Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relevance of "Dollar-Cost Averaging" (DCA) in investment strategies, particularly in the context of the "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" which emphasizes asset, market, and timing diversification [6][30]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" includes asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks), and timing diversification (DCA) [6]. - The author has implemented a weekly DCA strategy and has made seven investments so far [7]. - The decision to set up DCA is more related to the investor's financial situation and risk tolerance rather than the characteristics of the investment itself [8]. Group 2: Perspectives on DCA - Different investors have varying opinions on whether high-volatility products are better suited for DCA or for swing trading [9][10]. - Some believe that stable products should be invested in through DCA, while others argue for lump-sum investments due to their long-term upward trends [11]. - The article emphasizes that the same investment can be approached differently based on individual investor perspectives [13]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The concept of "Dynamic Rebalancing" is introduced as a method to maintain the desired asset allocation over time, which is distinct from DCA [18]. - Dynamic rebalancing addresses the risk management aspect of the "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" by adjusting the asset mix back to the original allocation [19]. - The author posits that DCA primarily addresses psychological aspects of investing, helping investors manage their emotions during market fluctuations [20][29]. Group 4: Conclusion - There are no strict rules mandating the use of DCA; investors can choose to invest in a lump sum or in multiple smaller amounts [28]. - DCA and dynamic rebalancing can coexist, allowing for gradual investment followed by rebalancing after a set period [28]. - Ultimately, DCA is viewed as a tool for managing investor psychology rather than a method for maximizing returns [29].

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are questioning the dominance of the US dollar, but alternatives are limited, which may lead to significant market volatility and revaluation of nominal asset prices [1][2]. Group 1: Limited Alternatives to the Dollar - Goldman Sachs analysts highlight that despite rising demand for diversification away from dollar assets, credible alternative assets are scarce, with only Swiss francs, precious metals, and Bitcoin being viable options [2]. - The market capacity of these alternatives is significantly lower than that of the dollar, which could result in "non-linear" price volatility if large-scale investments flow into them [2]. - The case of the Swiss franc illustrates this issue, as its strength has prompted the Swiss National Bank to revert to a zero interest rate policy, indicating the limits of even high-quality alternative currencies [2]. Group 2: Impact of Currency Fluctuations on Asset Allocation - Large-scale diversification away from dollar assets could not only affect the foreign exchange market but also lead to a revaluation of global equity markets and other nominal assets [3]. - Despite a weak performance of the dollar in the first half of the year, demand for dollar assets remains strong, particularly in the tech and AI sectors, driven by institutional investments [3]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in the next six months and two more times in the first half of 2026, which may lead to further adjustments in the dollar's exchange rate [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term performance of investment funds, emphasizing the importance of patience and understanding investment strategies over mere results [2][6][8]. Group 1: Long-Term Performance Insights - Investors may need to endure a 10-year period of underperformance before a fund shows its long-term potential [6]. - Many investors lose patience after three consecutive years of underperformance, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of investment philosophy [6]. - Funds that underperform their benchmarks over a 15-year period often have extended periods of outperformance, suggesting that recent strong performance may not predict future success [6]. Group 2: Investment Cycles and Strategies - The article reflects on the cyclical nature of investment performance, noting that the first ten years of a fund's life can differ significantly from the subsequent ten years [8][9]. - It discusses the necessity of adapting investment strategies to changing market conditions, as past success does not guarantee future results [9]. - The concept of "paying for luck" in the next decade is introduced, indicating that past gains may lead to future challenges [9]. Group 3: Diversification and Risk Management - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach, including asset, market, and time diversification [12][13]. - It suggests that investors should consider a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities across various markets to mitigate risks [12][14]. - The importance of finding a personal investment style that is both effective and reasonable is emphasized, encouraging experimentation and learning from mistakes [15].

