投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 今日国债期货震荡整理。经过 7 月以来的连续回调，1 年期国债收益 率回升至政策利率附近，触发了政策利率的锚定效应，加上政策面强调下半 年要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，因此国债期货触底回升。不过近期央行 公开市场操作方面转向净回笼流动性，加上股市成交金额处于高位说明投 资者风险偏好偏强，国债的上行动能有所不足。总的来说，预计短期内国债 期货以区间震荡为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 1 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡整理 核心观点 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 4 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central focus of the article is on the upcoming maturity of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos in the central bank's open market operations next week, indicating significant liquidity movements in the financial system [1]. Group 1 - A total of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week [1]. - The maturity schedule includes 242 billion yuan on Monday, 197.3 billion yuan on Tuesday, 156.3 billion yuan on Wednesday, 203.5 billion yuan on Thursday, and 161.2 billion yuan on Friday [1]. - Additionally, there will be 100 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on Monday [1].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China issued the fourth phase of central bank bills for 2025 through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's debt instrument central settlement system [1] - The issuance amount was 30 billion yuan with a maturity period of 6 months [1] - The winning bid rate for the bills was set at 1.45% [1]

Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 closed at 1.63 with a 21.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.64 with an 11.29bp increase, GC001 at 1.51 with a 13.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 2.00bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a 0.90bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.45, 1.55, and 1.68 respectively, with increases of 1.94bp, 1.14bp, and 0.71bp; 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.43 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 125 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 486 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 4.3 billion, 18 billion, 9.2 billion, 6.45 billion, and 10.65 billion yuan maturing from Monday to next Friday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Quotes - The CSI 300 closed at 3889 with a 0.46% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2717 with a 0.86% decrease, the CSI 500 at 5716 with a 0.01% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 6068 with a 0.18% increase [6] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts also showed corresponding price changes and volume and position changes [6] - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.12% to 3889.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 2716.7, the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 5715.8, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.23% to 6068.1 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, non - bank finance (2.5%), automobile (2.4%), transportation (2.1%), basic chemicals (1.8%), and comprehensive (1.7%) led the gains last week, while computer (-1.3%), national defense and military industry (-1.2%), media (-0.8%), electronics (-0.7%), and social services (-0.5%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Analysis - In April, the domestic inflation level remained low, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year, core CPI up 0.5% year - on - year, and PPI down 2.7% year - on - year with a 0.2 - percentage - point increase in the decline [7] - Financial data was weaker than seasonal. In April, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, weaker than market expectations; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - In April, new RMB loans in the financial caliber were 280 billion yuan, 450 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and government bonds continued to provide support; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 1.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Due to the under - performance of social financing and inflation data in April, the fundamental driving force for the stock index is still weak. After the first - stage Sino - US tariff negotiation, the stock index has recovered the technical gap, and the need for Central Huijin to support the market has weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions and be vigilant against adjustment risks [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different premium and discount rates for different contract periods [8]