这一改革采取"不动存量、只动增量"形式。 根据上述《报告》附件及广东省财政厅数据，上述广东省本级让利给市县所减少的761.2亿元收入中，增值税收入减少约457.1亿元，这占年初广东全省增值 税收入预算数比重约10.5%； 近些年受经济下行、物价楼市低迷等多重因素影响，基层财政收支矛盾加大，中央要求增加地方自主财力，广东推出重磅改革，市县"账面上"财力出现明显 增长。 近期，广东省财政厅公开披露的《广东省人民政府关于2025年省级财政第二次预算调整方案的报告》（下称《报告》）。此次《报告》将2025年初时，广东 省省本级一般公共预算收入预算数由3153亿元调降至2391.8亿元，省本级收入比年初预算数减少了761.2亿元。 为何上述广东省省本级财政收入出现大幅下降？这跟广东今年调整省本级与市县收入分享比例直接相关。 根据《报告》，根据广东省委、省政府关于深化省以下财政体制改革部署，省与市县增量共享收入分享比例调整，进一步加大财力下沉力度，增加地方自主 财力。按照调整后的财政体制，省级财政因共享收入分享比例降低，省级一般公共预算的本级收入减少。 简言之，就是广东省财政收入第一次分配时，省本级少拿一些，将这些收入留 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, and the year-on-year growth rates of PPI and M1 are rising due to low bases. The economic data in October is crucial. Exports maintained resilience in September, but the growth rate is expected to decline significantly in Q4. The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [1]. - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures. Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, and the market may be hit if the leaders do not meet in late October or early November [2]. - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. The housing market remains pessimistic. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Next Week's Key Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session and Sino-US Relations (1) Anti-involution Effect is Minimal, and the Domestic Economy Remains Sluggish - Exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, continuing to show resilience. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in Q4 due to the high base. High-frequency data shows that exports in October may be lower than in September [12]. - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, as shown by the PPI. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been rising for five months, mainly due to the low base. The economic data in October is crucial [14]. - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also affected by the low base. The domestic economy remains weak, as shown by the social financing and credit data. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [17]. (2) The 15th Five-Year Plan and Sino-US Relations - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures [21]. - Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, with the leaders expected to meet during the APEC Summit in late October or early November. The market may be hit if the leaders do not meet and the US imposes 100% tariffs. China will implement new rare earth export control measures on December 1 [21]. 2. Real Estate Market Tracking: New Home Sales are Far Below the Seasonal Level - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. First-tier cities are weak, second-tier cities are similar to last year, and third-tier cities are higher than in 2023 [3]. - The listing price index of second-hand homes has continued to decline, with the decline accelerating in second- and third-tier cities. The overall trend of the real estate market remains pessimistic [3]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Continue to Run Strongly - The bond market has been volatile this week, with the Sino-US confrontation increasing market risk aversion and benefiting the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the strengthening of fiscal capacity and effectiveness during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which is crucial for supporting national governance and meeting public expectations [1][2]. Fiscal Strength and Budget Overview - National general public budget revenue is expected to reach 106 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 trillion yuan or approximately 19% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. - General public budget expenditure is projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, an increase of 26 trillion yuan or 24% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Economic Policy and Development - Fiscal policy has become more proactive and precise, enhancing macroeconomic regulation to support stable and healthy economic development [1][2]. - The government aims to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and coordinate long-term development momentum [1]. Social Welfare and Public Spending - Over 70% of general public budget expenditure is allocated to social welfare, with significant investments in education, social security, healthcare, and housing [2]. - Specific allocations include 20.5 trillion yuan for education, 19.6 trillion yuan for social security and employment, 10.6 trillion yuan for healthcare, and 4 trillion yuan for housing security during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Education and Technology Investment - National fiscal education funding is expected to exceed 25 trillion yuan, a growth of about 38% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [3]. - Fiscal support for technology is projected to reach 5.5 trillion yuan, a 34% increase from the previous period, focusing on basic research and national strategic technology tasks [3]. Fiscal and Tax System Reform - The government is committed to deepening fiscal and tax system reforms to ensure effective budget management and a sound fiscal framework [4][5]. - Key reforms include optimizing revenue and expenditure structures, enhancing the efficiency of fund usage, and improving the tax system to promote social equity and market unity [5]. Future Directions - The government plans to continue advancing fiscal support for innovation and technology, aligning with the strategy for building a strong technological nation [3][6].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has developed an implementation plan and annual work schedule for fiscal and tax system reform, which is essential for advancing comprehensive reforms in other areas [1][2] - The reform focuses on three aspects: enhancing efficiency through budget system reform, promoting high-quality development, social equity, and market unity through tax system reform, and driving fiscal system reform with clear responsibilities and regional balance [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry emphasizes the importance of optimizing revenue, expenditure, and management, with a significant increase in the funds transferred to the general public budget, which is over ten times the amount during the 13th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The central government has allocated nearly 50 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, supporting local implementation of central policies [2] - The Ministry has implemented various tax reforms, including the introduction of a special deduction for childcare and significant increases in deductions for elderly and child care, benefiting over 67 million people [2]