Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant factors driving the long-term bullish trend in the gold market over the past decade, highlighting geopolitical risks, changes in dollar credibility, collective central bank purchases, and shifts in asset allocation logic as the main drivers of gold's price surge. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged due to increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, with events like Brexit, trade wars, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict contributing to gold price spikes [10][12][13] - The global macroeconomic risks and rising inflation expectations have acted as accelerators for gold prices, with significant price movements observed during key geopolitical events [13] Group 2: Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the US dollar has positively impacted gold prices, as a decline in dollar credibility makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [14] - The total US national debt has ballooned from $18 trillion in 2015 to over $38 trillion, undermining confidence in the dollar and contributing to gold's price increase [14][15] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with gold accounting for 20% of global central bank reserve assets by 2024, surpassing US Treasury bonds for the first time in 30 years by 2025 [16][17] - The annual gold purchases by central banks have exceeded 1,000 tons since 2022, indicating a strong and accelerating demand for gold as a reserve asset [17][18] Group 4: Changing Asset Allocation Logic - There has been a fundamental shift in global asset allocation, with gold emerging as a strategic investment asset rather than merely a decorative item, particularly in the Chinese market [19][20] - The younger demographic is increasingly investing in gold, with a notable rise in gold jewelry ownership among consumers aged 18 to 24, reflecting a shift towards more frequent and smaller-scale investments [20]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility recently, with sharp declines in prices, yet it still holds medium to long-term investment value due to global risk aversion and changing asset allocation logic [1][4]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Risk Warnings - Since 2026, the precious metals market has shown strong performance but has recently faced increased volatility, exemplified by a "roller coaster" market on January 30, where COMEX gold fell by 8.35% and COMEX silver dropped by 25.50% [1]. - Several banks have issued risk warnings regarding precious metals, highlighting increased market uncertainty and advising clients to "reasonably control positions and prevent risks" [1][2]. - China Bank specifically warned clients engaged in gold accumulation and account precious metals to consider their financial status and risk tolerance when trading [1]. Group 2: Adjustments in Banking Operations - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced changes to its gold accumulation business and floating price physical gold product sales, limiting electronic trading hours and implementing daily limits on accumulation or redemption during non-trading days [2]. - Construction Bank raised the minimum amount for personal gold accumulation business to 1500 yuan starting February 2 [2]. - The "ICBC Gold Family" public account urged investors to maintain rationality and enhance risk awareness amid the volatile market [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts suggest that despite short-term volatility, precious metals like gold still have upward potential in the medium to long term, supported by ongoing demand for safe-haven assets and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the restructuring of the global monetary credit system and rising geopolitical risks, is expected to drive precious metals prices higher in the future [4]. - Silver, while experiencing high volatility, is also projected to have medium-term support, although caution is advised due to its higher risk profile [5].

美元指数一度跌破97，助推贵金属价格。 | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | 97.1127 | | 前收 | 97.5053 开盘 | | 97.1569 | | -0.3926 | -0.40% | 委员 | 97.1127 买入 | | 97.1127 | | 最高 | 97.2693 | 今年来 | -1.18% | 20日 | -0.90% | | 最低 | 96.9355 | 10日 | -1.80% | 60日 | -2.77% | | 分时 | | 日K | 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 更多 ◎ | | | | | 叠加 设均线 MA5:98.0413↓ 10:98.6220↓ 20:98.5991↓ 60:91 切走势线 | | | | 101.5669 | | | | | | | -100.3950 | | | | | | | 99.0899 | | | | | | | ... << | | | | | 96.9355 | | 96.6130 | 1 1 1 1 1 ...

此外，当地时间12日，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士也发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对鲍威 尔发起刑事调查。签署这一声明的包括多名美联储前主席、美国财政部前部长和白宫经济顾问委员会前 主席。 声明说，美联储的独立性对美国经济表现至关重要，而对鲍威尔的刑事调查企图利用检方调查削弱美联 储的独立性。声明强调，法治是美国经济成功的根基，并警告说，这种前所未有的做法可能给通胀形势 和整体经济运行带来极为不利的影响。 孙伏鲲表示，鲍威尔遭刑事调查，是一场针对美联储独立性的"压力测试"，其根源在于特朗普对现行高 利率政策的不满。尽管此举未能改变美元走弱的大趋势，但确实导致了部分大类资产定价出现偏移。当 美元作为全球资产定价"基石"的地位受到质疑时，黄金等传统避险资产自然会成为资金的避风港。全球 央行持续增持黄金储备的行为反映了长期投资者的资产配置已经出现结构性转变。 美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查一事继续发酵！ 环球时报援引美国《华尔街日报》13日报道，9位央行行长"史无前例地"发表联合声明，强调维护美联 储的独立性"至关重要"。 华源期货孙伏鲲和实盘大赛金牌导师王志新在期货日报的直播节目中对事件的深层影响进行了全面解 读 ...