关税紧张局势

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白银价格预测:由于关税紧张局势,白银在近13年高位盘整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 06:22
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are stabilizing around $36.70, remaining near a 13-year high amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Silver is trading within a range of $35.50 to $37.30, with the 20-day moving average at $36.42 acting as immediate support [3][5]. - The recent announcement by Trump imposing a 25% tariff on 14 countries, including major trading partners like Japan and South Korea, has heightened trade tensions [2][3]. - The extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 provides more negotiation time but keeps trade tensions elevated [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver prices have been consolidating for the past four weeks, reflecting a cautious stance among traders following a strong rebound in early June [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout, although a clear directional trigger is needed [5]. - Momentum indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, indicating moderate buying interest without signs of being overbought [5]. Group 3: Price Levels - A daily close above $37.30 would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for prices to reach $38.00 and $39.00 in the short term [6]. - The first support level is at approximately $36.42, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; a break below this level could expose the lower end at around $35.72 [6]. - If the support at $36.42 fails, the next downside target would be $34.50, indicating a deeper corrective move [6].
期铜收低 因需求不确定性和美元走强【4月25日LME收盘】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to a strong dollar and uncertainty in demand, with LME three-month copper prices falling to $9,374.00 per ton, a decrease of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper closed at $9,374.00, down $18.50 or 0.2%, while earlier in the week it reached a high of $9,481.50, the highest level since April 3 [1] - Other base metals also saw declines, with three-month aluminum down $21.00 (0.86%), zinc down $41.00 (1.53%), lead down $15.00 (0.77%), and tin down $276.00 (1.74%) [2][7] - In contrast, three-month tin increased by $217.00 (0.68%) [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah highlighted the uncertainty surrounding trade disputes and their potential impact on demand, contributing to the current market sluggishness [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 32% decrease in monitored copper inventories this week, raising concerns about potential short squeezes [3][5] - U.S. Comex copper futures fell by 0.2% to $4.85 per pound, with a premium of $1,289 per ton over LME prices, influenced by easing tariff tensions and a stronger dollar [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a first-quarter copper output of 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year-on-year, with a production target of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons for the year [6] - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine achieved a first-quarter production of 95,728 tons, marking one of its best quarterly performances, with expectations for an upward revision of its annual production guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 tons [6] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) projected a supply surplus in the global refined zinc and lead markets by 2025, with refined lead supply exceeding demand by 82,000 tons and refined zinc supply exceeding demand by 93,000 tons [7]