华福证券 2026 年 01 月 04 日 固 定 收 益 跨年资金维持宽松 年后中枢或难显著提升 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260104 投资要点： 固 货币市场：本周 7DOMO 净投放 11710 亿。跨年因素扰动下，周初资 金价格分化，隔夜利率维持低位，周二 DR001 再创 2023 年 8 月以来的新 低，但跨年资金价格有所提升。随着央行持续大额净投放，年末财政或集 中支出，跨年当日资金整体维持宽松。 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量持续回落，日均成交量环比下降 2.44 万亿至 6.04 万亿；质押式回购整体规模同样持续回落，周三降至 12 万亿下方。本 周大行净融出持续大幅回落；上半周股份行净融出持续上升、城商行维持 震荡，二者均在跨年当日大幅下降；银行刚性净融出持续走低，周三降至 4.5 万亿附近。非银刚性融出持续上升超 7000 亿，尤其是其他产品与理财 大幅提升；非银刚性融入规模震荡回落，但整体降幅不大，其中基金、券 商融入降幅较大。资金缺口指数周一下行后有所回升，季调后指数周三升 至-6360，高于上周的-8857，但仍处于历年跨年的最低水平。本周银行间 市场和交 ...

【重磅新闻】 12月PMI数据将公布 12月31日，国家统计局将公布12月PMI数据。 11月份，制造业PMI为49.2%，比10月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。11月份，非制造业商务活 动指数为49.5%，比10月下降0.6个百分点。11月份，综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比10月下降0.3个百分 点。 下周存储龙头解禁市值超百亿元 Wind数据显示，下周由于元旦假期因素仅有3个交易日，限售股上市规模环比大幅下降，仅有36.83亿股 解禁，解禁市值约为580.97亿元。在下周涉及解禁的34家公司中，佰维存储、萤石网络等解禁市值超百 亿元。 | | | 下周解禁个股 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 个股代码 | 公司简称 | 解禁日期 | 解禁数量 | 解禁数量 | 解禁市值 | | | | | (亿股) | 占总股本比 세 | (亿元) | | 920415.BJ | 恒拓开源 | 12/29 | 0.018 | 1.25% | 0.257 | | 600845.SH | 宝信软件 | 12/29 | 0.003 | 0.01% | ...

Summary of Key Points - The central viewpoint of the article highlights the upcoming maturity of various monetary policy instruments in the Chinese central bank's open market operations, indicating significant liquidity events in the financial system [1] Group 1: Upcoming Maturities - A total of 20,770 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week, with specific amounts maturing each day from Monday to Friday [1] - The daily maturities include 2,665 billion yuan on Monday, 5,803 billion yuan on Tuesday, 6,160 billion yuan on Wednesday, 2,530 billion yuan on Thursday, and 3,612 billion yuan on Friday [1] - Additionally, 3,000 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature on Tuesday, along with 5,000 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos and 4,000 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos maturing on Friday [1]

Group 1: MSCI China Index Adjustment - MSCI announced a significant adjustment to its flagship index system, effective after the market close on August 26 [1] - The MSCI China Index will add 14 new stocks, including 9 Hong Kong companies and 5 A-share companies [1] - 17 stocks will be removed from the MSCI China Index, with 14 being A-shares [1] Group 2: Oil Price Adjustment - Domestic oil prices are expected to decrease by approximately 215 CNY per ton, translating to a reduction of about 0.17 CNY per liter [2] Group 3: Central Bank Reverse Repo Maturity - A total of 20,770 million CNY in reverse repos will mature next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [3] Group 4: Earnings Reports - Over 3,700 listed companies are set to disclose their mid-year reports next week, including major banks like China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4] Group 5: Lock-up Shares Unlocking - 37 companies will have lock-up shares unlocked next week, totaling 5.068 billion shares with a market value of approximately 924.08 million CNY [5] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are Xugong Machinery (319.08 million CNY), Dazhu CNC (316.47 million CNY), and Rongbai Technology (57.07 million CNY) [5] Group 6: New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks will be issued next week, with Sanxie Electric set to issue on August 26 and Huaxin Precision on August 25 [8]

Group 1 - Hong Kong Stock Exchange has announced new IPO pricing and allocation rules, reducing the minimum allocation ratio from 50% to 40%, effective from August 4, 2025 [1] - Under the new mechanism A, the maximum percentage for allocation to the public subscription part has been increased from 20% to 35, while mechanism B does not set a buyback, allowing public offering proportions between 10% and 60% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange continues to solicit market opinions on the public holding ratio for new shares, with a deadline at the end of October [1] Group 2 - On August 4, a total of 10 companies had lock-up shares released, with a total of 1.092 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 9.022 billion yuan [2] - Among the companies, Bubu Gao, Dayue City, and Feiwo Tai had the highest number of released shares, with 561 million, 283 million, and 209 million shares respectively [2] - In terms of market value, Feiwo Tai, Bubu Gao, and Xice Testing had the highest values released, at 3.639 billion, 2.757 billion, and 1.201 billion yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - Four companies disclosed stock repurchase progress on August 4, with two companies reporting ongoing repurchase implementation and two completing their repurchase plans [3] - Qizhong Technology and Hunan Silver had the highest repurchase amounts, at 100 million and 18.262 million yuan respectively [3] - Among completed repurchases, Zhonghang Heavy Machinery and Sany Heavy Industry had the highest amounts, at 200 million and 5.245 million yuan respectively [3] Group 4 - A total of 495.8 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos conducted by the central bank is set to mature today, with an operation rate of 1.40% [4]

Core Points - The central bank has a total of 16,632 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week [1] - The maturing reverse repos are scheduled as follows: 4,958 billion yuan on Monday, 4,492 billion yuan on Tuesday, 3,090 billion yuan on Wednesday, 2,832 billion yuan on Thursday, and 1,260 billion yuan on Friday [1]

Group 1 - Domestic oil prices are expected to increase for the sixth time this year, with the new pricing window opening on July 1 [1] - As of this year, there have been twelve pricing adjustments, resulting in five increases, five decreases, and two unchanged periods [1] - If the current adjustment is implemented, the pricing pattern will shift to six increases, five decreases, and two unchanged periods by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The National Healthcare Security Administration will hold a press conference to introduce measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [2] Group 3 - The "National Network Identity Authentication Public Service Management Measures" will be implemented starting July 15, 2025, allowing individuals to apply for online identity credentials [3] Group 4 - The "Regulations on the Registration Management of Individual Industrial and Commercial Households" will take effect on July 15, providing a framework for individual businesses to transition to corporate status [4] Group 5 - The "Tax Payment Credit Management Measures" will be implemented starting July 1, 2025, optimizing credit evaluation indicators for tax payments and allowing for credit repair under certain conditions [5] Group 6 - The mandatory national standard for "Hygienic Requirements for Disposable Sanitary Products" will be enforced starting July 1, establishing health risk classifications and safety requirements for various sanitary products [6] Group 7 - A total of 406.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, with an operation rate of 1.40% [7] Group 8 - Economic data such as the Eurozone's June CPI and Indonesia's May trade balance will be released [8]