Group 1 - The core concept of the article emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, specifically the "Snowball Three-Point Method," which focuses on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification to achieve sustainable returns while managing risks [1][9] - The article highlights the pitfalls of chasing short-term gains through high-performing funds, illustrating that many investors who bought into popular funds in 2021 faced significant losses instead of the expected returns [1][2] - It discusses the low correlation between different asset classes, such as the negative correlation between bonds and stocks, which can help mitigate overall portfolio volatility during market downturns [2][3] Group 2 - The article presents a classic asset allocation strategy of 30% stocks, 55% bonds, 7.5% gold, and 7.5% commodities, which achieved a cumulative return of 100.26% with an annualized volatility of only 5.73% from 2014 to 2023 [7][8] - It emphasizes the significance of global diversification, noting that different economies have varying asset performance, which can provide opportunities for risk reduction through geographic diversification [3][4] - The article advocates for a disciplined investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, to smooth out costs and enhance investor confidence during market fluctuations [5][6] Group 3 - The importance of regular rebalancing of the investment portfolio is highlighted, as it can improve annualized returns and reduce volatility by maintaining the target risk-return profile [8] - The article underscores that the ultimate goal of investing is to enhance asset value to support life goals, encouraging investors to shift focus from short-term speculation to a systematic investment framework [8][9] - It concludes that the Snowball Three-Point Method offers a replicable and executable investment framework, allowing investors to establish their own investment order in complex market environments [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation strategies, particularly the "Three-Factor Method," which focuses on asset, market, and time diversification to achieve stable long-term investment returns [2][18]. Group 1: Three-Factor Method - The Three-Factor Method is a multi-dimensional asset allocation strategy based on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [3][18]. - Asset diversification involves allocating low-correlation assets to alter the overall risk-return profile of the investment portfolio, aiming to reduce volatility while maintaining similar returns [3]. - Market diversification highlights the significance of investing across different economic regions, as assets from various economies often exhibit low or negative correlation [3]. - Time diversification suggests that avoiding market timing and instead employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging can enhance investment stability [5]. Group 2: Asset Allocation and Selection - The article outlines four asset allocation strategies based on individual risk profiles, with higher allocations to high-volatility assets generally leading to greater returns and drawdowns [6][8]. - For equity assets, recommended indices include the CSI Dividend and CSI A50, which cover high-quality dividend stocks and leading companies in major industries [10]. - For bond assets, low-fee ETFs such as the Huaxia Asia Bond Index Fund and E Fund China Bond Index Fund are suggested for their comprehensive coverage of various bond types [11]. - Commodity investments are primarily focused on gold and oil, with recommendations to select funds based on tracking accuracy [12]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing and Quality Tracking - Dynamic rebalancing is crucial for adjusting asset proportions based on performance, aiming for lower drawdowns and more stable returns [13]. - Quality tracking of investment products is essential, with investors advised to monitor tracking errors in fund reports and replace underperforming funds as necessary [14]. Group 4: Conclusion - The Snowball Three-Factor Method aims to create a diverse and low-correlation asset portfolio, supplemented by dynamic rebalancing to reduce volatility and achieve sustainable long-term returns [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconception that long-term holding of investments guarantees returns, highlighting that many investors face losses despite prolonged holding periods due to various risks associated with individual stocks and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Individual Stocks and Long-Term Holding - The case of LeTV exemplifies the risks of long-term holding, where the company's market value plummeted from over 170 billion yuan in 2015 to delisting in 2020, resulting in significant losses for investors who believed in the company's potential [1]. - Individual stock investments carry substantial risks, including operational failures, industry cycle changes, and governance issues, which can lead to long-term holders ending up with nothing [1]. Group 2: Active Management Funds - Active management funds are not immune to poor performance; competitive market conditions and strategy failures can lead to long-term underperformance or even fund liquidation [2]. - Historical trends show that many funds that perform well during bull markets may struggle in subsequent periods, leading to prolonged losses for investors [2]. Group 3: Index Funds and Systemic Risks - Even index funds, which are generally considered safer due to diversification, can experience significant declines, as evidenced by the drop of the ChiNext Index from approximately 3100 points in early 2022 to 1800 points by the end of 2023, a decline of over 40% [2]. - Historical examples, such as the Dow Jones recovering only after 25 years post-1929 Great Depression and the Nikkei 225 not returning to its 1989 peak, illustrate that systemic market risks can lead to long-term stagnation [2]. Group 4: Limitations of Long-Term Holding - The inherent complexity and uncertainty of markets make long-term holding of single assets risky, as systemic risks from macroeconomic cycles, regulatory changes, and structural shifts can pressure asset prices [3]. - The concept of "long-term" is subjective, varying among investors, and emphasizing long-term holding without considering individual circumstances can be dangerous [3]. Group 5: Asset Allocation as a Solution - The article advocates for asset allocation as a more scientific investment approach, promoting diversification to mitigate risks, akin to the adage of not putting all eggs in one basket [3]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" emphasizes diversification across three dimensions: asset types (stocks, bonds, commodities), markets (domestic and international), and time (long-term dollar-cost averaging) to create a balanced investment portfolio [4][5]. Group 6: Investment Philosophy - The Snowball Three-Part Method aims to provide a systematic asset allocation strategy that can withstand various market conditions, focusing on building a robust portfolio rather than chasing short-term gains [5][6]. - Successful investing is framed as a disciplined approach to managing uncertainty and volatility, with an emphasis on scientific allocation rather than mere passive holding [5].

Core Concept - The article discusses Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy," which aims to achieve stable returns in various market conditions, likening it to being well-equipped for unpredictable weather during a hike [1][3]. Group 1: All Weather Strategy Principles - The core idea of the All Weather Strategy is to maintain a balanced asset allocation to perform well in different economic scenarios, influenced by the interplay of economic growth, recession, inflation, and deflation [4][5]. - Dalio's strategy does not focus on predicting economic cycles but rather on diversifying asset allocation to mitigate market volatility and ensure consistent performance across different environments [5]. Group 2: Classic Asset Allocation - The classic All Weather portfolio consists of 30% stocks, which are seen as a long-term growth engine but are subject to significant short-term volatility [8]. - In different economic scenarios, the performance of various assets is as follows: - Economic growth + rising inflation: Stocks and commodities perform best - Economic growth + falling inflation: Both stocks and bonds perform well - Economic recession + rising inflation (stagflation): Gold and commodities excel - Economic recession + falling inflation: Bonds perform exceptionally well, with gold also benefiting [9][10]. Group 3: Simplified Strategy for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors may find it challenging to replicate Dalio's strategy due to high asset thresholds, complex configurations, and global diversification difficulties [11]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is proposed as a simplified version, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification to optimize returns and reduce risks [11][15]. - The recommended allocation for the Snowball Three-Part Method includes 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% cash or money market funds, allowing for a balanced approach to investment [13][14].