Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices continue to decline for the third consecutive week, driven by weak growth expectations and ongoing energy transitions in countries like the EU, which are suppressing the overall outlook for crude oil [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Analysts indicate that concerns over supply surplus, weak demand, and tariff tensions are collectively impacting crude oil prices, pushing them towards annual lows [1] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 1% in a single day, currently reported at $56.22 per barrel and $60.24 per barrel, respectively [1]

Group 1 - Concerns over technology stock bubbles and government budget inflation are rising on Wall Street after the holiday [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1.3%, exacerbating the sell-off triggered by technology stocks last week [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.99%, while the UK 30-year yield reached its highest level since 1998 [1] Group 2 - French long-term bond yields surged to their highest level since 2009, with potential political instability looming for the French government [3] - Mohamed El-Erian noted that rising long-term bond yields in developed countries, particularly in the UK, reflect a growing fiscal deficit [3] - The market is approaching a critical phase as expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in 2025 are set to be tested this month [3] Group 3 - The volatility index (VIX) rose by 15.5%, reaching its highest level since August 5, indicating increased investor anxiety [4] - Market caution is prevalent as key U.S. inflation and labor market data are approaching, suggesting a need for careful action in the future [4]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices are stabilizing around $36.70, remaining near a 13-year high amid ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Silver is trading within a range of $35.50 to $37.30, with the 20-day moving average at $36.42 acting as immediate support [3][5]. - The recent announcement by Trump imposing a 25% tariff on 14 countries, including major trading partners like Japan and South Korea, has heightened trade tensions [2][3]. - The extension of the deadline for reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1 provides more negotiation time but keeps trade tensions elevated [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver prices have been consolidating for the past four weeks, reflecting a cautious stance among traders following a strong rebound in early June [5]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and the potential for a breakout, although a clear directional trigger is needed [5]. - Momentum indicators suggest a cautious bullish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, indicating moderate buying interest without signs of being overbought [5]. Group 3: Price Levels - A daily close above $37.30 would confirm a bullish breakout, potentially paving the way for prices to reach $38.00 and $39.00 in the short term [6]. - The first support level is at approximately $36.42, which aligns with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands; a break below this level could expose the lower end at around $35.72 [6]. - If the support at $36.42 fails, the next downside target would be $34.50, indicating a deeper corrective move [6].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure due to a strong dollar and uncertainty in demand, with LME three-month copper prices falling to $9,374.00 per ton, a decrease of 0.2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper closed at $9,374.00, down $18.50 or 0.2%, while earlier in the week it reached a high of $9,481.50, the highest level since April 3 [1] - Other base metals also saw declines, with three-month aluminum down $21.00 (0.86%), zinc down $41.00 (1.53%), lead down $15.00 (0.77%), and tin down $276.00 (1.74%) [2][7] - In contrast, three-month tin increased by $217.00 (0.68%) [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah highlighted the uncertainty surrounding trade disputes and their potential impact on demand, contributing to the current market sluggishness [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 32% decrease in monitored copper inventories this week, raising concerns about potential short squeezes [3][5] - U.S. Comex copper futures fell by 0.2% to $4.85 per pound, with a premium of $1,289 per ton over LME prices, influenced by easing tariff tensions and a stronger dollar [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Updates - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, reported a first-quarter copper output of 296,000 tons, a 0.3% increase year-on-year, with a production target of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons for the year [6] - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine achieved a first-quarter production of 95,728 tons, marking one of its best quarterly performances, with expectations for an upward revision of its annual production guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 tons [6] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) projected a supply surplus in the global refined zinc and lead markets by 2025, with refined lead supply exceeding demand by 82,000 tons and refined zinc supply exceeding demand by 93,000 tons [7]