24/09以来的这轮行情始于宏观政策导向转向抗通缩，但中长期看促转型更为关键，预计科技仍是政策 支持的重心。 同时，科技产业正处在新一轮向上大周期中，产业技术变革下人工智能有望加速向各行业应用。技术周 期和政策加持下，科技仍是未来一年看好的主导产业。 国信证券首席经济学家荀玉根研报指出，26年牛市相比25年， 不变：政策继续宽松。 起于24年924的牛市类似99年519，通缩不止、政策宽松环境不变；牛市周期未完。借鉴历史上牛熊周期 规律，这轮牛市的时空未到，市场情绪还未极致。 变化：基本面修复将由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，牛市走向第二阶段后半场和第三阶段；科技行 情望从算力基建向应用扩散，白酒消费、地产等老登资产有重估机会。 具体到科技内部，借鉴上两轮牛市经验，牛市后程的领涨板块往往是当时主导产业的应用领域，例如15 年上半年互联网+，21年的新能源车。 本轮科技行情同样有望由硬件端向应用扩散，随着人工智能技术在成本和性能不断取得突破，其在商业 化应用的步伐有望加快。 ...

核心结论：26年牛市相比25年：①不变1：政策继续宽松。起于24年924的牛市类似99年519，通缩不止、政策宽松环境不变。②不变2：牛市周期未完。借 鉴历史上牛熊周期规律，这轮牛市的时空未到，市场情绪还未极致。③变化1：基本面修复将由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，牛市走向第二阶段后半 场和第三阶段。④变化2：科技行情望从算力基建向应用扩散，白酒消费、地产等老登资产有重估机会。 26年牛市的变与不变 24年924以来，A股牛市已徐徐展开，至今上证指数最大涨46%、沪深300涨48%、创业板指涨117%。尽管宏观基本面尚未实质性改善，但伴随流动性改善 带动风险偏好回升，市场赚钱效应明显回升，投资者的信心正在修复。 正值辞旧迎新之际，投资者对26年A股行情既抱期待、又存疑问，26年A股相较25年有哪些变与不变?牛市行情的节奏和结构与25年有何异同?本文对此进 行分析。 1.不变：政策环境宽松 24/9/24类似99/5/19，政策转向是牛市开启的原始动力。24年9月下旬A股市场突然放量上涨，当时我们对行情的性质做了分析，即三年半的熊市周期结 束，新一轮牛市周期开始，背后逻辑和节奏可以参考99年519行情。 从政策 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, with a focus on positioning at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to stabilize pig prices, which are expected to face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply [3][15] - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with a focus on the white feather chicken breeding segment and potential price recovery in the future [4][28] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the clinical trial progress of African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions for leading companies in the sector [5][38] - The pet industry continues to experience rapid growth, with domestic brands gaining strength and improving profitability [8][60] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.53 CNY/kg, with a slight weekly increase. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month [14][15] - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][15] Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken breeding segment has seen a total of 107.21 thousand sets updated from January to October 2025, with a balanced import and self-breeding ratio [4][28] - Recommended companies in this sector include San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [4][28] Animal Health - The animal health industry has faced losses for over three months, with expectations of continued low pig prices. The clinical trials for the African swine fever vaccine are a critical step towards commercialization [5][38] - Companies to watch include BioStock, Kexin Biological, and Ruipu Biological [5][38] Planting Industry - Grain prices are fluctuating, with corn prices at 2244 CNY/ton and wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton. The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.03 [44][48] - Investment suggestions focus on companies with strong positions in genetically modified seeds, such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [6][48] Feed Industry - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with pig feed priced at 3.33 CNY/kg and chicken feed at 3.45 CNY/kg. The industry is expected to see increased concentration [49][50] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [49][50] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The number of pet dogs and cats is also on the rise [59][60] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [59][60]

南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——关注冬储需求释放 张泫 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723 联系邮箱：zhangxuan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【核心逻辑】本周汾渭及钢联口径焦煤产量劈叉，钢联口径矿山增产累库，汾渭口径减产累库，下游焦企受 提降预期影响补库积极性偏差，仅维持刚需采购，焦煤库存结构持续恶化。进口端，本周蒙煤日平均通关车 数超1500车/天，澳煤价格指数稳中有涨，内外价差倒挂严重，海煤进口窗口收窄，后续焦煤到港可能有所回 落。下游方面，焦炭三轮提降正式开启，目前即期焦化利润处于盈亏平衡点附近，预计三轮提降落地后部分 焦企将面临小幅亏损。本周焦企开工率受环保限产影响小幅下降，但高炉铁水加速减产，用焦需求同步萎 缩，焦炭基本面边际恶化，目前不排除钢厂继续四轮提降的可能。展望后市，随着终端冬储补库临近，焦煤 库存结构有望改善，当前焦煤过剩幅度相比往年并不严重，此轮库存转移对于缓和上游矿山库存压力、支撑 现货价格企稳有一定帮助，受偏高基差牵制，焦煤盘面下方空间可能较为有限。焦炭方面，三轮提降落地 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国海证券表示，生猪行业进入调控期以来，相关部门召开会议强化调控措施，通过减少产能手段调控猪 价。短期看，由于下半年生猪出栏量或有增加以及大猪库存或有消化，猪价依然面临下行压力，调控猪 价是抗通缩的最有效方式之一，相关单位进行政策调控，最终是希望猪价恢复合理区间。因此，这一轮 调控不太可能会很激烈，更可能是调控—加码—修正，政策具有持续性。由于生猪行业产能调控，更多 机会来自于低成本带来的业绩兑现以及分红提升带来的价值重估 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。中证畜牧 指数覆盖了畜禽养殖、饲料及动保等多个细分领域，具有较强的行业代表性。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the terminal steel mills are under profit pressure, and the molten iron production continues to decrease, resulting in a slight oversupply of coking coal. