Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 16,524 billion yuan this week, resulting in a net injection of 12,469 billion yuan after 4,055 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - This week, the central bank also conducted a tender for 1,500 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, with 5,000 billion yuan of 182-day reverse repos maturing on Friday [1] - The central bank initiated a 10,000 billion yuan operation for 182-day reverse repos this week [1] Group 2 - In the week following the Spring Festival holiday (February 24-28), 22,524 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature, with 14,524 billion yuan maturing on February 24, 4,000 billion yuan on February 25, and another 4,000 billion yuan on February 26 [1] - Additionally, on February 25, there will be 3,000 billion yuan of MLF maturing and 1,500 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing [1]

值得一提的是，央行本周开展的逆回购操作中，包括4055亿元7天期逆回购操作和6000亿元14天期逆回 购操作，其中本周四和周五各开展了3000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 数据显示，本周央行公开市场开展了10055亿元逆回购操作，因本周有17615亿元逆回购到期，本周实现 净回笼7560亿元。此外，本周有7000亿元91天期买断式逆回购到期，央行开展了8000亿元91天期买断式 逆回购操作。 数据显示，下周央行公开市场将有4055亿元逆回购到期，其中下周一至下周五分别到期750亿元、1055 亿元、750亿元、1185亿元、315亿元。此外，下周五还将有5000亿元182天期买断式逆回购到期。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 数据显示，下周央行公开市场将有9515亿元逆回购到期，其中下周一至下周五分别到期861亿元、3586 亿元、2408亿元、1793亿元、867亿元。此外，下周五还将有1500亿元国库现金定存到期。本周央行公 开市场开展了9515亿元逆回购操作，因本周有1387亿元逆回购到期，本周实现净投放8128亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the last few trading days of the year, it is expected that there will be limited changes in the bond market. Interest rates may continue a mostly sideways trend. Attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties, while being vigilant about the high volatility of ultra - long - term varieties and the disturbance of rising cross - year funding prices on 1 - 2Y term varieties. Moderately seize the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds with a term of 7Y and below, as well as the term spread between 5Y - 3Y treasury bonds [2][17]. - In the long run, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, and price signals are the key [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funding Prices: Cross - year Funding Prices Rise - From December 19th to December 25th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 6.59 billion yuan. On the 25th, 40 billion yuan of MLF was carried out, with an over - renewal of 10 billion yuan [2][8]. - During the statistical period, the 14 - day funding price rose significantly, with R014 rising by 24bp. Starting from the 25th, as 7 - day funds began to cross the year, DR007 rose 10bp on that day but remained in the range of 1.4 - 1.5%. Overnight funding prices continued to decline, with DR001 dropping to a new low of 1.26% for the year. The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined slightly, with the 1Y certificate of deposit yield falling to around 1.64%, in line with the year - end seasonal characteristic of declining certificate of deposit yields [8]. 3.2 Primary Market: Issuance Nears the End - From December 19th to December 25th, only 11 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, indicating that interest - rate bond issuance is coming to an end [2][9]. 3.3 Secondary Market: The Yield Curve Continues to Steepen - From December 19th to December 25th, the yields of most treasury bonds declined, and the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds continued to weaken. In terms of term structure, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds declined more. The market traded on the expectation that the central bank would increase its support for the funding market and that the bond - buying scale in December would increase. The term spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds widened to 53bp, reaching a new high since January 7, 2025. Long - end interest rates are still in a state of game, with large intraday fluctuations and limited response to Beijing's real - estate relaxation policies. In addition, secondary - market trading volume also decreased seasonally at the year - end [2][10]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentals: Currently, it is hard to say that the bond market has returned to fundamental pricing. Factors such as policy expectations, asset price - to - value ratios, and institutional behavior may still be dominant. However, in the longer term, the influence of fundamentals on bond market pricing is expected to increase in 2026, with price signals being the key [15]. - Policy: The central bank released the communiqué of the fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting. Three adjustments in the statements are worthy of attention. First, the statement of "preventing idle funds" was deleted. Second, "promoting a decline in the overall social financing cost" was adjusted to "promoting the overall social financing cost to operate at a low level." Combining these two points, it can be understood that the current overall social financing cost is already at a low level. Further interest - rate cuts may face many constraints and may not necessarily achieve good results, but there are still various means to inject funds, and liquidity injection tools of various terms will be used flexibly. Third, "optimizing supply" was added after the statement of "expanding domestic demand." From the perspective of financial institutions, this may indicate that goals such as the total amount of credit issuance are further downplayed, and more emphasis is placed on the quality of issuance [15]. - Funding: As the year - end approaches, funding prices may rise slightly, but with the central bank's open - market operation support, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds is limited [15].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 663.8 billion yuan this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan due to 1.5118 trillion yuan of reverse repos maturing this week [1] - Additionally, there was a 1 trillion yuan 91-day buyout reverse repurchase operation this week, coinciding with the maturity of the same amount [1] - For the upcoming week, the central bank will have 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities scheduled from Monday to Friday totaling 10.76 billion, 15.63 billion, 7.93 billion, 18.08 billion, and 13.98 billion yuan respectively [1]

Core Insights - The central point of the article is the recent operations of the central bank in the open market, specifically focusing on reverse repos and the net liquidity injection into the market [1] Group 1: Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank conducted reverse repo operations amounting to 11,220 billion yuan, with 4,958 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - The net liquidity injection for the week was 6,262 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Upcoming Maturities - Next week, there will be 11,220 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities scheduled from Monday to Friday: 1,199 billion yuan, 4,038 billion yuan, 1,955 billion yuan, 1,900 billion yuan, and 2,128 billion yuan respectively [1] - Additionally, there will be 1,200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits maturing next Thursday [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. After continuous corrections since July, the 1-year Treasury bond yield rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate. Coupled with the policy emphasis on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. However, the central bank's recent open market operations have shifted to net liquidity withdrawal, and the high trading volume in the stock market indicates that investors have a strong risk appetite, so the upward momentum of Treasury bonds is insufficient. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On August 1st, the People's Bank of China announced that it conducted 126 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate through quantity tender. Both the bid volume and winning bid volume were 126 billion yuan, and the operating rate was 1.40%. There were 789.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the day [6]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The central focus of the article is on the upcoming maturity of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos in the central bank's open market operations next week, indicating significant liquidity movements in the financial system [1]. Group 1 - A total of 960.3 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week [1]. - The maturity schedule includes 242 billion yuan on Monday, 197.3 billion yuan on Tuesday, 156.3 billion yuan on Wednesday, 203.5 billion yuan on Thursday, and 161.2 billion yuan on Friday [1]. - Additionally, there will be 100 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on Monday [1].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China issued the fourth phase of central bank bills for 2025 through the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's debt instrument central settlement system [1] - The issuance amount was 30 billion yuan with a maturity period of 6 months [1] - The winning bid rate for the bills was set at 1.45% [1]