Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, pay attention to PXN profit hedging and locking, and future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [3] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, the industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the 01 contract long PX short PTA [4] - MEG: Short at high prices, with limited upside space for the unilateral price [5][6] - Polyester: The possibility of further large - scale production cuts is decreasing, and the overall load is expected to recover in August [4][174] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX forward curve shifts up as a whole, and profits are repaired. PXN rises, and gasoline cracking spreads decline, with Asian aromatics blending demand weakening [16][28][34] - Aromatic valuations rise as a whole, toluene disproportionation profits are acceptable, and the PX - MX spread remains high [45] Supply and Demand - In June, PX domestic production increased to 3.19 million tons, and this week's operating rate was 79.9% (-1.2%). Future Asian PX supply will gradually recover [57][65][66] - In June, the import volume was 770,000 tons. South Korea's PX exports to China in May were 30,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons, and China's imports from Saudi Arabia continued to be low [68][70] Inventory - In June, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 4.35 million tons (-160,000 tons) [87] PTA Valuation and Profit - Spot supply increases, mainly conduct basis reverse hedging and monthly spread positive hedging operations. PTA processing fees are at a relatively low level, and pay attention to the compression position of PTA processing fees under high valuations [98][107] Supply and Demand - This week's PTA operating rate remained at 79.7%. In August, pay attention to the maintenance and restart of multiple devices, and the new 3 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang Hailun Petrochemical is expected to start [111][118] - In June, the export volume was 260,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in July - August. Port inventory continues to rise, and the cumulative amplitude of total inventory is lower than expected [119][134] MEG Valuation and Profit - Unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, and monthly spreads decline, with limited downward space. MEG's relative valuations to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics have all rebounded to the highest level this year, and profits in each link have been significantly repaired [148][153][155] Supply and Demand - Import volume: 620,000 tons in June, expected 630,000 tons in July, expected below 600,000 tons in August, and expected to recover in September. Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol plant operating rate increased to 74%; the total domestic ethylene glycol load was 66% (-1.37%) [5] - The reduction of filament factories has limited impact on the overall polyester operating rate. The current visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has continued to rise month - on - month [6][167] Polyester Supply and Demand - This week's polyester operating rate was 88.7% (+0.2%), and large - scale production cuts are expected to come to an end. The overall load is expected to recover in August [171][174]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Overall, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. Other metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and market sentiment, showing different trends and investment suggestions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell 1.3% to $3386.7 per ounce after three - day gains, London silver fell 0.12% to $39.216 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.78% to 785.26 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.36% to 9431 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.214, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.39%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.21% to 7.1547 [3]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in trade negotiations between the US and other major economies, and the Federal Reserve's situation has eased market risk - aversion. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2% [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [5][6][7]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79680 yuan per ton, down 0.16%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1404 lots to 513,000 lots. The overnight LME copper closed at $9933.5 per ton, up 0.36%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 125,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 418 tons to 244,000 tons [9][10]. - **Important Information**: The output of Vale and MMG's copper mines increased. Kazakhstan plans to double copper production by 2030, and a Canadian mining company hopes its project will be put into production in 2030. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, with a 50% tariff rate [13][14][15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - term market has increased expectations for a new round of supply - side reform and anti - deflation, and copper prices are running strongly. Supply is high, and it is in the consumption off - season, with limited upside potential [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [16]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3366 yuan per ton. The spot price in the north rose, and the national weighted index also increased [18]. - **Important Information**: Policies to eliminate backward production capacity are about to be released. There were spot transactions in Shandong and Vietnam. The alumina warehouse receipts on July 23 were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The production of some factories in Shanxi has changed [19][20][21]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but details are yet to be determined. The current warehouse receipts are at a low level. If the increase in warehouse receipts is limited, the alumina price will still be supported above the full cost of high - cost production capacity [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 70 yuan per ton to 20960 yuan per ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased. The price of thermal coal also rose [26]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets increased, and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The housing completion area decreased, and there were trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The output of some aluminum plants increased, and the export and import volume of aluminum products changed [27][30][31]. - **Logical Analysis**: The negotiation of tariffs has made progress, and the LME aluminum price has rebounded. Domestically, policies to eliminate backward production capacity are expected to boost aluminum prices. The aluminum rod production has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots may increase slightly. The aluminum consumption off - season may not be too serious [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20140 yuan per ton. The spot price in different regions remained unchanged [35]. - **Important Information**: The weighted average full cost of the casting aluminum alloy industry in June increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The weekly production of casting aluminum alloy increased [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling far - month futures [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate at a high level following the aluminum price for unilateral trading; consider arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [37][38]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The overnight LME zinc rose 0.23% to $2860 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.15% to 22940 yuan per ton. The spot trading in Shanghai was light, and the spot premium and discount were weak [41]. - **Important Information**: The zinc production of some companies changed. From January to May, the global zinc concentrate production increased, while the refined zinc production decreased, and there was a cumulative surplus [42][43]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short - term, but in the long - term, the supply of the mine end is sufficient, and the consumption is in the off - season, with the domestic social inventory likely to increase [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and profitable long positions can consider partial profit - taking; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [46][47]. Lead - **Market Review**: The overnight LME lead rose 0.69% to $2028.