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and there may be a pressure of inventory accumulation. The coking coal 01 contract has a clear short - term bearish trend, while the far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation value. The current valuation of the coke main contract is reasonable, and it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [4]. - There is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and the price decline will stimulate restocking demand. The macro - policy expectations of the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will provide bottom support for the far - month contracts. However, the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing, and coke enterprises are cautious in purchasing, leading to marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventories. The 01 contract is suppressed by warehouse receipts, and a short - term bearish trend has formed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Price Range and Volatility**: The price range forecast for coking coal (01) in the month is 1000 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.37% and a historical percentile of 41.27%. The price range forecast for coke (01) in the month is 1500 - 1750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 23.45% and a historical percentile of 40.92% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Procurement for Coking Plants**: With the rapid decline of the coking coal main contract on the futures market and the relatively slow adjustment of spot prices in Shanxi, the basis is still high. Terminal users with coking coal procurement plans can wait for the spot price to decline before purchasing [3]. - **Management for Steel Mills**: As the first round of spot price cuts for coke is imminent and the futures market has already priced in 5 rounds of cuts, the space for further price cuts is limited. Steel mills should control coke arrivals and sell coke put options [3][4]. - **Sales Management for Coking Plants**: After the fourth round of spot price increases for coke is implemented, the futures price follows the decline of coking coal, the basis of coke strengthens, and the valuation is moderately high. Coking plants holding coke spot are advised to speed up sales [3]. 3.2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The warehouse receipt data of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese on different dates are provided, showing their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [4]. - **Core Logic and Strategy Suggestions**: - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand decreases, resulting in a slight oversupply. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure. The spot price of coke may face more than 2 rounds of price cuts [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold short positions in the coking coal 01 contract, and wait for a clear stabilization signal to layout long positions in the 05 contract. It is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market of coke [4]. 3.3. Coal - Coking Futures and Spot Price Data - **Futures Price Spread**: The price spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke on different dates are provided, including 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 [6]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, as well as import and export profits, coking profits, and price ratios are provided [7]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Coal - Coking Prices - **Positive Factors**: There is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and the macro - policy expectations of the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will provide bottom support for the far - month contracts [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The expectation of coke price cuts is increasing, and coke enterprises are cautious in purchasing, leading to marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventories. The 01 contract is suppressed by warehouse receipts, and a short - term bearish trend has formed [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the agricultural sector is experiencing a recovery, with specific segments such as the pig and beef industries showing signs of improvement. Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are key drivers for performance improvement in the pig sector, while the beef sector is witnessing a rebound from a cyclical low [6][7][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The pig sector has shown significant improvement in performance, with 15 listed pig companies achieving a revenue of 196.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 16.33 billion yuan, up 625% year-on-year [9]. - The average pig price has been under pressure, dropping to a low of 13.96 yuan/kg in June 2025. However, leading companies like Muyuan and Wens continue to maintain high profitability per head due to their efficiency advantages [15][42]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-cost, high-certainty leaders such as Muyuan and Wens, as well as high-growth small pig companies like Shennong Group and Juxing Agriculture [7][43]. 2. Beef Industry - The beef sector is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with live cattle prices increasing significantly since mid-February 2025. As of September 8, 2025, the prices for fattened bulls, calves, and cull cows have risen by 2.39, 8.33, and 3.18 yuan/kg respectively [47]. - The report notes that the overall beef market is supported by a trend towards protein upgrading, which is expected to continue despite economic fluctuations [57]. 3. