, and it follows the upstream passively. The price will oscillate with the upstream, and the processing fee may be compressed. [20] - **Bottle Chip**: The slight rebound of upstream raw materials supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support. [22] - **Propylene**: The spot price strengthens in the short term, and PL oscillates. The spot has short-term support, and the demand has increased due to the restart of downstream maintenance devices. [30] - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and high inventory. [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price drops, and the maintenance support is limited, so it oscillates. The price will oscillate, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the high inventory of the upstream and middle reaches. [28] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending oil disturbs the market, and it oscillates after the rebound. The price will oscillate, affected by the uncertainty of the blending oil narrative and the pressure from the pure benzene inventory. [16] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the price, and it may be anchored to production reduction. The price will be cautiously weak, and the market focuses on the production reduction logic and marginal device dynamics. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply and demand, it will oscillate. The supply and demand are expected to be poor, and the price will oscillate due to the possible increase in cost caused by the decline in liquid chlorine price. [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for the future price trends of different varieties. For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 12, a change of - 4. [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also change. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 15, a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, PTA and ethylene glycol, etc., have also changed, which reflects the relative price relationship between different varieties. [36] 3.3 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the text, so it is skipped. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and plate index of commodities have different degrees of increase. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2553.16, an increase of 0.73%. [278] - **Energy Index**: On November 19, 2025, the energy index increased by 1.26% today, 2.26% in the past 5 days, 2.56% in the past month, and decreased by 5.69% since the beginning of the year. [279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]