OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）近日表示，AI将在2030年前超越人类智能。他认为， 未来几年AI将取得巨大进步，甚至可能实现人类无法独立完成的科学发现。他还提到，OpenAI计划开 发一系列设备，重新定义计算机的使用方式。 德国《世界报》（WELT）上周在柏林采访了奥尔特曼，以下是详细的问答内容（有删减）。 提问：山姆， AI 永远无法取代你身上的哪种特质？ 山姆·奥尔特曼：我想我们会找到答案。但有一件事是独特的，那就是人们关心他人及其所做的事情， 关心与他人互动的需求。 我认为这些特质在AI的世界里将变得越来越重要。我们将拥有一个令人难以置信的工具，但我们仍然 需要弄清楚该做什么、他人需要什么以及他人会觉得什么有用。 提问： AI 正在迅速发展。你认为超智能何时会出现，能够在各方面超越人类？ 奥尔特曼：在很多方面，GPT-5已经比我更聪明了，至少，我觉得很多其他人也是如此。 GPT-5能够做许多令人印象深刻的事情，但它也无法做到许多人类可以轻松完成的任务。 这种情况会持续一段时间，因为人类将使用这些工具并发挥其人类的洞察力、创造力和智慧。我预计， AI能力进展的轨迹将保持极其陡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the economy and society, with 2024 marking the year of AI application and 2025 the year of intelligent agents. This shift will lead to a new economic paradigm where humans may become a minority in terms of intelligence compared to machines [1][4]. Group 1: AI and Economic Impact - AI is expected to contribute approximately 0.6% to 1% annual growth to GDP over the next decade, with some experts predicting even higher impacts due to unmeasured efficiencies [4][5]. - The productivity growth rate in the U.S. could rise to an average of 3% annually, driven by reduced reliance on human labor and advancements in AI technologies [5][6]. - The introduction of reasoning models like Deepseek and ChatGPT-5 is expected to enhance AI's capabilities, allowing for autonomous task completion without human intervention [5][6]. Group 2: Global AI Competition Factors - Key factors determining success in the global AI competition include talent, energy, technology, and legislation [8][9]. - China leads in talent availability, with a significant number of AI developers and scientists, many of whom are of Chinese descent [8]. - China also has a competitive edge in energy resources, which are crucial for AI development, while the U.S. faces challenges in this area [8][9]. Group 3: Future Economic Landscape - By 2050, the number of intelligent robots is projected to reach 4 billion, fundamentally altering the economic landscape and human roles within it [4]. - The competition among machines is expected to suppress inflation, leading to increased investment in non-scalable assets like luxury goods and collectibles [6]. - The current economic environment shows signs of a potential bubble, particularly in tech valuations, reminiscent of the internet bubble era [6]. Group 4: China's Economic Outlook - China's economic prospects are viewed positively, with expectations of a recovery from the real estate cycle and a shift towards urbanization driving growth [12][15]. - The valuation of Chinese tech companies is often lower than their Western counterparts, presenting attractive investment opportunities [15][16]. - The government is focused on stabilizing the economy, which is expected to create a favorable market environment for growth [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to lead to a transformative economic landscape, with significant implications for labor productivity and global economic dynamics [1][4][12]. Group 1: AI Development and Economic Impact - 2024 is anticipated to be the year of AI application, while 2025 will mark the era of intelligent agents, indicating a shift from AI as an auxiliary tool to a more autonomous role [1]. - AI is projected to contribute approximately 0.6% to 1% growth to GDP annually over the next decade, with some experts predicting even higher impacts due to unmeasured efficiencies [4][13]. - The introduction of reasoning models like Deepseek and ChatGPT-5 is expected to enhance productivity, potentially increasing the annual productivity growth rate in the U.S. to around 3% [4][5]. Group 2: Global AI Competition Factors - Key factors influencing global AI competition include talent, energy, technology, and legislation [7][8]. - China is positioned favorably in terms of talent and energy resources, with a significant number of AI developers being of Chinese descent [8][9]. - The U.S. maintains a technological edge in chip and hardware production, but China is expected to catch up over time [9]. Group 3: Future Economic Landscape - The proliferation of intelligent robots could lead to a scenario where machines surpass human intelligence, fundamentally altering the economic structure [3][6]. - The competitive landscape will likely drive down prices for mass-produced goods, prompting central banks to adjust monetary policies to counteract deflationary pressures [6]. - The investment market is seen as promising, with potential bubbles forming in certain sectors, particularly in companies like Palantir and Tesla [6][14]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Outlook - The current economic environment is compared to the early internet era, suggesting a period of rapid growth and innovation [16]. - China’s economic outlook is positive, with expectations of a recovery from real estate challenges and a shift towards a more robust economy [14][15]. - The anticipated increase in labor productivity could create an attractive investment environment, with significant value capture in specific sectors driven by AI advancements [12][13].

Core Insights - The article discusses a conversation between Howard Marks, founder of Oak Tree Capital, and Morgan Housel, author of "The Psychology of Money" and "Same As Ever," highlighting the importance of patience and leverage in investing [1] Group 1 - The dialogue emphasizes that while history may not repeat itself, human behavior tends to do so, suggesting that understanding behavioral patterns is crucial for investors [1] - Morgan Housel is portrayed as a significant contributor to the conversation, showcasing his independent thinking and ability to inspire others, including Howard Marks [1] Group 2 - The article also mentions other recommended readings, including insights from Peter Lynch on investing during high volatility and discussions on AI's potential impact on inventory cycles [1]