Core Insights - The central point of the article is the recent operations of the central bank in the open market, specifically focusing on reverse repos and the net liquidity injection into the market [1] Group 1: Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank conducted reverse repo operations amounting to 11,220 billion yuan, with 4,958 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - The net liquidity injection for the week was 6,262 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Upcoming Maturities - Next week, there will be 11,220 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities scheduled from Monday to Friday: 1,199 billion yuan, 4,038 billion yuan, 1,955 billion yuan, 1,900 billion yuan, and 2,128 billion yuan respectively [1] - Additionally, there will be 1,200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing next Thursday [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. After continuous corrections since July, the 1-year Treasury bond yield rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the policy emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank's recent open market operations have shifted to net liquidity withdrawal, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that investors have a strong risk appetite, so the upward momentum of Treasury bonds is insufficient. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On August 1st, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 126 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate through quantity tender. Both the bid volume and winning bid volume were 126 billion yuan, and the operating rate was 1.40%. There were 789.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the day [6]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central focus of the article is on the upcoming maturity of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos in the central bank's open market operations next week, indicating significant liquidity movements in the financial system [1]. Group 1 - A total of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week [1]. - The maturity schedule includes 242 billion yuan on Monday, 197.3 billion yuan on Tuesday, 156.3 billion yuan on Wednesday, 203.5 billion yuan on Thursday, and 161.2 billion yuan on Friday [1]. - Additionally, there will be 100 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on Monday [1].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China issued the fourth phase of central bank bills for 2025 through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's debt instrument central settlement system [1] - The issuance amount was 30 billion yuan with a maturity period of 6 months [1] - The winning bid rate for the bills was set at 1.45% [1]

Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 closed at 1.63 with a 21.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.64 with an 11.29bp increase, GC001 at 1.51 with a 13.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 2.00bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a 0.90bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.45, 1.55, and 1.68 respectively, with increases of 1.94bp, 1.14bp, and 0.71bp; 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.43 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 125 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 4.3 billion, 18 billion, 9.2 billion, 6.45 billion, and 10.65 billion yuan maturing from Monday to next Friday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Quotes - The CSI 300 closed at 3889 with a 0.46% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2717 with a 0.86% decrease, the CSI 500 at 5716 with a 0.01% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 6068 with a 0.18% increase [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts also showed corresponding price changes and volume and position changes [6] - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.12% to 3889.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 2716.7, the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 5715.8, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.23% to 6068.1 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, non - bank finance (2.5%), automobile (2.4%), transportation (2.1%), basic chemicals (1.8%), and comprehensive (1.7%) led the gains last week, while computer (-1.3%), national defense and military industry (-1.2%), media (-0.8%), electronics (-0.7%), and social services (-0.5%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Analysis - In April, the domestic inflation level remained low, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI up 0.5% year - on - year, and PPI down 2.7% year - on - year with a 0.2 - percentage - point increase in the decline [7] - Financial data was weaker than seasonal. In April, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, weaker than market expectations; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - In April, new RMB loans in the financial caliber were 280 billion yuan, 450 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and government bonds continued to provide support; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 1.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Due to the under - performance of social financing and inflation data in April, the fundamental driving force for the stock index is still weak. After the first - stage Sino - US tariff negotiation, the stock index has recovered the technical gap, and the need for Central Huijin to support the market has weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions and be vigilant against adjustment risks [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different premium and discount rates for different contract periods [8]