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高盛:若美联储信誉受损 金价或逼近5000美元
智通财经网· 2025-09-04 06:37
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised and a small portion of U.S. Treasury bonds is converted to gold, gold prices could rise to nearly $5,000 per ounce [1][2] Group 1: Price Predictions - The base forecast suggests that gold prices will soar to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - In a tail risk scenario, gold prices could reach $4,500 per ounce [1] - If only 1% of privately held U.S. Treasury bonds are converted to gold, prices are expected to approach $5,000 per ounce [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Gold has been one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, with prices increasing by over one-third [1] - Gold prices recently surpassed $3,500 per ounce, marking a new high [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by central bank purchases and market speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon begin to cut interest rates [1] Group 3: Influencing Factors - Recent actions by U.S. President Donald Trump to strengthen control over the Federal Reserve, including efforts to push for the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, have further supported gold prices [1]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250611
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 09:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content For Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, with different shutdown times and a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak price support [2] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2] For Aluminum Ingots - The impact of previous news on ore prices has stabilized, alumina enterprises continue to resume production, and spot inventory is gradually increasing pressure [2] - In June, the overall off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry is strong, with the weekly starting rate dropping 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [2] - On June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from last Thursday and 34,000 tons from the end of May [2] - The core driver of inventory reduction is the tight supply, with a decrease in ingot casting volume and low actual arrivals, resulting in a shortage of circulating goods [2] - In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the annual low of 440,000 tons [2] - Overseas macro instability exists, and the price is under pressure in the off - season. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted within a range, with inventory reduction supporting the price [3] - Follow - up attention should be paid to macro expectations, geopolitical crises, ore resumption, and consumption release [3]
【世界说】美联储主席发出“最严厉”警告:关税升幅超预期,或将导致持续性经济损害
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-19 04:26
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the significant policy adjustments in tariffs by the Trump administration are unprecedented in modern history, placing the Fed in uncharted territory [1] - Powell emphasized that the current tariff increases have exceeded expectations, leading to ongoing uncertainty that could result in sustained economic damage, including weakened economic growth, rising unemployment, and accelerated inflation [2][3] - Most economists believe that the tariff policies will ultimately exacerbate inflation and increase unemployment, particularly with the implementation of large-scale "reciprocal tariffs" postponed until July [2][4] Group 2 - Powell predicted that inflation is "very likely" to intensify, indicating that part of the burden from tariffs will be borne by the public [3] - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 700 points (1.7% decrease), the S&P 500 falling by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 3.5% [3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that the global trade war will inflict damage on the global economy, with North America experiencing a more pronounced economic slowdown compared to other regions [4]