分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】特朗普关税政策违法：背景、 后续及影响》2026-02-22 《【粤开宏观】2026 年地方政府怎么干— —下篇：任务怎么做？》2026-02-13 《【粤开宏观】2026 年地方政府怎么干— —上篇：目标怎么定？》2026-02-13 《【粤开宏观】透视 2026 物价新局：基期 轮换、体感差异与回升之路》2026-02-11 《【粤开宏观】从地方调研看宏观经济：市 场预期、收入分配与微观活力》2026-02-09 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】1949-2025 年中国各省份 财政收入排名变迁 2026 年 03 月 02 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 摘要 近期，财政部及各地方财政厅（局）陆续发布了 2025 年财政收支及结构数据。 在财政货币政策发力稳经济、"反内卷"政策带动工业企业盈利改善、地方大 力盘活存量资源增收和强化征管 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and addressing feedback from the central inspection to enhance the economic and social development of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) [2] - The focus is on revitalizing idle state-owned assets, improving management, and ensuring effective governance to enhance the financial capabilities of the XPCC [3] - The need for a "big finance" concept is highlighted, aiming to improve the precision and effectiveness of financial resource allocation while adhering to strict fiscal discipline [3] Group 2 - Agriculture is identified as a foundational and advantageous industry for the XPCC, with a call for modernization and effective land management to optimize resource utilization [4] - The establishment of a demonstration area for water-saving agriculture is prioritized, emphasizing technological support and market awareness to enhance agricultural productivity and quality [4] - The XPCC aims to strengthen its position as a key supplier of high-quality agricultural and livestock products, focusing on production capacity and ecological sustainability [4] Group 3 - The importance of strengthening party leadership and addressing inspection feedback is stressed, with a focus on achieving tangible results in governance and performance [5] - The need for comprehensive and targeted rectification of issues identified in inspections is emphasized, alongside the promotion of a correct view of performance [5] - The commitment to strict party governance and the implementation of anti-corruption measures is reiterated, aiming to create a positive political environment for development [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province is implementing a significant reform in its fiscal system, focusing on increasing local financial autonomy by adjusting the revenue-sharing ratio between provincial and municipal levels, resulting in a notable decrease in provincial budget revenue while enhancing local fiscal capacity [1][2][6]. Group 1: Fiscal Reform Details - The reform adopts a "do not touch the stock, only move the increment" approach, aiming to alleviate the financial pressure on local governments and enhance their fiscal independence [1][7]. - The provincial budget revenue for Guangdong was adjusted from 315.3 billion yuan to 239.18 billion yuan, a reduction of 76.12 billion yuan [1]. - The adjustment in revenue-sharing ratios is directly linked to the increase in local fiscal revenues, with cities like Guangzhou seeing a 12% increase in budget revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Local Governments - Municipalities such as Dongguan, Huizhou, and Zhuhai also reported significant increases in their budget revenues, with growth rates of 12.3%, 13.7%, and 9% respectively [3]. - The reform allows local governments to retain a larger share of incremental revenues from major taxes, including VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax, which were previously shared equally with the provincial government [3][6]. - The total reduction in provincial revenue includes approximately 45.71 billion yuan from VAT, 14.76 billion yuan from corporate income tax, and 6.11 billion yuan from personal income tax [3]. Group 3: Budget Balancing Measures - The report indicates that while the provincial budget revenue decreased by 10.74 billion yuan, this was offset by an increase of 75.046 billion yuan in revenue transferred from municipalities, maintaining overall budget balance [6]. - The reform is designed to ensure that local governments can better manage their finances and improve their ability to attract investment and assess local debt risks [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, and the year-on-year growth rates of PPI and M1 are rising due to low bases. The economic data in October is crucial. Exports maintained resilience in September, but the growth rate is expected to decline significantly in Q4. The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [1]. - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures. Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, and the market may be hit if the leaders do not meet in late October or early November [2]. - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. The housing market remains pessimistic. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Next Week's Key Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session and Sino-US Relations (1) Anti-involution Effect is Minimal, and the Domestic Economy Remains Sluggish - Exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, continuing to show resilience. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in Q4 due to the high base. High-frequency data shows that exports in October may be lower than in September [12]. - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, as shown by the PPI. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been rising for five months, mainly due to the low base. The economic data in October is crucial [14]. - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also affected by the low base. The domestic economy remains weak, as shown by the social financing and credit data. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [17]. (2) The 15th Five-Year Plan and Sino-US Relations - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures [21]. - Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, with the leaders expected to meet during the APEC Summit in late October or early November. The market may be hit if the leaders do not meet and the US imposes 100% tariffs. China will implement new rare earth export control measures on December 1 [21]. 2. Real Estate Market Tracking: New Home Sales are Far Below the Seasonal Level - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. First-tier cities are weak, second-tier cities are similar to last year, and third-tier cities are higher than in 2023 [3]. - The listing price index of second-hand homes has continued to decline, with the decline accelerating in second- and third-tier cities. The overall trend of the real estate market remains pessimistic [3]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Continue to Run Strongly - The bond market has been volatile this week, with the Sino-US confrontation increasing market risk aversion and benefiting the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the strengthening of fiscal capacity and effectiveness during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which is crucial for supporting national governance and meeting public expectations [1][2]. Fiscal Strength and Budget Overview - National general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. - General public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Economic Policy and Development - Fiscal policy has become more proactive and precise, enhancing macroeconomic regulation to support stable and healthy economic development [1][2]. - The government aims to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and coordinate long-term development momentum [1]. Social Welfare and Public Spending - Over 70% of general public budget expenditure is allocated to social welfare, with significant investments in education, social security, healthcare, and housing [2]. - Specific allocations include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for healthcare, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Education and Technology Investment - National fiscal education funding is expected to exceed 25 trillion yuan, a growth of about 38% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [3]. - Fiscal support for technology is projected to reach 5.5 trillion yuan, a 34% increase from the previous period, focusing on basic research and national strategic technology tasks [3]. Fiscal and Tax System Reform - The government is committed to deepening fiscal and tax system reforms to ensure effective budget management and a sound fiscal framework [4][5]. - Key reforms include optimizing revenue and expenditure structures, enhancing the efficiency of fund usage, and improving the tax system to promote social equity and market unity [5]. Future Directions - The government plans to continue advancing fiscal support for innovation and technology, aligning with the strategy for building a strong technological nation [3][6].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has developed an implementation plan and annual work schedule for fiscal and tax system reform, which is essential for advancing comprehensive reforms in other areas [1][2] - The reform focuses on three aspects: enhancing efficiency through budget system reform, promoting high-quality development, social equity, and market unity through tax system reform, and driving fiscal system reform with clear responsibilities and regional balance [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry emphasizes the importance of optimizing revenue, expenditure, and management, with a significant increase in the funds transferred to the general public budget, which is over ten times the amount during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The central government has allocated nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, supporting local implementation of central policies [2] - The Ministry has implemented various tax reforms, including the introduction of a special deduction for childcare and significant increases in deductions for elderly and child care, benefiting over 67 million people [2]