纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯的一席话，让市场重新审视美联储的降息路径。 "我仍然看到在近期进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的空间。"11月21日，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在智利圣地亚哥的一次会议上的这番表述，迅速点 燃了金融市场的交易热情。 这位在美联储拥有永久投票权的重量级人物指出，当前货币政策处于"适度限制性"状态，因此有可能在不久的将来进行调整。 市场对此反应迅速而强烈。据CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员对12月降息的概率预期从周四的39%飙升至73%。美股应声反弹，道指暴涨逾700点。 01 三位一体的影响力 在美联储的权力结构中，存在一个非正式的"领导三人组"（troika），这个小组由美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉 姆斯组成。 威廉姆斯作为纽约联储主席，在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中拥有永久投票权，而其他地区联储主席则轮流享有投票权。 纽约联储不仅仅是美联储系统中的一个分支机构，它还扮演着特殊角色——负责执行公开市场操作，与华尔街保持密切联系，并管理着庞大的资产负债表。 02 精准的时机 威廉姆斯的讲话出现在一个特别敏感的时刻。FOMC作为一个通常 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and weak domestic real estate sales [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The stability of the LPR was anticipated following the PBOC's decision to maintain the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate at 2.75% while renewing 500 billion yuan [3]. - The one-year LPR has remained stable since a 10 basis point reduction in June, while the five-year LPR has gradually decreased from 4.3% since August of the previous year, indicating a shift from aggressive monetary easing to more precise support measures [3][6]. - The current banking net interest margin has fallen below 1.7%, prompting banks to lower deposit rates to create space for LPR stability, reflecting a balance sought by the PBOC between bank profitability and financing costs for the real economy [5]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Balance - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by a balance between inflation and growth, with September's CPI showing zero growth and PPI rising by 0.4%, alongside rising international oil prices and potential import price increases due to currency fluctuations [6]. - Despite a GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3, concerns remain regarding a 9.1% decline in real estate investment and continuous negative export growth, suggesting that maintaining low interest rates supports manufacturing and infrastructure financing while avoiding additional pressure on the currency [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC's monetary policy committee has indicated that the LPR is likely to remain stable until at least December, with a focus on observing the effects of previous measures [7]. - Should certain conditions arise, such as a conclusion to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle or significant changes in domestic inflation or real estate sales, the PBOC may consider emergency measures [7]. - The PBOC is more inclined to use reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts rather than interest rate cuts, with an average RRR of 7.4%, allowing for liquidity release while reducing bank funding costs [7]. Group 4: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has emphasized the use of structural tools, with over 6 trillion yuan in re-lending and a focus on targeted infrastructure projects to avoid broad monetary easing while supporting weak sectors [8]. - The deepening of interest rate marketization through deposit rate cuts and adjustments to existing mortgage rates aims to alleviate bank margin pressures and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The unchanged five-year LPR, coupled with adjustments to real estate credit policies, suggests that certain cities may implement lower interest rate floors to stimulate local markets [8].

Group 1: Central Bank Strategies - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintains the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged, opting for targeted structural tools instead of broad rate cuts, reflecting caution towards financial risks and asset bubbles [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows a clear inclination towards easing, having cut rates by 25 basis points in August and signaling potential further cuts due to concerns over economic growth and employment [2] - The Swedish Riksbank maintains rates but indicates a possibility of future cuts, attributing slightly higher-than-expected inflation to temporary factors, which may require policy reassessment if economic activity does not improve [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) emphasizes stability and data dependency, maintaining rates unchanged while signaling no urgency to adjust policy despite external economic challenges [3] - The Bank of Canada (BoC) faces a complex situation influenced by tariff scenarios, with rising expectations for rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [3] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - Upcoming Australian CPI data will be crucial for RBA's future decisions, with potential inflationary pressures from electricity prices impacting market expectations for further rate cuts [4] - Japan's CPI data shows a mixed picture, with overall inflation slowing but core inflation remaining above 3%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's policy adjustments [5] - The U.S. PCE data, a preferred inflation measure for the Federal Reserve, will directly affect market expectations for rate cuts, with geopolitical factors potentially influencing long-term inflation trends [5] - Weak Canadian GDP data, coupled with low inflation concerns, may provide further justification for the BoC to pursue easing measures to support economic growth [5] Group 3: NVIDIA's Financial Outlook - NVIDIA is expected to report strong quarterly results, driven by explosive demand for AI computing power, but the focus will be on future guidance, particularly regarding its exposure to the Chinese market [6] - The agreement between the U.S. government and NVIDIA, requiring a portion of revenue from China to be paid, along with potential AI export taxes, introduces significant uncertainty for NVIDIA's operations in China [6] - KeyBanc anticipates that NVIDIA may exclude Chinese revenue from its guidance, signaling deepening impacts of U.S. tech restrictions [6] - NVIDIA's financial results will have broader implications for the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and the future of AI technology amidst U.S.-China tech competition [6]