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is stabilizing, with a focus on the development of pet business. The rapid release of pet vaccines is anticipated to enhance valuations across companies [7]. 4. Seed Industry - The seed market is shifting from quantity to quality competition, with a focus on superior varieties as the core competitiveness of seed companies. The report emphasizes the importance of resource integration and mergers in the seed industry [7]. Companies with strong variety reserves, such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech, are expected to benefit [7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is expected to challenge new lows, with a target set for the low point of September 30, 2024 [1][5] - A-shares are showing a strong upward trend, particularly in the North Star 50 index, which is anticipated to lead the market [2][5] - The commodity market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on long positions [3][5] Group 2: Sector Performance - The chemical, agriculture, steel, and photovoltaic sectors are at historical lows, providing a higher margin of safety for investors [2] - Semiconductor and optical module sectors have reached their adjustment space, and holding positions is recommended for potential gains [2] - The innovative drug sector has shown resilience after a recent drop, indicating a buying opportunity for high-growth stocks [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of slowing, with August non-farm payroll data indicating a softening, which supports a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] - The U.S. economy remains robust, with second-quarter GDP growth revised upward and corporate profits continuing an upward trend since 2021 [2] - China's social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, indicating strong liquidity in the market [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, pay attention to PXN profit hedging and locking, and future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [3] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, the industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the 01 contract long PX short PTA [4] - MEG: Short at high prices, with limited upside space for the unilateral price [5][6] - Polyester: The possibility of further large - scale production cuts is decreasing, and the overall load is expected to recover in August [4][174] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX forward curve shifts up as a whole, and profits are repaired. PXN rises, and gasoline cracking spreads decline, with Asian aromatics blending demand weakening [16][28][34] - Aromatic valuations rise as a whole, toluene disproportionation profits are acceptable, and the PX - MX spread remains high [45] Supply and Demand - In June, PX domestic production increased to 3.19 million tons, and this week's operating rate was 79.9% (-1.2%). Future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [57][65][66] - In June, the import volume was 770,000 tons. South Korea's PX exports to China in May were 30,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons, and China's imports from Saudi Arabia continued to be low [68][70] Inventory - In June, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 4.35 million tons (-160,000 tons) [87] PTA Valuation and Profit - Spot supply increases, mainly conduct basis reverse hedging and monthly spread positive hedging operations. PTA processing fees are at a relatively low level, and pay attention to the compression position of PTA processing fees under high valuations [98][107] Supply and Demand - This week's PTA operating rate remained at 79.7%. In August, pay attention to the maintenance and restart of multiple devices, and the new 3 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang Hailun Petrochemical is expected to start [111][118] - In June, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in July - August. Port inventory continues to rise, and the cumulative amplitude of total inventory is lower than expected [119][134] MEG Valuation and Profit - Unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, and monthly spreads decline, with limited downward space. MEG's relative valuations to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest level this year, and profits in each link have been significantly repaired [148][153][155] Supply and Demand - Import volume: 620,000 tons in June, expected 630,000 tons in July, expected below 600,000 tons in August, and expected to recover in September. Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plant operating rate increased to 74%; the total domestic ethylene glycol load was 66% (-1.37%) [5] - The reduction of filament factories has limited impact on the overall polyester operating rate. The current visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has continued to rise month - on - month [6][167] Polyester Supply and Demand - This week's polyester operating rate was 88.7% (+0.2%), and large - scale production cuts are expected to come to an end. The overall load is expected to recover in August [171][174]