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16910 yuan per ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the trading was light [49]. - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is stable, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries changed [49][50]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the consumption of lead - acid batteries is not good but has peak - season expectations [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long positions can leave the market temporarily, and try to go long lightly at low prices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The overnight LME nickel rose to $15575 per ton, and the inventory decreased. The Shanghai nickel rose to 123660 yuan per ton. The premium of spot nickel changed [55]. - **Important Information**: There was a project adjustment plan for nickel powder production. The third - round Sino - US trade negotiations will be held, and relevant work has been carried out for the problems of key enterprises in the non - ferrous metal industry [56]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but nickel supply and demand are in surplus, and it is in the off - season. The short - term price follows the macro - sentiment [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the macro - atmosphere in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [58][59][60]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main stainless - steel SS2509 contract fell to 12900 yuan per ton, and the spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel was reported [62]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Shanxi Taigang decreased, and the high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia was traded [63]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but the actual demand is not good. The cost has changed, and the market pays attention to the overall atmosphere [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices will be strong in a volatile manner for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% after a sharp rise and fall, and the spot price rose [68][69]. - **Important Information**: A monomer enterprise in Shandong entered maintenance, and the supply decreased [70]. - **Logical Analysis**: The production of leading enterprises may decline in July, and there is a supply - demand gap before their resumption. The long - term trend depends on the resumption rhythm, and there is upward pressure in the short - term [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit long positions for unilateral trading; hold put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage [72]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 5.5% after a sharp callback, and the spot price increased [74]. - **Important Information**: The solar power generation capacity increased, but the new photovoltaic installation in June decreased [75]. - **Logical Analysis**: The increase in polysilicon prices can be transmitted to the downstream. The market has strong expectations for capacity integration, and the future trend depends on the number of warehouse receipts [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually exit long positions as the pressure on the market increases; buy protective put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts for arbitrage [77]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main lithium carbonate 2509 contract fell to 69380 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased [79]. - **Important Information**: The lithium concentrate export volume of Zimbabwe increased, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the trading fee [80]. - **Logical Analysis**: Observe whether the trend changes after the increase in fees and warehouse receipts. There are concerns about supply reduction, and pay attention to relevant factors in the future [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the short - term trend for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [80][81][82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy focus in the second half of this year is clear, aiming to repair the supply - demand mismatch pressure through "anti - involution" and "anti - deflation", improve the sluggish nominal growth rate, and address industrial homogenization competition and local protection issues for high - quality development. In the early stage of policy implementation, expectations outweigh reality, and the market may follow a similar logic to stock market valuation expansion. Later, expectations will give way to reality, and price performance will fluctuate according to actual situations [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 1 [11][17][21] - **Copper**: Market sentiment is positive, supporting copper prices. The trend intensity is 0 [11][22][24] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [11][25][27] - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are gradually emerging, and lead prices are strengthening. The trend intensity is 1 [11][28][29] - **Tin**: Tin prices are weakening. The trend intensity is - 1 [11][32][35] - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina has capital inflows, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [11][36][38] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment boosts nickel expectations, but reality limits its upward space. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and macro - factors. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [11][39][43] Energy - related - **Carbonate Lithium**: Attention should be paid to lithium mining industry policies, and carbonate lithium is expected to run strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [11][44][46] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is de - stocking in supply and demand, and the market is resistant to decline. Polysilicon has an upward - driving force due to sentiment fermentation. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0 and 1 respectively [11][47][50] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is in a strong - oscillating state. The trend intensity is 1 [11][51][52] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains high, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [11][56][59] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [11][60][62] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed a round of price increases and is oscillating strongly. Coking coal is also oscillating strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are 0 and 1 respectively [11][64][67] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and steam coal is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [11][69][72] Others - **Log**: Log is in a wide - range oscillation [11][73]

生猪：如何理解"不够还有"？20250701 摘要 5 月 29 日以来，生猪板块呈现"易涨难跌"态势，需警惕股价上行风险。 相关部门召集头部企业座谈，对产能和库存提出明确要求，执行效果符 合预期但存在折扣，6 月价格以上半月下跌、下半月回升创新高为分水 岭。 多方数据显示生猪体重降重趋势持续，但压栏现象依然存在。头部企业 在库存管理上较为积极，但母猪反应参差不齐；散户反应不一，存在正 向响应和反向博弈行为。 生猪行业政策效应总体处于中间状态，调控难度较大，因养殖户数量庞 大且分散，数据指标弹性空间大。但此次调控力度较大，由高层部门发 起，响应效果相对较好。 未来生猪市场发展趋势需关注政策执行力度及市场反馈，同时警惕股价 上行带来的潜在风险。市场行情的关键在于政策调控的持续性，相关部 门持续表达调控措施，以价格和产能为核心，考核结果和过程。 政策出发点主要是抗通缩加反内卷，其中抗通缩占比 80%。猪肉在 CPI 中权重较大，成为调控的重要抓手。若维持现状，七八月份猪肉 CPI 可 能面临负向贡献。 Q&A 当前生猪板块的市场表现如何？有哪些值得关注的风险？ 当前生猪板块的市场表现呈现出一定的不确定性，尤其是股 ...